A Snapshot Of Bristol Myers Squibb’s Phase 3 Drug Pipeline

by Trefis Team
Bristol-Myers Squibb
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We estimate that Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (NYSE:BMY) phase 3 drug pipeline (not counting the enhancement of currently marketed products) could be worth around $2 billion. We have created an interactive dashboard on BMY’s phase 3 pipeline, which includes breakup of new compound, estimated peak sales, probability of approval, and the resulting probability adjusted revenues. Note that you can adjust the probability, and estimated peak sales of the new compounds.

Prostvac Is The Key Drug In Phase 3 Pipeline

  • We estimate 50% probability of a drug being approved by the regulators.
  • Prostvac peak sales are estimated to be $1.3 billion.
  • The drug is expected to be approved in 2018.
  • Our current forecast for the drug sales to achieve full potential is 7 years.

BMY’s Overall Pipeline

  • IDO Inhibitor(1) is also currently under phase 3 trial.
  • While BMY’s phase 3 pipeline of new drugs looks small, the company is focused on expanding Opdivo’s therapeutic uses, and is testing the drug with different combinations, such as Yervoy among others.
  • Opdivo is currently being tested alone and in different combinations for the treatment of different tumor types, including lung, head & neck, liver, kidney, bladder and gastric. 
  • Overall, the company has 41 new compounds in different stages of trials.

Our price estimate of $60 for Bristol Myers Squibb implies a discount of over 10% to the market.

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