What Is The Likelihood Of A Rise In Alibaba’s Stock?

BABA: Alibaba Group logo
Alibaba Group

Alibaba’s stock (NYSE: BABA) has risen by 4% over the last five trading days. In comparison the broader S&P500 rose by 0.6% over the last five trading days. Alibaba’s stock witnessed a rise in the last couple of weeks after the release of FY 2021 results (ended March 2021) on May 13, 2021. The company recorded revenue of RMB 717 billion ($109.5 billion), up 41% y-o-y. In Q4 the company was hit with an anti-monopoly fine in China of RMB 18 billion ($2.8 billion) despite which for the full year earnings grew by 30% y-o-y to RMB 172 billion ($26.3 billion). Will the company continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a fall in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using multiple years of historical stock data, returns for BABA’s stock average around 1.7% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 4% rise in a week (five trading days). Further, the stock is likely to outperform S&P500 returns by 0.6% over the next month (twenty-one trading days).

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Alibaba’s stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Alibaba’s stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

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IF BABA stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, BABA stock moves an average of 2.6%, which implies an excess return of 0.6% compared to the S&P500.

More importantly, there is a 57.6% probability of a positive return over the next twenty-one trading days and a 51.6% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over five trading days.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Alibaba Group Stock Movements

Question 1: Is the average return for Alibaba Group stock higher after a drop?


Case 1: Alibaba Group stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Alibaba Group stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Alibaba Group stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

BABA stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.3% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Alibaba Group stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?


If you buy and hold Alibaba Group stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For BABA stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Alibaba Group after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?


The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

BABA’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Alibaba Group stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While Alibaba stock may have moved, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Amazon Peer Comparisons to see how Amazon compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

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