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Low Cigarette Volumes And A Strong Dollar Result In A Disappointing Quarter For Philip Morris
Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) declared its first quarter earnings on April 20, wherein it reported an EPS of $0.98, flat versus the same quarter a year ago, but which missed on the consensus estimate by 5 cents. Even the revenue of $6.06 billion, which was a fraction of a percentage point down from the corresponding prior year figure, missed the analysts’ expectations. However, once the foreign currency impact is discounted, the revenues were up by 1.7%. The total cigarette shipment volume was down by a massive 11.5%, with substantial drops seen across all of its major regions, which pulled down the growth of the company. The company has again guided its full year forecast upwards, driven by a favorable discrete tax item, to a range between $4.84 and $4.99. Optimism regarding the company’s reduced risk products (RRPs) had pushed the stock price of the company higher this year by over 25%; however, the disappointing earnings posted by PM sent the price down by almost 4%. See Our Complete Analysis For Philip Morris International Weak First Quarter Does Not Foreshadow A Weak Year While a weak first quarter had been anticipated by the company, the decline in cigarette and heated tobacco unit volumes was larger than expected. For the full year, the company expects the volume to fall by 3% to 4%. After a strong performance in the fourth quarter of FY 2016, the company had set the FY 2017 EPS guidance to be in the range of $4.70 to $4.85. The company had since then revised this guidance upwards to $4.80 to $4.95. This has been further raised on account of a favorable tax item, as stated earlier. The foreign currency translations are expected to now impact the earnings of Philip Morris by $0.08, as opposed to an estimation of $0.18 earlier. The assumptions behind these numbers remain intact, namely the currency-neutral net revenue growth of 6%. This is expected to be supported by favorable pricing, as well as increased heated tobacco unit and iQOS device sales. The company is also targeting achieving break-even for iQOS this year. The growth is expected to be skewed towards the second half of the year, reflecting the increased RRP capacity, and improving returns on its investment as the year wears on. A strong pricing variance in the first quarter helped to drive the currency-neutral growth of the company, a trend which is expected to continue through the year. The company announced or implemented price increases in a number of markets in the quarter, notably Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Germany, Indonesia, Poland, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK. iQOS Performance Continues To Be Impressive The product carried on with its strong sequential growth, reflected in the weekly offtake shares for Marlboro HeatSticks. The brand closed out the quarter with a weekly offtake share of 9.6% nationally, 11.6% in Tokyo, and 14.9% in Sendai. The strong performance in Sendai in particular demonstrates the growing potential of the heat-not-burn technology products in Japan. iQOS has now been launched in 24 markets globally, following the city launches in Colombia and Lithuania during the first quarter, and in Poland and Serbia earlier this month. By the end of the year, the company is targeting the product to be present in 30 to 35 markets globally, subject to capacity. More importantly, the company estimates that approximately 1.8 million adult consumers have already quit smoking cigarettes and switched to iQOS. The company started the year with 15 billion units of installed annual HeatSticks capacity, and expects over 32 billion units in total capacity to be available for commercialization this year. The company anticipates an installed annual capacity of approximately 50 billion units by year end. Philip Morris is also implementing its plans to reach an installed annual capacity of 100 billion units by the end of 2018, which would translate to 75 billion units in total capacity available for commercialization. In support of these decisions, the company recently announced its decision to convert its cigarette factory in Greece to a heated tobacco unit production facility. Consequently, the company is also increasing its planned capital expenditure in 2017 to $1.6 billion, up from the $1.5 billion estimated earlier. Have more questions on Philip Morris? See the links below: Strong Demand For Smokeless Tobacco In Japan iQOS- A Product Of Innovation Or Necessity For Philip Morris? iQOS’ Impressive Growth Story Continues In The Fourth Quarter For Philip Morris How Is Philip Morris Working Towards A Smoke-Free Future? Notes:
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Here’s What To Expect In Chipotle’s Q1 2017 Earnings
Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE: CMG) is set to report its Q1 2017 earnings on April 25 th 2017. After an extremely difficult 2016, the company is beginning to show signs of improvement as its efforts towards better food safety and promotions to attract customers have started showing results. In the last one month the company’s stock price registered a more than 15% increase and we believe this is in anticipation of better than expected results.  Below is a summary of consensus estimates for Chipotle for Q1 2017: Source: Yahoo Finance This is in line with our estimates of higher revenues and EPS as the company recovers from the E-coli scandal. These include the roll out of smarter pick up times technology to reduce wait times for customers. (Read Can Shorter Wait Times Benefit An Ailing Chipotle Mexican Grill? ). It appears that its continuous measures to regain customer confidence are paying off and the company regained its top spot as the best U.S. Mexican Chain, according to Market Force’s survey. (Read Are Chipotle’s Food Safety Efforts Finally Paying Off? ). However, the proposed tax on goods imported from Mexico and heavy spends on promotion and food safety can put pressure on Chipotle’s margins impacting its EPS negatively. The overall weakness in the restaurant industry continues and according to insights from Black Box intelligence,   which are based on weekly sales data from over 145 restaurant brands, the first quarter of 2017 has not been very encouraging for the restaurant industry. Comparable sales and traffic have declined year on year in both February and March, with January being the only exception, reporting flat comp growth year on year. Chipotle’s Q1 2017 results are likely to set the trend for this year and give a strong indication on whether the company is on a recovery path. Most analysts expect the company to report a significant increase in revenues and EPS and the market survey confirms that the company is on the verge of a turnaround. This quarter could mark the beginning of new positive innings for Chipotle. Below is a summary of Chipotle’s key operating metrics for the last four quarters:   For further details on the company  See Our Complete Analysis For Chipotle Mexican Grill   View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap | U.S. Mid & Small Cap | European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
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What To Watch For In McDonald’s Q1 2017 Earnings?
In the last three months, McDonald’s  (NYSE:MCD) stock price has increased by more than 10% as the market sentiment turned positive towards the company. The burger giant is slated to declare its Q1 2017 earnings on April 25 th  and the consensus expectation is a decline in the top line compared to last year. However, the consensus EPS estimate is around 8% higher than the actual EPS of $1.23 reported by the company for Q1 2016. The EPS growth is expected due to the share repurchase program of the company. Source: Yahoo Finance The consensus estimate is in line with our revenue estimates and we expect this decline to continue for the next few years (until 2020). While McDonald’s is taking several steps to drive revenues especially moving towards healthier menu items, the overall weakness in the restaurant industry is likely to impact its revenue growth negatively. According to insights from Black Box intelligence, which are based on weekly sales data from over 145 restaurant brands, the first quarter of 2017 has not been very encouraging for the restaurant industry. Comparable sales and traffic have declined year on year in both February and March, with January being the only exception, reporting flat comp growth year on year. Weakest restaurant segments in Q1 2017 are family dining and fast casual and this industry trend is likely to impact McDonald’s revenue growth. McDonald’s is taking several steps to stay ahead of the competition and grow revenue in the crowded quick service restaurant space. Some of the key steps include: Rolling out its mobile-order and pay initiative in all 14,000 U.S. restaurants in the fourth quarter of this year. Introducing fresh patties in its quarter pounder burgers by the middle of 2018. (Read A Closer Look At McDonald’s Next Big Change ) Tracking customer data to provide more personalized service. (Read Here’s Why McDonald’s Is Looking To Track Customer Data ) However, the benefits of these initiatives should be visible starting the end of 2017 and more in the next few years. For Q1 2017 we do not expect the company to spring any surprises in terms of revenues and EPS. Below is a summary of McDonald’s key performance metrics for the past four quarters: For more details on the company refer to our complete analysis of McDonald’s. See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
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Emerging Markets Lead The Way For Unilever In Q1; Reviving Hope For The Food Business
Unilever (NYSE:UL) released its Q1’17 earnings on April 20 th, and went on to surprise the market with growth in both organic sales and net sales, which has been a rare event over the past 2 years. Organic sales (Underlying Sales Growth) grew by 2.9% led by higher pricing, especially in the refreshments business, which saw an underlying price growth (UPG) of 5%. This was again led by premium ice cream brands like Talenti, GROM, and Magnum. The company doesn’t give out its detailed financials on a quarterly basis, but it has guided for an 80 bps rise in its operating margin for the full year 2017, which is because it has started reaping the benefits from its ‘Connected 4 Growth’ initiative started last year, that includes simplification of supply chain, innovation, and cost saving initiatives such as zero-based budgeting. The food division, excluding the spreads business, finally showed the symptoms of growth which actually sent out a positive message for the investors worried about this struggling segment. Another positive being that geographically, the growth was led by emerging markets like Africa & Asia from where Unilever derives around 55% of its sales. See our complete analysis for Unilever here Food Division Will Get Leaner, And New Acquisitions