Dish Network (DISH) Last Update 3/23/23
Related: CMCSA T VZ
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Dish Network
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Satellite TV
60.4%
$29.47
Wireless
39.6%
$19.36
Net Debt
71.8% $35.06
TOTAL
100%
$48.84
$13.77
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$6.75
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Dish Network Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Satellite TV constitutes 60% of the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network's stock.
  2. Wireless constitute 40% of the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

  1. Dish's Q4 2022 earnings

Dish Network posted a mixed set of Q4 2022 results. Revenue fell by about 9% year-over-year to $4.04 billion, as the company's pay-TV subscriber base decreased by approximately 268,000. However, earnings were stronger than expected, standing at $1.47 per share. The company's retail wireless subscriber base also decreased by roughly 24,000 over the quarter.

  1. Dish preps for Boost Infinite launch

Dish will launch its new nationwide wireless service, Boost Infinite around Q1 2023. This means that Dish should finally be able to monetize its 5G network, which it has been building out for some time now using its vast wireless spectrum holdings. The company expects to reach 70% of the U.S. population with 5G by 2023.

  1. Wireless acquisitions

Dish Network completed the acquisition of Boost Mobile in July 2020, while the acquisition of Ting Mobile was completed in August 2020. Dish also acquired Republic Wireless in 2021. The company had close to 8 million wireless subscribers as of the end of 2022.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Dish Network's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Dish Network:

Satellite TV

  • Fee per Pay TV Subscriber: We estimate this figure will increase from about $106 in 2022 to about $130 by the end of our forecast period. However, there could be an upside of around 5% to our price estimate if this fee rose to more than $140 instead.
  • Dish Network Gross Profit Margin: We estimate that Dish Network's Pay TV gross margins will go down from almost 40% in 2022 to around 36% by the end of our forecast period. There could be an upside of more than 5% to our price estimate if Dish can get back to 42% gross margin levels seen in the late 2000s by continuing to focus on a quality subscriber base and increasing its prices.

For additional details, select a driver above or a division from the interactive Trefis split for Dish Network at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Dish Network is one of the largest pay-TV providers in the U.S. The pay-TV market includes cable providers such as Comcast, satellite providers such as DirecTV, and telecom providers such as AT&T and Verizon that offer fiber optic TV services. Dish is the second-largest satellite TV provider in the U.S. after DirecTV. Dish makes money by charging digital TV subscription fees to customers, selling digital TV boxes, selling premium services like HD and DVR, and by charging advertisers to advertise on some of the channels it carries.

Dish is also an emerging wireless player. Dish invested over $20 billion to acquire wireless spectrum licenses, including AWS-4, AWS-3, and licenses in the 600 Mhz bands. The company also entered the retail wireless market in 2020, via its acquisition of Boost Mobile, which operates as a mobile virtual network operator. Dish is also building out its own 5G network, as it needs to meet the FCC guidelines of reaching 70% of the U.S. population with its spectrum.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Per our estimates, most of Dish's value still comes from its satellite TV service. This is due to the division's high average revenue per subscriber, which stood at $105 in 2022. We estimate that the average revenue per subscriber will grow to over $130 by the end of our forecast period. Margins for the division are also quite high, at almost 40% in 2022.

KEY TRENDS

Dish's wireless plans

Dish has made significant investments in the spectrum over the past few years and is now one of the largest wireless spectrum holders in the United States. The company has spent a combined sum of over $20 billion in acquiring its spectrum and is building out a 5G network, with plans to invest over $10 billion in the next few years. While Dish's 5G network will also serve retail users, the enterprise space will likely be a key market. Dish is focusing on building a cloud-native network that could allow it to provide virtually partitioned slices of its network designed to the exacting needs of industrial users.

Dish's valuable spectrum assets

Dish’s spectrum assets could provide investors with downside protection even if Dish’s wireless buildout and monetization don’t go as well as planned. The company holds around 150 MHz of value sub-6 GHz frequency, compared to Verizon and AT&T, which hold around 290 MHz each, per UBS. Although regulations prevent existing wireless carriers from buying Dish’s spectrum assets before 2026, the spectrum is nevertheless increasingly valuable given the growing demand for bandwidth following Covid-19, the higher spectrum intensity of 5G versus earlier technologies, and also due to the limited availability of airwaves.

Threat from streaming platforms

Dish Network and pay-TV service providers, in general, face a threat from emerging online video platforms such as Netflix and Hulu. Although these platforms mostly provide content that is not running live on TV, they are now slowly penetrating the pay-TV provider's core turf. Netflix's successful entry into original programming is an example.