Will CSX Corporation Stock Continue To Rise?

-4.52%
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36.76
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Trefis
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CSX
CSX

The stock price of CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) has seen a rise of over 8% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is also up a good 38% over the last one year. The recent rise can be attributed to a wider rally in railroad stocks, following strong Q2 for all major companies, including CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific. CSX’s revenue of $3.0 billion was better than our forecast of $2.9 billion. Similarly, its earnings of $0.40 per share was comfortably above our forecast of $0.36. The company also closed its acquisition of Quality Carriers in July of this year, and it is expected to add 6% to the company’s top-line this year, while it won’t impact the EPS, given the costs associated with this transaction. Overall, a rebound in the economic growth and intermodal gains due to continued driver shortage in the trucking industry has led to a bullish sentiment for railroad stocks, including CSX.

But now that CSX stock has moved 8% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in CSX stock over the next month. Out of 353 instances in the last ten years that CSX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 20% or more, 208 of them resulted in CSX stock increasing over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 208 out of 353, or about a 59% chance of a rise in CSX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on CSX Corporation Stock Chances of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 6.2% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 47% of the occasions.
  • After moving 6.4% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 48% of the occasions
  • After moving 7.9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 59% of the occasions.
Relevant Articles
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  2. What Next For CSX Stock After A 19% Fall In Q3 Earnings?
  3. Should You Pick Humana Over CSX Stock For The Next Three Years?
  4. CSX’s Top Line To Decline In Q2?
  5. Will CSX Stock Recover To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level?
  6. Here’s What To Expect From CSX’s Q1

Predict average return on CSX Stock Return: AI Predicts CSX Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

CSX (CSX) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: CSX highest at 6.2%; CNI lowest at -2.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: CSX highest at 6.4%; CNI lowest at -1.5%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: CSX highest at 7.9%; CNI lowest at 0.7%

While CSX stock may have more room for upside, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Canadian Pacific Railway vs. D R Horton.

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