Will The Rally Continue In EOG Resources Stock?
The shares of EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) observed a 10% growth in the past week assisted by an uptick in benchmark prices due to ongoing inventory draws in the U.S. Moreover, the company has committed to return $1.5 billion of dividends in 2021, almost 2x that of last year. Thus, the stock is a good pick for stable returns. Considering the trends in stock price data, EOG Resources stock is likely to move 6.1% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) according to our Machine Learning Engine.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding EOG Resources stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test EOG Resources stock expected return after a rise or fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF EOG stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, EOG stock moves an average of 2.1 percent, with a 55.9% probability of a positive return over this period.
Also, given a -5% movement for the stock over five trading days, it has historically witnessed an excess return of 0.4% compared to the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with a 47.6% percent probability of a positive excess return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of EOG Resources Stock Movements:
Answer:
Consider two situations,
Case 1: EOG Resources stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: EOG Resources stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the expected return for EOG Resources stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
EOG stock fares better after Case 2, with an expected return of 2.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 2.5% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how EOG Resources stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer:
If you buy and hold EOG Resources stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For EOG stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for EOG Resources after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer:
The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although EOG stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
EOG’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for EOG Resources stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.