VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Macau Gaming & Hotels (Macau Gaming, Macau Hotels) constitute 44% of the Trefis price estimate for Las Vegas Sands's stock.
2. Singapore Gaming & Hotel (Singapore Gaming, Singapore Hotel) constitutes 39% of the Trefis price estimate for Las Vegas Sands's stock.
3. Food, Convention, Retail and Others constitute 17% of the Trefis price estimate for Las Vegas Sands's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Las Vegas Sand's Q4 2023 Earnings

LVS posted a mixed set of Q4 2023 results. While revenue rose 160% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, beating estimates, earnings came in at $0.57 per share, missing estimates. Growth was driven by rising tourist inflows into Macau and a strong performance by the Marina Bay Sands property.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of LVS that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for LVS:

Macau VIP And Mass-Market Gaming

• LVS Macau Rolling Chip Volume: LVS Macau VIP Rolling Chip Volume stood at $69.5 billion in 2017. This metric increased further in 2018 to $80.44 billion due to solid growth across its Macau properties. Further, LVS' Macau properties grew by 17% in GGR, outperforming the industry by nearly 300 basis points. With the new gaming law in place, the VIP Rolling Chip Volume has recently been muted. Despite a further contraction in the segment, the impact on LVS stock is likely less as the company focuses on non-rolling chip volume.
• LVS Macau Non-Rolling Chip Drop: LVS Macau mass-market gaming chip drop stood at $21.1 billion in 2017. This increased to $24.5 billion in 2019, driven by broad-based growth across all its Macau casinos. Trefis forecasts non-rolling chip drop to increase to over $50 billion by the end of our forecast period despite the slump in 2020 and 2021. If LVS Macau's mass-market gaming chip drop grows at a higher pace, driven by the growth in visitors from Mainland China, and reaches about $60 billion by the end of the forecast period, there could be a 10% upside potential to our estimate for LVS's stock. In a bearish scenario, assuming that the Macau Casino industry starts witnessing slow growth and LVS's Macau mass-market gaming chip drop reaches only $40 billion, there could be a downside of approximately 9% to our estimate for LVS's stock.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for LVS at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is a leading developer, owner, and operator of destination casino resorts. It presently operates in the U.S., Singapore, and Macau. It operates in Macau and Singapore through its two subsidiaries, Sands China Limited (SCL) and Marina Bay Sands Pte. Limited (MBS), respectively.

Macau

The Sands Macao has approximately 220 table games and 870 slot machines. It also includes a 289-suite hotel tower, several restaurants, a spacious Plaza Club, a theater, and other services and amenities. The Venetian Macao includes approximately 374,000 square feet of gaming space and has approximately 710 table games and 1,540 slot machines. The resort has a 39-floor hotel tower with over 2,900 suites, approximately one million square feet of retail and dining offerings, a convention center and meeting room complex of approximately 1.2 million square feet, and a 15,000-seat arena.

In August 2008, LVS opened the Four Seasons Macao. The Four Seasons Macao includes the Four Seasons Hotel Macao, with 360 rooms and suites. The resort has 340 table games and 1,100 slot machines, 19 Paiza mansions, conference and banquet facilities, and approximately 242,000 square feet of retail space.

In April and September 2012, the company opened phases I and IIA, respectively, of Sands Cotai Central, which is part of our Cotai Strip development. Additionally, LVS opened phase IIB of Sands Cotai Central on January 28, 2013. Sands Cotai Central currently offers about a 6,200-room integrated resort complex featuring rooms and suites under the internationally recognized Sheraton, Conrad, and Holiday Inn brands. The property includes approximately 367,000 square feet of gaming space with approximately 430 table games and 1,410 slot machines, approximately 520,000 square feet of retail, entertainment, and dining space, over 369,000 square feet of meeting facilities, and a multipurpose theater. The company is rebranding several of its integrated casinos - The Londoner Macau and St. Regis Tower Suites Macau.

In September 2016, LVS opened another resort in the Cotai strip, The Parisian. The resort has about 2,500 hotel rooms and operates with more than 340 tables and 1,100 slot machines. The Parisian is internally interconnected with all other LVS resorts in Macao, which gives it a competitive advantage. It was the second most visited casino in Macau in 2016 after the Venetian in just around four months of operations. It also contains nongambling attractions such as paintings, fountain shows, a meeting room complex, and a 1,200-seat theater. This is in line with LVS's strategy of diversifying revenues from Macau to decrease risks.

Las Vegas Sands renovated Sands Cotai Central with a London theme and rebranded it as The Londoner Macau, mainly due to below-par results at the property. This overhaul was completed in 2021.

Singapore

LVS opened Marina Bay Sands in April 2010. The integrated resort has 2,600 rooms, 160,000 square feet of gaming space, approximately 625 table games, 2,360 slot machines, and 1.3 million square feet of convention and meeting space.

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe that Macau gaming operations are the primary source of value for Las Vegas Sands because:

Significantly Higher Volume Than Las Vegas Casinos

Although the Macau business has faced headwinds due to Covid-19, the division remains LVS's most valuable business unit. There is a very high demand for gambling in Macau, the only place in China where gambling remains legal. A lot of tourists from nearby countries visit Macau for gambling. The casino business is primarily divided into Macau categories: VIP gaming and mass-market gaming. Las Vegas Sands has established a critical mass in the region, helping the casino giant attract more and more VIP players.

Other factors that drive Las Vegas Sands' value are its Singapore and U.S. operations.

Premium brand image

LVS is recognized worldwide as a premium brand resort. It has a sophisticated style and offers exquisite luxuries to its customers. It mainly caters to high-end gaming customers. LVS has a Paiza Club that offers high-end services and amenities to VIP customers, such as luxurious suites, spa facilities, and private gaming rooms. It also has a Canyon Ranch Spa Club operated by Canyon Ranch. Marina Bay Sands has been built at an approximate cost of $5.5 billion. The resort offers exquisite luxuries to its customers. It has seven celebrity restaurants and a 15-meter-long rooftop swimming pool.

KEY TRENDS

Increasing share of Asia casino revenue

LVS is focusing its efforts on Asia for future growth after it completed the sale of its Vegas properties for over $6 billion in 2022. The company will focus on Macau - the world's largest gambling market before Covid-19 - and also on Singapore, with its Marina Bay Sands property.

Macau surpassed the Las Vegas Strip as the world's biggest gambling hub in 2006 after the government allowed the entry of overseas casino operators. Since then, the region has witnessed unprecedented growth driven by an expanding Chinese economy, a burgeoning middle class, and an increasing population of high-net-worth individuals.

Key infrastructural initiatives underway

The Macau government is reinforcing a series of initiatives to drive visitor growth in the region. The gaming industry is a key contributor to Macau's GDP. The government is investing in new transportation links to ease travel for Chinese visitors. It should be noted that most of the tourists visiting Macau are from Mainland China.

The Guangzhou-Zhuhai high-speed railway is expected to improve travel time from Guangzhou to Macau to 40 minutes, down from the 2+ hours taken by bus. The Macau Light Rapid Transit will link ferry terminals and key locations. It will have 12 stops on the Macau peninsula, 11 stops on Cotai and Taipa, and fully integrate different Macau regions.

Also, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which opened in October 2018, will connect Hong Kong to Macau, thereby reducing car travel time from 4 hours to 40 minutes and driving greater Mass market visitations. The Macau International Airport has also seen capacity upgrades.