Salesforce Stock Gained 17% In A Week, What To Expect?

Salesforce’s stock (NYSE: CRM) has gained 17% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.7%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (17% vs 4.7%) and one month period (10% vs 1.1%). 

The company, a market leader in customer relationship management (CRM) technology, surpassed the street expectations in the recently released first-quarter FY2023 results (FY Feb-Jan). It posted total revenues of $7.4 billion – up 24% y-o-y, primarily driven by a similar increase in the subscription & support revenues. The subscription & support stream includes an 18% growth in the Salesforce CRM category (sales, service, and marketing & commerce cloud), followed by a 36% jump in the cloud services sub-segment (platform, data, and other). Further, the firm increased its profit guidance for FY2023. Overall, the above factors boosted investor confidence in the stock.  

Now, is Salesforce stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 57% chance of a rise in Salesforce stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Salesforce Stock Chance of Rise.

We estimate Salesforce’s valuation to be around $241 per share which is 29% above the current market price. 

Twenty-One Day: CRM 10%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market

(12% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Salesforce stock gained 10% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
• A change of 10% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 313 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 313 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 178 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CRM 17%, vs. S&P500 4.7%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 35% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Salesforce stock increased 17% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 4.7%
• A change of 17% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 23 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 23 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 8 occasions
• This points to a 35% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CRM 17%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; very low probability of rise over next five days)

• Salesforce stock improved 17% over a five-day trading period ending 06/7/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.7%
• A change of 17% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 6 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these six instances, the stock has not seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on any occasion
• This points to a very low probability of rising over the next five days.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/8/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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