Should You Enter Salesforce.com’s Stock After Its Fall Last Month?

Salesforce.com’s stock (NYSE: CRM) declined by 11% in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index fell by only 1.2% in the last twenty-one trading days. The stock had fallen in December 2021 after news of the fast spreading omicron variant of coronavirus and a subsequent tech stock sell-off. Now, is CRM stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 65% chance of a rise in CRM stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Salesforce.com’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

We estimate Salesforce’s Valuation to be around $327 per share which is 37% above the current market price. This represents a P/EBITDA multiple of 51 for the company based on our forecast for Salesforce’s EBITDA for the current fiscal year.

Five Days: CRM 1.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(45% event probability)

• Salesforce.com’s stock rose 1.3% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.3%
• A change of 1.3% or more over five trading days has a 45% event probability, which has occurred 1124 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Ten Days: CRM -9%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market

(5% event probability)

• Salesforce.com’s stock declined 9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.1%
• A change of -9% or more over ten trading days has a 5% event probability, which has occurred 121 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: CRM -11%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Underperformed market

(5% event probability)

• Salesforce.com’s stock declined 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.2%
• A change of -11% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 5% event probability, which has occurred 132 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

While CRM stock is likely go up in the near term, there are other stocks that look like a Better Bet Than CRM Stock. Also, salesforce.com Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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