Baxter stock (NYSE: BAX) has seen a fall of 9% in a month, while it’s down 42% this year. This compares with -5% and -20% returns for the broader S&P500 index over the same periods, respectively. The broader markets have been falling of late on positive economic data, which implies that the Fed may have to continue to increase interest rates, likely resulting in a recession in 2023. Baxter also faces risks from a recession, primarily a decline in hospital spending that could weigh on its sales growth.
But now that BAX stock has seen a 9% fall in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in BAX stock over the next month. BAX stock has seen a move of -9% or more 111 times in the last ten years. Of those, 63 resulted in BAX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 63 out of 111, or a 57% chance of a rise in BAX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Baxter Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving -1.2% or more over five days, the stock rose on 57% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -4.7% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 67% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -9.4% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 57% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in BAX stock over the next five, ten, and twenty-one days.
Baxter (BAX) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500
- Five-Day Return: CAH highest at 2.5%; BAX lowest at -1.2%
- Ten-Day Return: EW highest at 2.7%; BAX lowest at -4.7%
- Twenty-One Days Return: BDX highest at 7.6%; BAX lowest at -9.4%
While BAX stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how Baxter’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Phibro Animal Health vs. Tri Pointe Homes.
|S&P 500 Return||-6%||-20%||71%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-6%||-23%||212%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/23/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016