What Is The Likelihood of eBay’s Stock Rising?

eBay’s stock (NASDAQ: EBAY) fell by 2.3% over the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 fell by 1.2% over the last five trading days. For FY 2020 eBay reported revenues at $10.3 billion, up 19% y-o-y and earnings for continuing operations were at $3.58 per share compared to $1.79 in the previous year. The increase in EPS was due to a higher revenue and improvement in operating margin.  Now, is eBay’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 59% chance of a rise in eBay’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on eBay’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: EBAY -2.3%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Underperformed market

(19% likelihood event)

• eBay stock declined 2.3% over a five day trading period ending 2/22/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2%
• A change of -2.3% or more over five trading days is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 239 times out of 1256 in the last five years

10D: EBAY -1.1%, vs. S&P500 0.06%; Underperformed market

(16% likelihood event)

• eBay stock declined 1.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.06%
• A change of -1.1% or more over ten trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 201 times out of 1240 in the last five years

21D: EBAY 9.1%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Outperformed market

(12% likelihood event)

• eBay stock rose 9.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
• A change of 9.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 147 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While eBay stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for Altria Group, Inc vs. eBay shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.