Forecast Of The Day: American Airlines Passenger Yield

+35.49%
Upside
12.25
Market
16.60
Trefis
AAL: American Airlines logo
AAL
American Airlines

What?

American Airlines (NYSE:AAL) Passenger Yield – which refers to the average revenue received by the carrier per mile per revenue paying passenger in the U.S. – declined from $0.174 in 2019 to $0.158 in 2020 although it rose to about $0.161 in 2021. Trefis expects the metric to recover to $0.166 by 2023.

Why?

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While the metric took a hit in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19, the reopening of the economy and easing of travel restrictions should help to bolster demand for air travel, helping yields.

So What?

However, we think that the recovery is fully priced into AAL stock. We value AAL at about $20 per share, 25% below the current market price.

See Our Complete Analysis For American Airlines

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 AAL Return 9% 11% -57%
 S&P 500 Return -6% -10% 91%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -6% -13% 243%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/26/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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