CME’s November Volume Decline Is Not Cause For Concern

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After a solid year-on-year performance across most of its major asset classes through October, CME Group‘s (NASDAQ:CME) trading volumes saw a dip in November, with its daily volumes coming in 14% below the year ago levels. However, the volumes did see 21% growth from the previous month. The possibility of a rate hike in the November 2016 led to a phenomenal rise in interest rate derivative volumes, and the tough year-on-year comp led to a 21% decline in November 2017. However, recent rate hikes and the Fed’s indications of further hikes in the year ahead has resulted in continued investor interest in the asset class, with trading volumes 23% ahead of the levels seen in October.

Energy derivatives maintained solid volumes, but the marginal decline from the year ago levels was likely due to the strong demand towards the end of 2016 with the surge in oil prices due to cuts in production. Meanwhile, metal derivatives saw 4% growth in trading volumes. We expect further volume growth going forward with further improvement in the U.S. economy.

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We have a $120 price estimate for CME’s stock, which is below the current market price.

See the full Trefis analysis for CME Group.

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