Ericsson stock (NASDAQ: ERIC) is down around 7% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), still not as bad a performance as the S&P 500, which was down 8.4% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned 4.1%, performing much better than the broader markets. Ericsson’s recent Q1 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $4.9 billion in Q1 ’21 to $5.42 billion in Q1 ’22. However, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a much faster rate, and operating income dropped from $518 million to $467 million over this period. Despite a drop in the effective tax rate, EPS dropped from $0.10 in Q1 ’21 to $0.09 in Q1 ’22.
Now, is ERIC stock set to rally strongly or could we expect more turbulence? We believe that there is a decent 55% chance of a rise in ERIC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ERIC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Ericsson (ERIC) Stock Return.
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Twenty-One Day: ERIC -7.4%, vs. S&P500 -8.4%; Outperformed market
(14% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- ERIC stock dropped 7.4% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) fall of 8.4%
- A change of -7.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 360 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 360 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 199 occasions
- This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: ERIC 4.1%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Outperformed market
(22% likelihood event; 45% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- ERIC stock jumped 4.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
- A change of 4.1% or more over ten trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 551 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 551 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 247 occasions
- This points to a 45% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: ERIC -0.8%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Underperformed market
(37% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)
- ERIC stock lost a marginal 0.8% over a five-day trading period ending 6/29/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 1.6% over this period.
- A change of -0.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 37% likelihood event, which has occurred 919 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
- Of these 919 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 492 occasions
- This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
|S&P 500 Return||-8%||-20%||71%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-7%||-25%||196%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/30/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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