What’s Happening With AbbVie Stock?

ABBV: AbbVie logo

AbbVie stock (NYSE: ABBV) reported its Q2 results last week, with revenue falling short and earnings above the street estimates. ABBV stock fell around 7% in a week, while it’s down 8% in a month. The company reported revenue of $14.6 billion (up 4.5% y-o-y) and EPS of $3.37 (up 11% y-o-y) in Q2, compared to the consensus estimates of $14.7 billion and $3.32, respectively. AbbVie’s hematologic oncology drugs’ sales were down 9%, weighing on the top-line growth.

This can be attributed to its blockbuster drug – Imbruvica – losing market share to new entrants, including AstraZeneca’s Calquence. Despite its mixed results, the company confirmed its full-year outlook for the adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $13.78 and $13.98. The company’s mixed results and a decline in the hematologic oncology portfolio didn’t sit well with the investors, evident by the stock price correction.

Now that ABBV stock has seen a fall of 8% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase for ABBV stock over the next month. ABBV stock has seen a fall of 8% or more in a month 212 times in the last ten years. Of those, 138 resulted in ABBV stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 138 out of 212, or about a 65% chance of a rise in ABBV stock over the next month. See our analysis of AbbVie Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving -7% or more over five days, the stock rose on 60% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -6% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 68% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving -8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 65% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of an increase in ABBV stock over the next five, ten, and twenty-one days.

AbbVie (ABBV) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: NVS highest at -0.5%; ABBV lowest at -6.7%
  • Ten-Day Return: NVS highest at 3.5%; ABBV lowest at -6.3%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: NVS highest at 1.3%; ABBV lowest at -8.4%

While ABBV stock looks like it can gain in the near term, it is helpful to see how AbbVie’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Xylem vs. Merck.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 ABBV Return -2% 4% 124%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -14% 84%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -13% 242%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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