What’s Happening With Emergent Biosolutions Stock?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Emergent Biosolutions (NYSE:EBS), a specialty biopharmaceutical company, has seen a fall of 15% over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is down 42% year-t0-date. EBS stock has had a tough year so far, with its manufacturing unit in Baltimore facing the heat after contamination of a a batch of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine. The U.S. FDA inspected the manufacturing facility and made nine observations. This was back in April and the company has been working to address all the concerns. Toward the end of July, the U.S. FDA approved the reopening of the Baltimore plant and since then the regulator has authorized multiple batches of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine from this facility. Emergent has also recently inked a deal with Canada-based Providence Therapeutics to manufacture its mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine candidate. 

While the re-opening of the plant is good news for Emergent, the company’s woes are far from over. The company also faces a lawsuit over alleged securities laws violations. The plaintiff alleged that the company failed to disclose to investors the issues at its Baltimore plant that would affect its ability to manufacture the vaccine. Also, there are allegations of the company’s senior executives selling more than $20 million in its stock with prior information of manufacturing problems at its Baltimore facility but the information was not made public. Investors are now concerned that the company may end up paying a hefty penalty, resulting in the stock failing to stage any recovery.

But now that EBS stock has seen a 15% drop over the last month or so, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going purely by historical performance, there is a high chance of a rise in EBS stock over the next month. Out of 165 instances in the last ten years that EBS stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 15% or more, 112 of them resulted in EBS stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 112 out of 165, or about a 68% chance of a rise in EBS stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Emergent Biosolutions Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving -6% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
  • After moving -10% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions
  • After moving -15% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 68% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) Stock Return: AI Predicts EBS Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: ENDP highest at 6.4%; EBS lowest at -5.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: ENDP highest at 43%; EBS lowest at -10%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: ENDP highest at 12%; EBS lowest at -15%

While EBS stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Merck vs. Emergent Biosolutions. Also, Emergent Biosolutions Stock Return summarizes EBS stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.

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