Can Boost Its Growth! Including the spreads business, the food division showed a dismal performance with flat organic sales and negative volume growth. However, excluding spreads, the organic sales growth returned to a positive territory along with better volumes. Also, on the same day the company has announced that it will buy Sir Kensington’s for $140 million. Sir Kensington’s produces natural non-GMO and eggless mayonnaise, and this is a clear indication that the company is turning away from the artificially processed food products after it had a bitter experience with spreads and margarine. This provides a better growth opportunity, as well, because the natural food market is expected to grow a lot faster than the artificially packaged food market. Technavio estimates the healthy food market to grow at 6% CAGR till 2020. Apart from this, it is a positive sign that the company may look forward to re-invest the cash it will receive after the divestiture of the spreads business, to buy such high growth companies that can add to its valuation. Emerging Markets Are Likely To Lead The Way The improvement in macro conditions in emerging nations played a vital role in Unilever’s net sales growth. The improvement in the currency situation of countries like India and Brazil provided a 2.4% tailwind to Unilever’s net sales which rose by 6.1%. Going forward, Unilever projects that the economic slowdown in the developing countries might have bottomed out. This is another factor which can have a major impact on the future performance of the company as the revenues from emerging nations make up the majority of its top line. However, the performance in developed markets like North America and Europe continued to disappoint because of weak market conditions. Global Large Cap | U.S. Mid & Small Cap | European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research  
JetBlue Looking At A Weak Start To 2017
JetBlue Corporation  (NYSE:JBLU) is all set to report earnings for the first quarter of FY 2017 on April 25. The company posted positive figures in the previous quarter, beating the consensus estimates for earnings and revenues comfortably. The company posted a positive earnings surprise of almost 2%, with revenues coming in around $1,641 million, up about 3% year-over-year. Revenues were driven primarily due to the airline’s strategy to restrict its capacity growth in order to bring back its unit revenue in the positive range. While revenues could continue to remain positive this quarter on the back of this strategy, earnings are expected to take a hit on rising costs. Analysts estimate earnings to come in around $0.25 per share, down about 12% year-over-year. Probable Highlights : As mentioned previously, the bottom line is expected to be hurt by rising expenses. The recently inked labor deals and maintenance costs are bound to drag on earnings this quarter. The company expects the consolidated operating cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, to grow in the range of 3%-5%. However, for the full year, the airline plans to restrict the unit cost growth to 1%-3% in order to maintain its margins. JetBlue has forecast fuel consumption in the quarter to be around 194 million gallons. Additionally, fuel costs are estimated to rise by about 16 cents in the quarter, up from $1.56 per gallon recorded in the last quarter, as oil prices continue their accent to normalcy. This is bound to weigh on earnings further. Operating revenue is anticipated to decline by about 4.8%. The airline plans to spend $305-$365 million in the first quarter and $1.2-$1.4 billion in the fiscal year on re-fleeting and maintenance of its airplanes. The negatives aside, the company has highlighted plans on increasing its capacity by a large margin over the coming year. To accommodate for the consequent surge in demand, the low-cost carrier intends on expanding its premium service, Mint, significantly. In this respect, the company hopes to operate more than 70 Mint flights by December 31, 2017. This could definitely attract more passengers, and should help boost the top line as early as this quarter. Further, the company is more than committed to reducing its debt significantly over the year, giving much needed respite to investors. JetBlue expects to repay debt of approximately $50 million and $195 million in the March quarter and the full year 2017, respectively. This move is bound to raise optimism regarding the stock which has suffered since the last earnings call. View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research  
Key Takeaways From E-Trade's Earnings
E*Trade Financial ‘s (NASDAQ:ETFC) stock price rose nearly 4% during after-hours trading after the brokerage announced its Q1 earnings. After an impressive 2016, the company continued to perform well with quarterly revenue of $553 million, implying growth of 17% over the same period last year. In line with our expectations, interest earning assets continued to be the primary growth driver, aided by the Fed’s two interest rate hikes in the last 4 months. Additionally, the price cut in equity trading commissions did not impact E-trade’s overall trading revenue as the announcement came into effect only after the first week of March, and any adverse impact was more than offset by the increase in trading volumes from the acquisition of OptionsHouse in September 2016. Operating expenses grew nearly 12% in comparison to the prior year, due to higher compensation and infrastructure spending to cater to the expanding customer base, and we expect them to remain