Will BeiGene Stock Rebound After A 15% Fall Over The Last Month?

BGNE: BeiGene logo
BGNE
BeiGene

The stock price of BeiGene (NASDAQ: BGNE), a China-based biotechnology company focused on developing molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drug candidates, has seen a fall of 15% over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is up 5% over the last week. The fall over the last month or so can be attributed to rising concerns of a forced delisting of BGNE stock from Nasdaq, following the tensions between China and the U.S. The company got listed in Shanghai last month, and it is now listed across three geographies – the U.S., Hong Kong, and Shanghai. Delisting on Nasdaq would mean loss of its U.S. investors. But there are more concerns surrounding BGNE stock. For instance, a clinical study done in China may not be enough to get an approval in the U.S., and a comparative study may be required for the U.S., resulting in increased costs and delay in drug approvals. 

On a positive note, BeiGene last month announced an agreement with Novartis to develop, manufacture, and commercialize BeiGene’s investigational TIGIT (an inhibitory receptor expressed on lymphocytes) inhibitor – Ociperlimab – used to treat certain forms of multiple sclerosis – in North America, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, Novartis has granted BeiGene rights to market and promote five approved Novartis’ oncology products – Tafinlar, Mekinist, Votrient, Afinitor, and Zykadia, in China.

But now that BGNE stock has seen a 15% fall over the last month or so, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in BGNE stock over the next month. Out of 107 instances in the last six years that BGNE stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 15% or more, 84 of them resulted in BGNE stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 84 out of 107, or about a 79% chance of a rise in BGNE stock over the coming month. See our analysis on BeiGene Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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While BGNE stock may see higher levels over the next month, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out BeiGene Stock Comparison With Peers to see how BGNE stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last six years data

  • After moving 4.8% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 55% of the occasions.
  • After moving -13.6% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 67% of the occasions
  • After moving -15.2% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 79% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that there is a higher chance of a rise in BGNE stock over the next five days, ten days, as well as one month period.

BeiGene, (BGNE) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: ADAP highest at 6.0%; HZNP lowest at -7.5%
  • Ten-Day Return: IMTX highest at -0.8%; HZNP lowest at -16.5%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: ADAP highest at 9.3%; BGNE lowest at -15.2%

While BGNE stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Eli Lilly vs. Qorvo

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 BGNE Return -13% -13% 678%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -1% 111%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -7% -7% 265%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/14/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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