A Look At Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular Drugs Segment

by Trefis Team
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We estimate that Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (NYSE:BMY) Cardiovascular drugs account for around 23% of the company’s value, according to our estimates. Currently, the only drug in this segment is Eliquis. We expect solid growth for Eliquis in the near term, and believe that the sales will likely peak at over $6 billion. The patent exclusivity for these drugs is expected to expire in 2026, in the U.S., EU, and Japan. In the long run, we expect the segment revenues to decline after patent expiration, as the drugs will face biosimilar competition. Currently, there is no new compound in this segment being tested in the company’s phase 3 pipeline. We have created an interactive dashboard on Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular drugs segment – A Look At Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular Drugs Segment. You can adjust the revenue and margin drivers to see the impact on the company’s overall revenues, earnings, and price estimate.

Expect Solid Growth In Eliquis’ Sales In The Near Term

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular drugs’ revenue fell sharply from $8 billion in 2011 to nearly $635 million in 2013, as Avapro and Plavix lost to generic competition. However, the division’s revenue has increased sharply in the recent years, as blood thinner Eliquis gained traction. The segment revenues stood at $4.9 billion in 2017, and we expect it to continue to grow in the coming years to north of $6 billion.

Eliquis was initially approved for treatment of venous thromboembolic events (VTE), and prevention of heart attacks in patients with an irregular heart beat, not caused by a heart valve problem, called non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in 2012. By the end of July 2014, the European Commission and the U.S. FDA approved the drug for the treatment of Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) and Pulmonary Embolism (PE), as well as for the prevention of a recurrence of these conditions.

Eliquis has broken into a crowded and competitive therapeutic area of cardiovascular diseases, and has gained market share in the recent past. It should be noted that the drug was co-developed by Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer. The sales for Bristol-Myers Squibb have grown at an average annual rate of 89% over the last 3 years. Eliquis is expected to be safer than warfarin, and the partnership with Pfizer has given it a strong global reach, thereby aiding the revenue growth. Eliquis has already gained the top spot in hospitals and among cardiologists, and displaced Johnson & Johnson’s Xarelto to become the market leader in prescription ranking in 2017. The company’s management has stated that Eliquis’ sales will likely see a significant growth in the coming years.

You can look at Bristol-Myers Squibb’s other segments, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Total Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Virology Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Oncology Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Cardiovascular Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Immunology Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Mature Products & Other Revenues Historical Trend And Forecast here.

We currently have a $59 price estimate for Bristol-Myers Squibb, which is roughly 7% ahead of the current market price.

 

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