Tableau’s Increasing Customer Base To Fuel Growth In Q1 2019

Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA)  is set to announce its Q1 2019 results on May 2, 2019, followed by a conference call with analysts. The market expects the company to report revenue close to $286.8 million in Q1 2019, which would be an increase of 16.5% on a year-on-year basis. The increase is mainly expected as the company continues its continuous expansion and thus increasing customer base. Market expectation is for the company to report earnings of $-0.01 per share in Q1 2019, up from $-0.19 per share in the year-ago period.

Tableau reported $1.2 billion in Total Revenues in Fiscal 2018. This included 2 revenue streams:

• Business Analytics Software Licenses: $569.8 million in FY2018 (48.1% of Total Revenues). This includes revenues recognized from the sale of perpetual, term, and subscription licenses to new and existing customers.
• Maintenance and services Net Revenue: $615.1 million in FY2018 (51.9% of Total Revenues). This includes revenues recognized from the sale of maintenance agreements (including support) and also for training and professional services.

We have summarized our key expectations from the earnings announcement in our interactive dashboard – What Has Driven Tableau’s Revenues & Expenses Over Recent Quarters, And What Can We Expect For Full-Year 2019? In addition, here is more Information Technology Data.

Key Factors Affecting Earnings:

Revenue Growth to continue:

• Tableau has seen tremendous revenue growth, with only 2017 being an exception with just 6.1% growth year on year.
• The company’s tremendous growth is fueled by continuous innovation and expansion with the company reaching more than 86K customers at the end of FY 2018. Moreover, since the company’s move to subscription licensing the expansion has been much faster.
• The average licensing revenue per customer has fallen due to the shift to subscription licensing and is expected to be around $6.6K in 2019.
• The average maintenance and services revenue has grown strongly over the years (except 2017) and is expected at $8.1K in 2019.

Trend in Expenses:

• Sales & Marketing and Research and Development are its two main expenses and they contributed 77% to 81% of Total Expenses over the last 8 quarters. This is because the company’s focus is continuous innovation and expanding its reach. We expect the same to continue in Q1 2019.
  

Full Year Outlook:

• For the full year, we expect gross revenue to increase by 12.8% to $1.3 billion, led by an increase in the customer base due to its continuously expanding reach. In 2019 on average we expect more than 10K+ new customers to be added.
• Gross Profit margin is expected to remain in line at around 89%.

Trefis has a price estimate of $139 per share for Tableau’s stock. The value is based on the expectation that the company is on a high growth path as they continue to expand reach and new customers across geographies.

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