Limited Impact on Dell from Declining Desktop Prices

by Trefis Team
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A declining trend in Dell’s (NASDAQ:DELL) desktop pricing isn’t going to impact its stock significantly, as desktops constitute only around 2% of Dell’s stock. In the past week, Trefis members have created forecast for Dell’s desktop pricing and their forecasts suggest that the driver will trend roughly in-line with the declining estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.

Dell competes with PC manufacturers HP (NYSE:HPQ) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $17 for Dell’s stock, about 44% above the current market price of $12. Below is the chart showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for Dell’s desktop pricing in detail.

1. Dell Desktops Pricing

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Dell Desktops Pricing indicates a decrease from $574 in 2010 to around $213 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from around $606 in 2010 to $229 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small downside to the Trefis price estimate for Dell’s stock. In the past, Dell Desktops Pricing has decreased from $989 in 2004 to around $619 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dell’s stock to Dell Desktops Pricing.

Our complete analysis for Dell’s stock is here.

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