American Airlines (NYSE:AAL) Passenger Yield – which refers to the average revenue received by the carrier per mile per revenue paying passenger in the U.S. – declined from $0.174 in 2019 to $0.158 in 2020 although it rose to about $0.161 in 2021. Trefis expects the metric to recover to $0.166 by 2023.
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While the metric took a hit in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19, the reopening of the economy and easing of travel restrictions should help to bolster demand for air travel, helping yields.
However, we think that the recovery is fully priced into AAL stock. We value AAL at about $20 per share, 25% below the current market price.
|S&P 500 Return||-6%||-10%||91%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-6%||-13%||243%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/26/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016