The shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) have gained about 9% over the past month (about 21 trading days), trading at about $156 per share. This compares to the S&P 500 which has gained about 7% over the same period. The stock was also up by about 6% over the last week (five trading days). The recent rally comes as Apple’s Q4 FY’22 results came in ahead of expectations, in contrast with fellow tech titans Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, who all missed estimates, amid weaker demand and easing Covid-19 tailwinds. Over Q4, Apple’s revenues stood at $90.1 billion, up about 8% year-over-year, and EPS came in at $1.29, up about 3% versus last year. However, growth rates for Apple’s bread-and-butter iPhone businesses fell short of estimates as interest in entry level models was weak, although premium devices such as the iPhone Pro apparently saw a stronger uptake. Apple’s services business has also seen a meaningful slowdown, with year-over-year growth coming in at just 5%, compared to double-digit levels in previous quarters.
Now that Apple stock has seen gains of about 9% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly 64% chance of a rise in Apple stock over the next month. Out of 493 instances in the last ten years that Apple stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 9% or more, 314 of them resulted in Apple stock rising over the subsequent month (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 314 out of 493, or about 64% chance of a rise in Apple stock over the coming month, implying a positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Apple Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years data
- After moving 6% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 60% of the occasions.
- After moving 13% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 57% of the occasions
- After moving 9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 64% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that it is moderately likely that Apple stock will see gains in the near term.
|S&P 500 Return||9%||-18%||74%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||7%||-22%||211%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/30/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016