What’s Behind 300% Jump In Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular Drugs Sales In The Last 4 Years?

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Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (NYSE: BMY) cardiovascular drug sales have surged 326% from $1.9 billion in 2015 to $7.9 billion in 2019, with the massive success of its anti-coagulant, Eliquis. The drug has seen increased acceptance among physicians, resulting in market share gains. With Eliquis, Bristol-Myers Squibb is now tops in the cardiovascular drugs market, accounting for 33% of total revenues from 6 large pharmaceutical companies with a cardiovascular portfolio, which is 1.4x the size of Pfizer’s segment sales, and 2.6x the size of Johnson & Johnson’s cardiovascular drugs sales.

Bristol-Myers Squibb has seen rapid growth over the recent years, adding $6.0 billion over 2015-19, which compares with $2.6 billion total change in the market size, as other companies saw decline in segment sales over the same period. Novartis added $1.7 billion, while Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson each lost $0.1 billion, and Merck and AstraZeneca lost over $2 billion each in cardiovascular drugs sales between 2015 and 2019. We provide more details on our interactive dashboard analysis on how big is Bristol-Myers Squibb’s in cardiovascular drugs market, parts of which are highlighted below.

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular Drugs Sales Are Much Higher Than Its Peers

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb’s cardiovascular drugs sales grew at a CAGR of 45% from $1.9 billion in 2015 to $7.9 billion in 2019, and they are estimated to be north of $10 billion in 2021. Though cardiovascular will likely account for only 20% of the company’s total sales in 2021. The company’s largest segment is oncology, as detailed in our Bristol-Myers Squibb Revenues dashboard.
  • Pfizer’s cardiovascular drugs sales have hovered around the $5.8 billion mark over the past few years, but it could decline to $5.2 billion in 2021, due to increased competition from other pharmaceutical companies.
  • Johnson & Johnson saw its cardiovascular drugs sales decline from $3.2 billion in 2015 to $3.0 billion in 2019, and it could decline further to $2.7 billion in 2021, due to patent expiry of its key drug Xarelto.
  • Novartis has seen sharp growth in its cardiovascular drugs sales between 2016 and 2019, and this trend will likely continue in the near term, led by higher sales of Entresto.
  • Merck’s cardiovascular drugs sales have declined sharply from $3.8 billion in 2015 to $1.7 billion in 2019, and it could decline to $1.5 billion in 2021, due to increased competition for Zetia.
  • AstraZeneca’s cardiovascular drugs sales have declined sharply from $7.0 billion in 2015 to $4.1 billion in 2019, and it could decline to $3.6 billion in 2021, due to increased competition for Crestor.
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Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Share In Cardiovascular Drugs Market Has Been On A Rise

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb’s share in cardiovascular drugs market grew from 13% in 2015 to 33% in 2019, and it could grow to 39% in 2021.
  • This can be attributed to faster growth for Bristol-Myers Squibb’s cardiovascular drugs portfolio, as compared to its peers.
  • Cardiovascular drugs market refers to the total sales of cardiovascular drugs of Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, AstraZeneca, and Merck. The totals does not include drugs related to diabetes.

Interestingly, There Is Only One Drug ~ Eliquis ~ In Bristol-Myers Squibb Cardiovascular Portfolio, And It Has Seen Stellar Growth Over The Recent Years

  • Eliquis is a leading novel oral anticoagulant. Anticoagulants refers to blood thinners that treats, prevents, and reduces the risk of blood clotting.
  • The drug has seen stellar growth in the recent years, led by increased acceptance among the physicians, which has led to the drug becoming the market leader in total prescriptions.
  • Eliquis has added over $1 billion in sales each year since 2014.
  • The strong growth could continue for Eliquis in the coming years, adding over $1 billion plus in sales each year, in our view.
  • Higher revenues will aid the company’s stock price growth. As per Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Valuation by Trefis, we have a price estimate of $68 per share for BMY stock, reflecting over 35% growth from the current levels.

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Eliquis Is Top Selling Cardiovascular Drug

  • Other top selling cardiovascular drugs include Johnson & Johnson’s Xarelto, Boehringer Ingelheim’s Pradaxa, Novartis’ Entresto, Daiichi Sankyo’s Lixiana and Savaysa, Pfizer’s Zetia and Lipitor, Portola’s new drug Bevyxxa, and AstraZeneca’s Crestor and Brilinta.

Eliquis Sales Will Likely Continue To Grow Over The Coming Years Because Its Period of Market Exclusivity Ends Much Later Than Other Drugs, As Shown Below

Loss of Market Exclusivity:

  • Eliquis: 2026
  • Xarelto: 2024
  • Pradaxa: 2021
  • Bevyxxa: 2020
  • Lixiana and Savaysa: 2023
  • Entresto: 2023

Coronavirus Impact On BMY Stock

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s stock has seen a 22% drop since January 31 (through March 24), after the WHO declared a global health emergency. The markets have been on a decline since, amid fears of global recession after the coronavirus outbreak outside of China, and oil price war. Bristol-Myers Squibb will likely outperform the broader markets, when the current crisis winds down, given that Eliquis and Revlimid will continue to drive its earnings growth. Even during the 2008-09 crisis, BMY stock outperformed the broader markets.

Potential gains in BMY stock, and its timing, hinges on the broader containment of the coronavirus spread – our dashboard forecasting US COVID-19 cases with cross-country comparisons analyzes expected recovery time-frames and possible spread of the virus.

Further, our dashboard -28% Coronavirus crash vs 4 Historic crashes builds a complete macro picture and complements our analyses of Coronavirus impact on a diverse set of healthcare companies. The complete set of coronavirus impact and timing analyses is available here.

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