Disney Stock Drops After 2021 Earnings – Will It Bounce Back?

Walt Disney stock (NYSE: DIS) is down more than 9% in just the last one week, completely underperforming the S&P 500. If you look at the change in the stock over the last ten days and one month, it has declined (-5.6% and -8.5%, respectively) and underperformed the broader market on both occasions. The stock declined after Disney missed analysts’ expectations in Q4 2021 and reported very low subscriber growth for Disney+. The company’s revenues came in at $18.53 billion in Q4 2021 as against the consensus estimate of $18.79 billion. Similarly, EPS of $0.37/share for the fourth quarter also fell short of expectations of $0.51/share. The company added 2.1 million subscribers to Disney+, taking the total subscriptions to its streaming platform to 118.1 million. Before the earnings announcement, the company’s management had said they expect Disney+ to add “low single-digit millions” of streaming subscribers in Q4 2021. The actual addition of 2.1 million subscribers has disappointed the markets which had expected an addition of 9.4 million subscribers to the streaming platform.

Now, is DIS stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 59% chance of a rise in DIS stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on DIS Stock Chance of Rise. Additionally, to see how Disney stands in comparison to its peers, check our analysis on Walt Disney vs Cedar Fair.

Twenty-One Day: DIS -8.5%, vs. S&P500 5.6%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• DIS stock decreased 8.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.6%
• A change of -8.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a rare event with a 4% likelihood, which has occurred 100 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 100 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 59 occasions
• This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: DIS -5.6%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• DIS stock decreased 5.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
• A change of 5.6% or more over ten trading days is a rare event with 4% likelihood, which has occurred 100 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 100 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 56 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: DIS -9.1%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next five days)

• DIS stock decreased 9.1% over a five-day trading period ending 11/12/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
• A change of -9.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is an extremely rare event with 1% likelihood, which has occurred 19 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 19 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 9 occasions
• This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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