What’s Next For AMD Stock After 20% Rise Last Month?

Advanced Micro Devices stock (NASDAQ: AMD) is up 20% in just one month (21 trading days), completely outperforming the S&P 500 which was up around 5%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, the stock has returned 5% and 12%, respectively, thus having outperformed the market on both occasions. AMD reported stellar Q3 ’21 earnings this week, with revenue jumping to $4.3 billion from $2.8 billion for the same period last year. With COGS and other operating expenses in control, operating income more than doubled from $449 million in Q3 ’20 to $948 million in Q3 ’21. This enabled the company to report an EPS growth of 2.3x, as EPS came in at $0.76, up from $0.33 in Q3 ’20. Additionally, analysts estimate AMD’s growth to continue, supported by strong expected laptop and gaming console sales over the holiday season.

Now, is AMD stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a decent 63% chance of a rise in AMD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AMD Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about AMD historical returns and comparison to peers, see Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: AMD 20%, vs. S&P500 4.7%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AMD stock increased 20% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.7%
• A change of 20% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 386 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 386 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 242 occasions
• This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMD 12%, vs. S&P500 4.3%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AMD stock increased 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.3%
• A change of 12% or more over ten trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 376 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 376 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 214 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMD 5.1%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Outperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next five days)

• AMD stock increased 5.1% over a five-day trading period ending 10/27/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.3%
• A change of 5.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 662 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 662 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 321 occasions
• This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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