BP Stock Up 11% Over Last Month. What’s Next?

BP: BP logo

BP plc stock (NYSE: BP), a European integrated energy major, has increased by 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $34. BP’s recent financial performance has been supported by higher energy prices, which climbed to over $120 a barrel earlier this year. Currently, Brent, the international benchmark, trades at $86/barrel at the time of writing. In the third quarter, the company’s top line grew 52% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $55.1 billion (but missed the analyst estimate by $5.8 billion) and the company saw a replacement-cost profit of $8.2 billion, down 4% y-o-y. The company reported weaker refining margins and lower liquids realizations in comparison to the second quarter, partially offset by exceptional gas marketing and higher gas realizations. In the upcoming Q4 2022, BP expects its upstream production on a reported basis to be slightly lower compared with the third quarter.

Despite the healthy demand for physical crude oil, certain economic factors could likely dampen the outlook for oil demand. Covid-19 cases are once again rising in China, and the country’s struggle to get its Covid cases under control with its zero-Covid policy could impact the demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer. In addition, the continued rising interest rates in the U.S. could also lead to a weakness in the market.

Now, is BP stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a very low chance (~35%) of a rise in BP stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of BP’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data

[1] Returns of 4.2% or higher over a five-day period on 290 occasions out of 2518 (12%); Stock rose in the next five days in 146 of these 290 instances (50%)

[2] Returns of 4% or higher over the ten-day period on 528 occasions out of 2519 (21%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 277 of these 528 instances (52%)

[3] Returns of 11% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 185 occasions out of 2516 (7%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 65 of these 185 instances (35%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. BP Peers shows how BP’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead?  Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 BP Return 3% 29% 1%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -17% 76%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 3% -20% 218%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/18/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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