around same level for the year. Despite that, the company’s pre-tax margin remained at 41%, same as Q1 2016 and 100 basis points above the previous quarter. However, the costs incurred due to the OptionsHouse acquisition and decline in trading commission will likely lead to a dip in operating margins through the year. Interest Earning Revenues Grew Due to Fed’s Actions Interest earning assets account for nearly 57% of E-Trade’s revenue. Additionally, the company has the highest yield on these assets (at 2.7%) among its peers, which has contributed to impressive growth in revenues. These assets saw nearly 19% growth along with a 10 bp increase in yield, resulting in over 11% growth in the segment’s revenues for the year. We expect another 10 basis points of improvement in the yield and similar growth in assets for the entire year, due to the likelihood of another hike. Trading Revenue Grew Despite Cut In Commissions   Transaction-based revenues account for 23% of E-Trade’s overall revenue. The quarter saw around 18% growth in trading commissions despite the company’s decision to slash its commissions from $9.99 to $6.95 per trade and $4.95 for frequent traders. Trading volumes grew by over 25%, primarily due to the acquisition of OptionsHouse. Moreover, the company’s decision to slash its commissions came at the end of February, thereby affecting only a third of the trading volume for the quarter. E-Trade expects a decline in its operating margin of up to 200 basis points for the full year due to the price cut, but expects the loss to be offset by the growth in interest earning revenues. See our complete analysis for Charles Schwab . View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
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Earnings Review: Visa Posts Another Strong Quarter
Visa (NYSE: V) reported earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2017 on Thursday, April 20. The U.S.-based payments company reported a 23.5% increase in revenue net of client incentives compared to the same quarter in fiscal year 2016. However, increased tax expenditure related largely to the settlement of special items related to the reorganization of Visa Europe meant that net income and earnings per share (EPS) declined by almost 75% year over year. Excluding the impact of these one-time special items, net income came in at $ 2.1 billion and EPS at $ 0.86, implying an increase of 27% year over year. Visa is in an extremely strong position operationally. It has huge scale: its credit and debit cards are accepted universally and on all types of payment devices; it has a large number of co-branding partners and its cards in circulation and volume of transactions processed far exceed that of any rival company. Moreover, the company consistently posts an operating margin that most public companies can only dream of. This kind of market position allows Visa a lot of leeway to give up short term profits for the consolidation of market position in the medium to long term. In the second quarter, Visa grew its revenue net incentives by 23.5%. The company managed to achieve these numbers by growing client incentives 30.7% and operating expenses 40% year over year. Most of the increase in operating expenses came from increased spending on marketing and promotions, and a large increase in general and administrative expenses. Going forward, Visa is focusing on the integration of Visa Europe into its overall business. Additionally, it is trying to expand its payment services to newer platforms. This means that it expects its revenue to grow between 16%-18% for the full year, with an operating margin in the mid-60s. In the second quarter, the company’s operating margin dropped from 67% in the previous year to around 62.7%, while its revenue grew by 23.5%. Lower revenue growth means that we expect the company to scale back on client incentives, while the higher operating margin guidance means that Visa is likely to spend less on marketing and promotions, as well as that the increase in general and administrative expenses was likely a one-time occurrence. Have more questions about Visa? See the links below: How Much Did Visa’s Revenue & Gross Profit Grow In The Last Five Years? How Much Can Visa’s Revenue Grow In The Next Five Years? What Is Visa’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? How Has Visa’s Revenue Composition Changed In The Last Five Years? Notes: Global Large Cap |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap |  European Large & Mid Cap | More Trefis Research
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Lockheed Martin To Continue Its Positive Streak
Lockheed Martin  (NYSE: LMT) is all set to report earnings for the first quarter of FY 2017 on April 25. In the previous quarter, the company managed to beat both earnings and revenue estimates, by a significant margin. In fact, the company beat earnings estimates in all four quarters last year, posting an average earnings surprise of about 12%. The top line in Q4 increased by about 19% year-over-year, driven primarily by increased F-35 sales and the Sikorsky helicopters business. In general, management appears optimistic about FY 2017; confident that the momentum driving the top line will continue spurring on. 2017 net sales are expected to grow by about 4.6% to 7.1%, compared to its previous forecast of an increase of 7%. For the first quarter, analysts estimate earnings to come in at $2.73 a share, reflecting a ~6% jump year-over-year, with revenues coming in around $11.26 billion, up ~4% year-over-year. Probable