Is Apple’s Stock Immune To Coronavirus?

by Trefis Team
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Global markets have been seeing big swings over the last several days, as cases of the novel Coronavirus accelerate outside China. While Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has also been volatile, trading at levels slightly below levels seen on January 31, when the WHO declared a global health emergency, it has fared better compared to the broader S&P 500. There could be multiple trends helping Apple. Firstly, unlike sectors such as airlines and restaurants, which could lose demand, Apple is only likely to see delayed demand. For instance, the cut in its Q2’20 guidance could result in a stronger quarter going forward. Moreover, much of the recent gains in Apple’s stock have come from the growth of its services business, which is likely to be largely immune to the outbreak. The decline in new cases in China is also likely to be helping Apple, which depends on the country for the bulk of its manufacturing. Below, we take a look at how Apple stock has been reacting to the COVID-19 outbreak and how this compares to the H1N1 pandemic of 2009.

View our interactive dashboard analysis Apple Stock Immune To COVID-19?

COVID-19: Apple stock has decreased by 3.2% since the end of January when the WHO declared a global health emergency

The stock was down by 1% since February 24 (around the time when the Center for Disease Control raised alarm about the broader worldwide spread and in US communities) and March 3.

Comparison With H1N1 Pandemic of 2009

Timeline of the H1N1 pandemic

  • 1st Detection (First confirmed case in U.S.) Mar 30, 2009
  • Spreading (WHO issues outbreak notice) Apr 24, 2009
  • Peak Spread (CDC says H1N1 may have peaked) Nov 30, 2009
  • Fading (CDC says cases declining steadily) Dec 19, 2009
  • + 3 Months Mar 19, 2010

How Apple performed over the H1N1 outbreak

  • Apple stock powered through the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outperforming the S&P and Amazon stock.
  • Apple stock gained about 58% between the time H1N1 spread, peaked and subsided, and gained another 13% three months post the end of the pandemic.
  • Amazon stock rose by close to 52% and 1.4% in the same period. In comparison, the S&P gained 29% and 4%.
  • It should be noted that the broader markets rallied over 2009, as the U.S. recovered from the 2008  economic crisis and this likely reduced the impact of the H1N1 pandemic on the markets.

For more details and charts on how Apple fared over the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, view our dashboard analysis Apple Stock Immune To COVID-19?

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