Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Dish’s Pay TV Market Share, a key driver of Dish Network’s (NASDAQ:DISH) stock. The member forecasts suggest that Dish’s Pay TV Market Share will trend slightly above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Dish competes with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) in the pay-TV market space. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $26 for Dish Network’s stock, about 45% above the current market price of around $18.
Around 69% of Dish Network’s stock value can be attributed to its satellite TV business, and hence the stock is quite sensitive to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.
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The average of Trefis member forecasts for Dish Network Pay TV Market Share indicate a decrease from 14.1% in 2010 to 13.8% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 13.5% in 2010 to 13.2% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network’s stock. In the past, Dish Network Pay TV Market Share has increased from 12.7% in 2006 to 13.3% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dish Network’s stock to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.