What’s Next For BlackBerry Stock After A 4% Move Last Week?

by Trefis Team
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BlackBerry stock (NYSE: BB), the smartphone pioneer that has since reinvented itself as a provider of cybersecurity and automotive software, has risen by 4.3% over the last week (five trading days). The gains, which come despite the broader S&P 500 declining by about 0.5% over the last week, are driven primarily by BlackBerry’s stronger than expected Q2 results which were published on Wednesday. Although revenues declined, falling 34% year-over-year to $175 million due to lower licensing revenue which is typically lumpy, this was better than expected. Investors were also likely pleased that BlackBerry is faring better in the cyber security market, with its cyber security products posting robust sequential billings and revenue growth.

But will the company’s stock continue to decline over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock imminent? Based on trends in the company’s stock price over the last ten years, the Trefis Machine Learning Engine finds that average returns for BB stock to be around 1% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 4.3% rise in a week (five trading days).

Per the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, BlackBerry stock price forecast for a month from now is around $11 – up marginally from its current market price. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding BlackBerry stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the interactive dashboard. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

Also, you can understand how BlackBerry’s revenues have changed over the years along with trends in revenues for its closest peers in a separate dashboard analysis.

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF BB stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, BB stock moves an average of 2.7%, with a 46% probability of a positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of  BlackBerry Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the price forecast for BlackBerry stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: BlackBerry stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: BlackBerry stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the price forecast for BlackBerry stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

BB stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 2.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 0.8% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $11 in Case 1 and a figure of $11 in Case 2 using BB market price of $10.60 on 9/24/2021.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for BlackBerry stock is likely to changes after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold BlackBerry stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For BB stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although BB stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

BB’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for BlackBerry stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While BlackBerry stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are other companies that could offer better returns. Our analysis on BlackBerry Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

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