VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Silicon Wafer Fab Equipment constitutes 64% of the Trefis price estimate for Applied Materials's stock.
2. Applied Global Services constitute 33% of the Trefis price estimate for Applied Materials's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Q1 FY'24 Earnings

Applied Materials posted a better-than-expected set of Q1 FY'24 results. While revenue came in almost flat year-over-year at $6.71 billion, earnings stood at $2.13 per share. Although sales in the U.S. declined, growth in China has surged.

Note: The company's FY'23 ended October 29, 2023. Q1 FY'24 ended on January 28, 2024.

Generative AI boom drives Applied stock

Generative artificial intelligence has captured the imagination of the tech world this year following the launch of the ChatGPT chatbot. This trend could help drive long-term demand for high-end graphics chips that work on computationally intensive AI algorithms. This could benefit Applied as well, given that its customers could look to invest in more high-end chipmaking equipment.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, flat panel liquid crystal displays (LCDs), solar PV cells and modules, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials is also one of the world's largest semiconductor fabrication equipment suppliers based on revenue.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Silicon wafer fab equipment

• Silicon Systems Revenue: We forecast that Applied's Silicon Systems Revenue will grow to about $30 billion by the end of our review period. Applied's confidence in continuing to gain market share in wafer fabrication equipment, is supported by its three major customers in the segment. These three customers accounted for approximately 50% of the net sales of the company in the past few years. A decline in business from any one of these customers could be a great setback for Applied and could lead to a major fall in the company's SSG market share and overall revenues. For instance, if revenues remain flat at levels of about $18 billion by the end of our review period, our price estimate for the company could decline by almost 15%.
  

  SOURCES OF VALUE

  
  Applied operates in three reportable segments: Silicon Wafer Fab Equipment Group, Applied Global Services, and Display. The company stopped treating Solar PV as a reportable segment in October 2016.
  

  Silicon Wafer Fab Equipment Group

  The Silicon Wafer Fab Equipment segment continues to be the most valuable segment for Applied, generating around 73% of revenues in 2022. Applied is the market leader in manufacturing equipment for silicon-based semiconductor products, and we expect it to retain its leadership due to its superior product portfolio and continued investment in research and development.
  

  Applied Global Services

  Applied's offerings in services, particularly those related to yield management and improvements in the 200mm manufacturing equipment business, earned it significant growth. With revenue of over $5.5 billion in 2022, it comprises 22% of its overall revenues. We expect the demand for Applied's services in fab management and automation to remain strong during our forecast period, as the semiconductor manufacturing process gets more complex and better automation and management services start affecting the yield of semiconductor manufacturers.
  

  KEY TRENDS

  Technology Transitions To Drive Higher Levels of Investment In The Future.

  Applied believes that the semiconductor industry's growth is fueled by evolving trends in mobility, connectivity, video, and wearable devices. This is accelerating innovations in mobile processors, solid-state storage, and interactive displays. Areas such as A.I. and Big Data are also expected to be big drivers of growth over the next decade and semiconductors are likely to be the foundation of these technologies. Applied's customers are focused on winning share through these inflection points and this will result in a period of sustained investment by semiconductor customers. The company's key customers are aggressively pursuing 7nm and 10 nm process technologies.
  

  Changing Trend In Semiconductor Spending

  
  While smartphones have been the biggest driver of semiconductor spending in recent years, emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), virtual reality, augmented reality, 5G networks, big data, artificial intelligence, and self-driving cars are projected to drive growth going forward. Applied says that these areas have the potential to significantly increase semiconductor spending and drive advances in silicon technology in the future. The company also believes that capital equipment spending has become less cyclical and more normalized over time, because of increasing demand in these areas.
  

  Growing TV demand and mobile investments will drive long-term growth in the display segment

  
  The average TV sizes are growing faster than historic rates, and Applied is seeing a surge in unit sales fueled by consumer spending on new 4K and OLED models. Demand for bigger, higher resolution, low-power screens for mobile applications is also a key factor driving display growth. According to the company, large-format TVs are expected to grow at a rate of 50%, compared to the single-digit growth of TVs overall. The supply of TV and mobile remain tight, and customers continue to invest in new capacity and advanced technology, to gain a leadership position in the market. This presents a significant market opportunity for Applied in OLED display equipment. Applied is building a strong product portfolio to support its customers in their transition to OLED displays over the next few years. The uptick in display orders for Applied suggests that this segment can be a major revenue growth driver for the company going forward.