Amazon’s Stock Fell Last Week, What Does The Future Hold?

by Trefis Team
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Amazon’s stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) has fallen by 2.2% over the last five trading days. The company announced its results on February 2nd, 2021. For FY 2020 Amazon recorded revenues at $386 billion, up 37% and earnings per share at $42.61, up from $23.46 in the previous year due to better operational efficiency. The company also declared that Jeff Bezos will step down as CEO in Q3 2021 and Andy Jassy is set to take over.

Though the company beat consensus estimates in revenue and earnings, the news of Jeff Bezos stepping down resulted in the stock falling  2.2% in the previous week. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 grew by 2.5% over the last five trading days. Now, is Amazon’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 68% chance of a rise in Amazon’s stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on Amazon Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Day: AMZN -2.2%, vs. S&P500 2.5%; Underperformed market

(17% likelihood event)

  • Amazon stock declined 2.2% over a five day trading period ending 2/10/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.5%
  • A change of -2.2% or more over five trading days is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 218 times out of 1256 in the last five years

Ten Day: AMZN -0.6%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Underperformed market

(45% likelihood event)

  • Amazon stock declined 0.6% over the last ten trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.9%
  • A change of -0.6% or more over ten trading days is a 45% likelihood event, which has occurred 560 times out of 1240 in the last five years

 

21 Day: AMZN 3.8%, vs. S&P500 2.5%; Outperformed market

(24% likelihood event)

  • Amazon stock rose 3.8% the last 21 trading days (1 month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.5%
  • A change of 3.8% or more over 21 trading days is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 290 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While Amazon’s stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Amazon vs Etsy. Another example is Apple vs Microsoft.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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