Should You Pick American Airlines Stock For Near-Term Gains?

+10.14%
Upside
15.07
Market
16.60
Trefis
AAL: American Airlines logo
AAL
American Airlines

The shares of American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) have lost 17% in value since early-April, largely due to skyrocketing inflation and the Fed’s counter measure of 50bps hike in the funds rate – triggering concerns of a slowdown in discretionary spending. As highlighted in our earlier article, Should You Increase Stakes In American Airlines Stock?, the company does not have fuel hedges to assist margins amid the high benchmark oil price environment despite strong passenger numbers assisting the top line. However, the Trefis machine learning engine, which analyzes historical stock price movements, AAL stock has a 65% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis American Airlines Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: AAL -5.9%, vs. S&P 500 1.3%; Underperformed market (15% event probability)

  • AAL stock declined 5.9% over a five-day trading period ending 6/6/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained fairly stable.
  • Returns of -5.9% or lower over a five-day period on 309 occasions out of 2130 (15%); Stock rose in the next five days in 154 of these 309 instances (50%).
Relevant Articles
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  2. Forecast Of The Day: American Airlines Passenger Yield
  3. Should You Increase Stakes In American Airlines Stock?
  4. Forecast Of The Day: American Airlines Available Seat Miles
  5. Should You Pick American Airlines Stock Ahead Of Earnings?
  6. Is This Airline Stock A Better Pick Over American Airlines?

Ten Days: AAL -3.2%, vs. S&P 500 5.4%; Underperformed market (35% event probability)

  • AAL stock declined 3.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which gained 5.4%.
  • Returns of -3.2% or lower over 10-day period on 747 occasions out of 2126 (35%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 378 of these 747 instances (51%).

Twenty-One Days: AAL -17%, vs. S&P 500 -4.3%; Underperformed market (6% event probability)

  • AAL stock lost 17% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 4.3%.
  • Returns of -17% or lower over 21-day period on 132 occasions out of 2115 (6%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 86 of these 132 instances (65%).

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jun 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 AAL Return -9% -9% -65%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -14% 84%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% -18% 223%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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