Up 10% Last Month, Alaska Airlines Stock Set To Sustain Its Outperformance?

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ALK
Alaska Air

Alaska Air Group Inc. stock (NYSE: ALK) is up almost 10% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 which was up 6.1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last week and ten days too, the stock has returned 1.3% and 3.9%, performing better than the broader markets which dropped around 1% on both occasions. ALK’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $1.95 billion in Q3 ’21 to $2.83 billion in Q3 ’22, primarily driven by a rise in passenger segment revenues. However, with surging fuel costs, the company reported operating income of $62 million, down from $258 million for Q3 ’21. Due to this, the company’s net earnings dropped, and EPS came in lower at $0.32, compared to $1.55 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is Alaska Air stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 55% chance of a rise in ALK stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ALK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Return

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Twenty-One Day: ALK 9.6%, vs. S&P500 6.1%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • ALK stock gained 9.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.1%
  • A change of 9.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 404 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 404 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 221 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ALK 3.9%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Outperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • ALK stock gained 3.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.8%
  • A change of 3.9% or more over ten trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 740 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 740 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 405 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ALK 1.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Outperformed market

(45% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • ALK stock rose 1.3% over a five-day trading period ending 11/8/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 0.7% over this period.
  • A change of 1.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 45% likelihood event, which has occurred 1122 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1122 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 608 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 ALK Return 1% -13% -49%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -20% 71%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -24% 200%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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