What’s Next For Coherent Stock After MKS Instruments’ Acquisition Bid?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Coherent Inc. (COHR), a laser equipment and components manufacturer, has seen a solid 30% rise over the last ten trading days, while it’s up 14% over the last five trading days, and going by the historical data, the stock may correct going forward. The rise can largely be attributed to a bid from MKS Instruments to acquire Coherent for $240 a share, reflecting a 15% premium over the earlier announced bid by Lumentum.

Looking at the recent rally, the 30% rise for COHR stock over the last 10 days compares with just 2.5% gains seen in the broader S&P 500 index. Now, is COHR stock poised to gain further? Doesn’t look that way. While COHR stock has seen a massive 2.7x rally since the lows of March 2020, the company being an acquisition target has kept the stock price buzzing over the recent past. Given the recent rally in the stock, and based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last few years, we believe that there is a 53% chance of a drop in COHR stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). However, any counter bid by Lumentum valuing Coherent higher would result in the stock seeing further gains. See our analysis on Coherent Stock Chances of Rise for more details. Curious about the possibility of rising over the next quarter? Check out the COHR Stock AI Dashboard: Chances Of Rise And Fall for a variety of scenarios on how COHR stock could move.

Five Days: COHR 14%, vs. S&P500 0.4%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event)

  • Coherent stock rose 14% over a five-day trading period ending 2/18/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.4%
  • A change of 14% or more over five trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 51 times out of 1256 in the last five years

Ten Days: COHR 30%, vs. S&P500 2.5%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event)

  • Coherent stock rose 30% over the last 10 trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.5%
  • A change of 30% or more over 10 trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 38 times out of 1240 in the last five years

While COHR stock could see some correction, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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