Salesforce stock (NYSE: CRM) has gained 1.7% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.2%). Further, the same trend was observed over one month (7.8% vs 5.7%). The recent volatility in software stocks is due to lower demand for services as compared to the pandemic time and expected interest rate hikes by the Fed. (Note – CRM has changed its legal name from “Salesforce.com” to “Salesforce,” effective 4th April 2022.)
The company is a market leader in customer relationship management (CRM) technology. It has benefited from higher IT spending by companies across sectors, especially in digital transformation projects, and inorganic growth derived from acquisitions. Further, the firm posted better than expected results in the fourth quarter of FY2022 (FY Feb –Jan). It also increased the revenue forecast for Q1 and full-year FY2023.
Now, is Salesforce stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 57% chance of a rise in Salesforce stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Salesforce Stock Chance of Rise.
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We estimate Salesforce’s valuation to be around $299 per share which is 37% above the current market price.
Twenty-One Day: CRM 7.8%, vs. S&P500 5.7%; Outperformed market
(20% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Salesforce stock gained 7.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) gain of 5.7%
- A change of 7.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 496 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 496 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 281 occasions
- This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: CRM 2.4%, vs. S&P500 2.8%; Underperformed market
(41% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Salesforce stock increased 2.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 2.8%
- A change of 2.4% or more over ten trading days is a 41% likelihood event, which has occurred 1039 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 1039 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 586 occasions
- This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: CRM 1.7%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market
(32% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)
- Salesforce stock gained 1.7% over a five-day trading period ending 04/04/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.2%
- A change of 1.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 32% likelihood event, which has occurred 816 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 816 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 428 occasions
- This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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