Dish Network stock (NASDAQ: DISH) has seen over 30% appreciation in value in the last six months and currently trades at a little over $45 per share. The recent rally was driven by the company posting better than expected results from Q2 2020 to Q1 2021. Also, the announcement that Dish Network has decided to partner with cloud computing giant Amazon Web Service (AWS) to sell 5G wireless services to businesses has given a boost to the stock price. The gradual opening up of the economy and rollout of the vaccination program is expected to lead to recovery in consumer spending in the coming quarters. This will drive the commercial/industrial customers to come back to its fold as the current crisis gradually abates. Additionally, as the company continues on its track of 5G expansion, revenue and margins are set to improve in 2021.
But, after the recent rise, will DISH’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for DISH stock average more than 10% in the next six-month (126 trading days) period after experiencing a 30% rise over the previous six-month (126 trading days) period. The stock has close to an 80% probability of rising over the next six months. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding DISH stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test DISH stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
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IF DISH stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, DISH stock moves an average of 2.6 percent, with a 62% probability of a positive return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of DISH Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for DISH Network stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: DISH Network stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: DISH Network stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for DISH Network stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
DISH stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.4% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.6% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how DISH Network stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold DISH Network stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For DISH stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although DISH stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
DISH’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for DISH Network stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.