Cigna stock (NYSE: CI), a health insurance and pharmacy services management company, has seen a 9% rise in a month, significantly outperforming the broader S&P500 index, which fell 5%. CI stock is currently trading close to its all-time high of $282. This can be attributed to an upward revision on the stock by some of the Wall Street research firms, citing benefits from the Humira biosimilar over the next few years. Also, the company recently completed the divestiture of life, accident, and supplemental benefits business in Asia to Chubb for $5.4 billion. Cigna plans to use the proceeds on stock repurchases. It plans to spend at least $7 billion on share repurchases in 2022, which has aided its stock price growth.
But now that CI stock has seen a rise of 9% in a month will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise for CI stock over the next month. Of 398 instances in the last ten years that CI stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 9% or more, 224 resulted in CI stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 224 out of 398, or about a 56% chance of a rise in CI stock over the next month. See our analysis of Cigna Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving 5.5% or more over five days, the stock rose on 51% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving 4.3% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 52% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving 8.5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 56% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in CI stock over the next five, ten, and twenty-one days, implying that it may continue to make fresh highs in the near term.
- Five-Day Return: CI highest at 5.5%; HCA lowest at -1.4%
- Ten-Day Return: CI highest at 4.3%; HCA lowest at -5.4%
- Twenty-One Day Return: CNC highest at 8.6%; HCA lowest at -15.5%
Despite higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, CI has seen a rise of 19% this year. But can it drop from here? See how low Cigna stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||1%||-20%||71%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||3%||-21%||211%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/13/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016