What’s Next For Axsome Therapeutics Stock After A 13% Rise In A Month?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM), a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapies for central nervous system conditions, has seen a 13% rise over the last twenty-one trading sessions. In a recent development, the company announced that it plans to submit a new drug application for one of its pipeline candidates – AXS-14 – a treatment for fibromyalgia, in Q4 2022. The peak sales for AXS-14 are estimated to be in the range of $500 million to $1.0 billion.

Now that AXSM stock has seen a rise of 13% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in AXSM stock over the next month. Out of 341 instances in the last six years that Axsome stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 13% or more, 176 of them resulted in AXSM stock falling over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 176 out of 341, or about 52% chance of a rise in AXSM stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Axsome Therapeutics Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Twenty-One Days: AXSM 13%, vs. S&P500 2.5%; Outperformed market

(24% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Axsome Therapeutics stock rose 13% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.5%
  • A change of 13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 341 times out of 1444 in the last 6 years
  • Of these 341 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 176 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Five Days: AXSM -2.9%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 5 days)

  • Axsome Therapeutics stock declined 2.9% over a five-day trading period ending 6/17/2021, compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.2%
  • A change of -2.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 486 times out of 1444 in the last 6 years
  • Of these 486 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 257 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

While AXSM stock may continue to rise, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Johnson & Johnson vs Quest Diagnostics.

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