How Much Can Destiny 2 Add To Activision Blizzard’s Top Line?

by Trefis Team
Activision Blizzard
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Activision Blizzard‘s (NYSE:ATVI) newly launched game Destiny 2 has the potential to add between 5% and 10% to the company’s revenue. This is based on our assumption that the game will have between 6 million and 10 million monthly active users (MAUs) at its peak, and will earn $50-60 per active user. Currently, Activision Blizzard‘s console and PC games have around 90 million MAUs spread across 9 key franchises: Call of Duty, Destiny, Skylanders, World of Warcraft, Overwatch, Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, Starcraft and Diablo. For the purpose of this discussion, we exclude smaller titles and Activision Blizzard’s mobile gaming division, King Digital, which has a different focus. This gives us an estimated average of 10 million MAUs per key title. Additionally, the average revenue per MAU  for console and PC games is close to $55, with the figure being higher for Blizzard’s franchises. If Destiny 2 were to become extremely popular, as some early indicators suggest, and get nearly 10 million MAUs over the course of the next year, it could imply over $500 million in additional revenue, or roughly 8% of what the company currently earns.

Destiny 2 fixes several of the issues that the original Destiny had. The story, graphics and gameplay have improved significantly and the game has received positive reviews. Destiny 2 is priced at $60 and will rely on additional paid content, digital packs and in-game transactions to generate ongoing revenue. The in-game transaction revenue model has gained a lot of ground in recent years. This is why some gaming stocks, in particular Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts, have done extremely well this year. The number of active users for the game has already exceeded 1 million on consoles, and the expected launch of the PC version in October should open up the Asian gaming market, which is fairly PC-heavy. However, it will be interesting to see if Destiny 2‘s ramp up is affected by the baggage of its predecessor .

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