Highlights : The F-35 program is expected to boost the top line yet again this quarter. Ever since President Trump’s Twitter rant attacking mounting costs at the program, the company has worked tirelessly to ensure a lower price tag per aircraft. Lockheed managed to reduce the cost of the fighter jet by a significant 6-8% since then. This led to the signing of a mammoth $8.5 billion contract from the Department of Defense (DoD) for the production of 90 F-35 fighters. Additionally, during the first quarter, the defense contractor also received a $1.1 billion contract from the U.S. Navy for providing recurring logistics support and sustainment services for their recently acquired F-35 Lightning II aircraft. Further, the company was also awarded a $750 million contract by the Defense Logistics Agency for providing flight line spare parts. Other important deals that could boost revenues in the first quarter include two modification contracts worth $416.9 million received by United Launch Services, LLC (ULS). In a previous announcement, Lockheed management had projected a 40% hike in its 2017 delivery numbers in comparison to the last year. If this forecast holds true, we could see the top line jump significantly over the year, beginning as early as this quarter. In terms of orders, the company had earlier announced that it anticipates additional GPS III satellite orders during the first half of the year. Additionally, it also hopes to finally conclude the Hellfire missile order that was put on hold last year. The earnings call could help provide some more information on these deals. The positive aside, we can see a dip in the top line at the Missile and Fire Control segment in the first quarter. This is primarily due to unfavorable timing of deliveries. That said, a surge in deliveries can be expected in the second quarter of 2017, bringing the segment back on track.     View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
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U.S. Bancorp's Q1 Results Were Solid Despite Seasonal And Mortgage-Related Headwinds
The first quarter of a year usually sees overall loan balances for the industry nudge lower as people use bonuses and tax refunds to reduce their loan burdens. And loan growth in Q1 2017 was also hurt in particular by the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates last December, and again in March. Taking this into account, along with the fact that the U.S. mortgage industry is still witnessing weak activity, U.S. Bancorp’s  (NYSE:USB) results for Q1 2017 look rather good. After all, the bank has focused its growth efforts largely on the mortgage and payment industries since the economic downturn, and despite the headwinds on both fronts, it managed to grow pre-tax income by 4% year-on-year. There were a few factors that worked in U.S. Bancorp’s favor, though. Firstly, the rate hikes have helped increase net interest margins across the industry, and elevated demand for wealth management services also boosted the bank’s wealth management fees. Another factor that contributed was the overall improvement in economic conditions in the U.S., which helped U.S. Bancorp maintain loan provisions at roughly the same level over the last five quarters.
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Texas Instruments To Retain Its Growth Momentum In Q1'17: Earnings Preview
Leading analog semiconductor maker,  Texas Instruments  ( NYSE:TXN), will be reporting its Q1 2017 earnings on April 25th. The company closed 2016 on a strong note driven by strong demand in the automotive and industrial segments. Additionally, gross margin touched an all time high of 62.5% in Q4 2016 on the back of an increasing proportion of analog production on 300mm fabrication facilities. We expect the growth momentum to sustain in 2017, as well. TI could witness an increased demand for its products if the infrastructure spending in the U.S. were to increase under the Trump administration, which has been quite vocal about its seriousness to boost infrastructure spending. A fiscal stimulus by the government to boost infrastructure is likely to drive growth in the industrial, automotive, and telecommunications markets. This, in turn, should result in an increased capex in these sectors. Given that TI derives revenues from each of these segments, an uptick in infrastructure spending will be beneficial for the company. Additionally, the possibility of a further increase in margins cannot be ruled out, as TI shifts an increasing proportion of analog production to the 300mm production facilities. See our complete analysis for Texas Instruments Margins Could Improve Further TI’s effective manufacturing strategy has helped it increase its gross margin from 49.7% in 2012 to 61.6% in 2016. At 62.5%, the company’s gross margins were at its highest levels in Q4’16. TI can continue to benefit from an efficient manufacturing strategy for the next couple of years depending on the pace at which it shifts its production to 300mm analog capacity, as manufacturing analog ICs in 300mm fabs (i.e., fabrication facilities) is 40% cheaper for the company as compared to production on 200mm wafers. To increase its 300mm production, TI is likely to ramp up its production from its RFAB and DMOS6 facilities, which have 300mm production equipment and were largely under-utilized until 2016. Thus, there is still room for margins to increase in the next couple of years. See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology


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