What The Upcoming iPhone 13 Means For Apple Stock

by Trefis Team
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Apple stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) is trading at near all-time highs of about $150 per share, driven by anticipation surrounding the launch of the new iPhones in September. So what will the new device mean for Apple?

The new device, likely called iPhone 13 or iPhone 12S, is expected to be an iterative update compared to the iPhone 12. Key upgrades are likely for the camera, display, and processors although the industrial design is likely to remain largely similar to last year’s models. While Apple typically sees iPhone sales drop during years of incremental updates (sales dropped in FY’16 and FY’19 when the 6S and 10S models were Apple’s flagship), things could be different for the new models. The global economy is rebounding strongly following the Covid-19 lockdowns, with vaccination rates also rising. This should bode well for high-end smartphone vendors such as Apple. Additionally, wireless carriers, who delayed 5G marketing campaigns through the pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes, are also likely to go on a marketing blitz to promote their 5G networks and this could translate into better carrier promotions on the new iPhones. Moreover, unlike last year, when the availability of the iPhone 12 was significantly constrained, Apple is looking to ensure a strong supply of this year’s flagships. Bloomberg reported that suppliers are preparing to build as many as 90 million new iPhones this year, a 20% bump over its initial production run for the iPhone 12.

Now, although the semiconductor shortage has proved a concern for the consumer electronics industry in recent months, we don’t see this holding back Apple’s iPhone 13 cycle. Apple is the most profitable company in the smartphone space by far, with its average pricing rising and margins getting thicker. For example, gross margins soared to about 43% in Q3 FY’21, up from about 38% in the year-earlier quarter. This means the company should be in a better position to pay a little more to secure supply, compared to smaller players, without really impacting its profits.

We value Apple stock at about $157 per share, which is slightly ahead of the current market price. See our analysis Apple (AAPL) Valuation: Is AAPL Stock Expensive Or Cheap?

[8/2/2021] How Will Chip Shortage Impact Apple?

During Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Q3 earnings call last week, CEO Tim Cook cautioned that sales of products including the iPhone and iPad could be impacted by the semiconductor shortage. While the automotive industry bore the brunt of the semiconductor supply crunch over the past few quarters, the shortage is now spilling over to the consumer electronics space. Although the shortages are unlikely to impact high-end proprietary processors that go into Apple devices, supply of lower value silicon, such as the chips that are used to drive displays and audio functions, could be impacted. While Apple stock has declined by about 2% following its guidance, we think the overall impact on the company is likely to be limited for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, Apple’s revenue growth rates have picked up considerably, with sales likely to rise by over 30% this fiscal year per our estimates, driven by solid demand for the iPhone 12 devices, Macs, digital services, and accessories such as AirPods. Some temporary headwinds from the chip shortage are likely to be masked by solid overall growth. Moreover, Apple is the most profitable company in the smartphone space by far, and its margins are only getting thicker. Gross margins soared to about 43% in Q3 FY’21, up from about 38% in the year-earlier quarter, driven by sales of higher-priced devices and lower costs. This means the company should be in a better position to pay more to secure supply, compared to smaller players, without really impacting its profits. See our analysts on Apple Revenues: How Does AAPL Make Money? for more details on Apple’s key revenue streams and how they are expected to trend.

[5/5/2021] What’s At Stake For Apple Stock As Epic Case Goes To Trial?

Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) highly lucrative services business faces its biggest legal challenge yet, as the Epic Games lawsuit against Apple and its AppStore went to trial on Monday. Epic alleges that Apple’s AppStore is an anti-competitive marketplace, that locks in customers and diminishes the earnings of mobile app developers. The game developer sued Apple back in August 2020 after its popular Fortnite game was removed from the AppStore shortly after Epic let players bypass Apple’s in-app purchase system, avoiding the 30% commission on sales. So what’s really at stake for Apple and its services business?

Apple has been increasingly counting on selling digital services to drive profitability and stabilize its revenues, which have been somewhat volatile in recent years. Services accounted for about 19% of Apple’s total revenues and about 31% of gross profits over its most recent quarter (Q2 FY’21). Apple has also launched a slew of new service offerings in recent years, ranging from fitness tutorials, paid podcasts, and streaming video. However, we believe that the AppStore and the commissions from third-party subscriptions, both key targets of the Epic lawsuit, still account for a bulk of its services earnings, since they primarily comprise commissions (typically 15% to 30% of the purchase value). We estimate that the two services revenue streams together accounted for about $23 billion of Apple’s roughly $54 billion in services sales last year. While we wouldn’t speculate on the possible outcome of the case, it’s clear that Apple’s earnings would see a meaningful impact if it were forced to reduce commissions considerably or allow app developers to bypass its store.

Our dashboard Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue estimates the revenue figures for AppStore, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Third-party Subscriptions, Licensing, Apple Care, and Apple Pay.

[8/17/2020] Epic Lawsuit Hits Apple’s Stock Where It Hurts

Last week, Epic Games sued Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) for antitrust violations, after its popular Fortnite game was removed from the AppStore shortly after Epic let players bypass Apple’s in-app purchase system, avoiding the 30% commission on sales. Although Apple has had spats with developers in the past, the Epic lawsuit is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Epic lawsuit comes at a time when tech giants, including Apple, have been facing increasing scrutiny from regulators regarding their market power. Secondly, Apple is more dependent on its Services business than ever before, with hardware growth slowing (profits from Services grew 5x as fast as hardware profits over the first three-quarters of FY’20), and Epic’s lawsuit targets Apple’s commissions, which we estimate are Apple’s single most profitable revenue stream.

Apple made roughly about $360 million in commissions from Fortnite over the last two years per Sensor Tower –  a relative drop in the bucket for Apple which pulled in $260 billion-plus in revenues last year. [1] However, if Epic sees a favorable judgment, and if Apple is forced to reduce its commissions or change the terms of its AppStore, this is very likely to set a precedent, causing other developers to demand similar terms.

So what could be the financial impact of Apple reducing commissions across the board? Apple takes a 30% cut on App sales and subscriptions (15% from the second year of subscriptions) and we estimate that total commission revenues stood at almost $20 billion in FY’19 (out of a total of about $46 billion in Services Revenue).  If Apple reduced commissions to say 20% from 30%, it would reduced total commissions by about $7 billion to roughly $13 billion. Although the revenue impact would be limited for Apple (under 3% of Apple’s Total Revenue) the impact on profits would be more pronounced given that commissions are likely to be almost entirely profit. We estimate that Apple’s Operating Income would be about 10% lower if commissions were reduced, considering Apple posted about $64 billion in Operating Income in FY’19.

Now commissions of 30% are actually pretty standard across the industry – Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google, which also faces a similar lawsuit from Epic, as well as Microsoft and Amazon, charge roughly the same fees on app sales on their respective market places. However, Apple has the most to lose from this given the sheer scale of its business. AppStore revenues are roughly twice as large as Google’s Playstore.

While automakers and consumer electronics players have been impacted by the semiconductor supply crunch, there are several companies that are benefiting from the situation. Our theme on Stocks That Benefit From The Semiconductor Shortage has more details.

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Notes:
  1. Apple made $360 million from ‘Fortnite, Business Insider, August 2020 []
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