- Core DRAM constitutes 67% of the Trefis price estimate for Micron Technology's stock.
- NAND flash constitutes 29% of the Trefis price estimate for Micron Technology's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Latest Earnings: Q3 2021
Micron Technology reported net sales of $7.42 billion in Q3 2021, up significantly from $5.44 billion in Q3 2020, as sales picked up post the pandemic slump, and selling prices rose due to rising demand.
Further, the company managed to control operating expenses, and this led to operating income jumping more than 2x from $888 million to $1.8 billion over this period. This meant that net income rose from $805 million to $1.74 billion for the period, driving EPS up to $1.55 from $0.72.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Micron's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Micron:
- Core DRAM Revenues: The price of DRAM saw a solid increase over the last three years, driven by demand from the cloud, enterprise, mobile, and graphics markets, and stronger sales to higher-value markets. The price increase, coupled with higher bit sales helped Micron boost revenue from $7 billion in FY'16 to about $21 billion in FY'18. However, DRAM revenue dropped to $14.51 billion in FY '20, as the market is still coming out of a state of oversupply and recovering from the pandemic. We expect revenues to rise gradually to about $19 billion in FY'21 and $24.5 billion by FY'22, as the market shifts out completely from a phase of oversupply. We expect revenues to rise to over $45 billion by 2027. Even a slight variation from our estimate can lead to a significant upside/ downside in our price estimate for Micron, as DRAM accounts for about two-thirds of the company's revenue.
Micron Technology, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of semiconductor devices, primarily dynamic random access memory (DRAM) for PCs and mobile devices, NAND Flash and NOR Flash memory. In addition, Micron also develops other memory technologies, packaging solutions and semiconductor systems for use in computing, consumer networking and embedded and mobile products.
- DRAM memory is the memory inside a PC/laptop computer. All computing devices require memory for the purpose of execution of programs. Micron has several different technologies of DRAM on the market viz. SDRAM, DDR, DDR2, DDR3 for use in PC market. Mobile DRAM(mDRAM) products are specialty DRAM memory devices designed for applications that demand minimal power consumption such as smartphones, digital cameras, and other handheld electronic devices.
- NAND flash is the memory which is present in a typical USB drive or a mobile flash card. NAND is ideal for mass-storage devices due to its fast erase and write times, high density, and low cost per bit relative to other solid-state memory.
- NOR flash is the memory embedded with the device. The base memory on a mobile phone or a digital camera is typically NOR flash. NOR is ideal for storing program code in wireless and embedded applications. The software/firmware on a mobile phone or digital camera is usually stored on NOR flash memory.
SOURCES OF VALUE
We estimate NAND Flash to account for approximately 39% of Micron's value. NAND Flash is an important source of value for Micron due to the following reasons:
- SSDs are a key growth driver for the NAND industry: Historically they have turned out to be expensive for computing usages due to their high cost per GB of storage. However, in the long term, the mainstream PC SSD will have the most influence on the NAND market. IT managers have found that they can greatly reduce their IT spend while increasing throughput by replacing enterprise HDDs with SSDs.
- 3D NAND is a fast growing technology:
In March 2015, Micron and its joint-venture partner Intel announced the availability of their 3D NAND technology, a highest density flash technology used in laptops, data centers, tablets, and mobile phones. The company is on track to have more than 75% of our NAND bits on 3D.
While the industry has largely been transitioning from 2D NAND to 3D NAND with the 64-layer technology, Micron introduced its 96-layer NAND into production in 2019 while ramping up production over 2020, in a move that should provide it with significant cost reductions, as is evident from its growing operating margins. While rival Samsung has already started mass production of 96 layer 3D NAND, it will be crucial for Micron to move down the cost curve at a time of increasing supply, as it would give the company an advantage over other vendors.
Core DRAM currently constitutes two-thirds of Microns' revenue and a similar proportion of its valuation, as per our estimate. We believe that DRAM will continue to be a key source of value for Micron due to the following reasons:
- Highly integrated DRAM manufacturing process: Micron has integrated DRAM manufacturing process and owns the wafer manufacturing facilities which helps it lower its cost base. In addition, it has supply agreements with Inotera which enabled it to increase the production of DRAM products significantly in the past. DRAM supply from Inotera increased significantly in 2011 due to Inotera's transition of its manufacturing from trench DRAM process technology to Micron's stack DRAM technology. Micron recently signed a new agreement with Inotera to purchase 100% of its production, as opposed to 50% as per the initial agreement.
- Consolidating DRAM Market: While the global DRAM market had numerous players a few years back, it is now essentially an oligopoly. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron are the top three DRAM players, accounting for more than 90% of the market.
The DRAM and NAND Flash business is cyclical in nature with each cycle comprising of four phases:
- Increased demand, high profitability:
The market is in undersupply with strong pricing and hence, high profitability. Profits are spent on capacity addition, with increase in supply after a period of 8-12 months.
- Oversupply and losses:
Market is marked by oversupply and falling ASPs. The focus is on driving cost efficiencies.
- Continued oversupply, losses run deeper:
Demand is pushed a little higher due to price elasticity. ASPs continue to fall and approach cash cost levels. Capex is delayed and fabrication units are run at lower capacity.
- Supply correction, return to profitability:
Reduced supply leads to correction and demand sufficiency. ASPs see a correction or possible rebound while costs continue to decline. Capex spending starts again.
As of Q1 FY'2021, both the NAND and DRAM markets were recovering from the initial hit to sales from the pandemic.