What Would Happen If American Express Can Keep Its Transaction Fees High

-5.96%
Downside
218
Market
205
Trefis
AXP: American Express Company logo
AXP
American Express Company

American Express (NYSE: AXP) has tried to keep the distribution of cards issued such that only customers with a potentially high rate of spending get access to them. This allows the company to charge a high transaction fee and hence generate more revenue. The company’s revenue from transaction fees is roughly two thirds of its overall revenue. Therefore, keeping it growing at a good rate is important for the company. However, we expect the company’s transaction fee rate to decline going forward.

The table below models two scenarios and compares them against our expectations for the company. In the first scenario, the company’s transaction fee charged on cards in the U.S. does not decline and instead returns to 2013 levels. This could result in a 9.2% increase in our price estimate for the company. In the second scenario, the transaction fee charged declines faster than expected, resulting in a 7.9% decline in our price estimate for the company.

axp transaction fee impact

 

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Have more questions about American Express? See the links below:

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for American Express
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