Adobe’s Stock Fell After Earnings, What Is The Likelihood Of Rise?

by Trefis Team
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Adobe’s stock (NASDAQ: ADBE) declined by 4.7% in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index declined by 2.1% over the same period. Adobe’s stock fell after its results earlier in the week as investors were left disappointed with the recurring revenue number of $11.67 billion. Overall for the quarter, the company reported revenue of $3.94 billion, up 22% y-o-y while earnings were recorded at $2.54 compared to $1.99 in the same period of the previous year. Now, is ADBE stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 74% chance of a rise in ADBE stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Adobe’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: ADBE -5.3%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Underperformed market

(6% event probability)

  • Adobe’s stock declined 5.3% over a five day trading period ending 9/22/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 2.2%
  • A change of -5.3% or more over five trading days has a 6% event probability, which has occurred 141 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Ten Days: ADBE -5.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.9%; Underperformed market

(6% event probability)

  • Adobe’s stock declined 5.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 2.9%
  • A change of -5.6% or more over ten trading days has a 6% event probability, which has occurred 143 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: ADBE -4.7%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market

(10% event probability)

  • Adobe’s stock declined 4.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 2.1%
  • A change of -4.7% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 10% event probability, which has occurred 264 times out of 2515 in the last ten years

While Adobe stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a Better Bet Than ADBE Stock. Also, Adobe Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

 

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