With Iron Ore Price Dropping Below $100, How’s Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Doing?

+95.16%
Upside
13.27
Market
25.90
Trefis
CLF: Cleveland-Cliffs logo
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs

Cleveland-Cliffs stock (NYSE: CLF) has dropped 12% in the last one month, completely underperforming the S&P 500 which increased 1% during this period. If you look at the change in stock price over the last ten days, CLF stock again underperformed the market by dropping almost 3%. The drop in CLF stock recently has been driven by the fall in iron ore prices. The global price of iron ore per ton has fallen below $100. It currently stands at $94, which marks a decrease of 22% from the level of $121/ton seen a month back. Efforts of decarbonization in China have led to the drop in iron ore prices. Additionally, the prices of steel are also likely to go down as Chinese steel supply is expected to rise in early 2022. With CLF being exposed to both the metals, the stock fell 12% in a month.

Now, is CLF stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 49% chance of a rise in CLF stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CLF Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about how Cleveland-Cliffs stands in comparison to its peers, see our analysis on Cleveland-Cliffs vs Reliance Steel & Aluminum

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  6. Is Cleveland-Cliffs Set To Rise Further After Its 70% Rally?

Twenty-One Day: CLF -12%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Underperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • CLF stock decreased 12% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
  • A change of -12% or more over twenty-one trading days is an event with a 25% likelihood, which has occurred 634 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 634 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 310 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CLF -2.8%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Underperformed market

(42% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • CLF stock decreased 2.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 1%
  • A change of -2.8% or more over ten trading days is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 1057 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1057 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 506 occasions
  • This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CLF 1.7%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Outperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next five days)

  • CLF stock increased 1.7% over a five-day trading period ending 11/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
  • A change of 1.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 966 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 966 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 457 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Nov 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
CLF Return -12% 50% 160%
S&P 500 Return 1% 22% 105%
Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% 46% 297%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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