eBay (EBAY) Last Update 11/10/21
% of Stock Price
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Net Debt
5.3% $4.43
Trefis Price
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis

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Potential upside & downside to trefis price

eBay Company


  1. Transaction Revenues constitute 91% of the Trefis price estimate for eBay's stock.


Latest Earnings

For Q3 2021 Revenue was $2.5 billion, up 11% y-o-y and 10% on a FX-Neutral basis. Gross Merchandise Volume was $19.5 billion, down 10% y-o-y and 12% on a FX-Neutral basis. GAAP and Non-GAAP operating margin were 26.5% and 31.7%, respectively. Annual active buyers declined by 5%, for a total of 154 million globally. Annual active sellers were flat, for a total of 19 million globally.

Impact of Coronavirus

IT software and Services industries are suffering from a fall in demand for software and web services as consumers are focusing solely on essentials and not discretionary products. That said, the industry has seen companies with a portfolio of software as well as services aimed at remote collaboration benefit due to the growing number of people globally. Many companies are also operating with employees working remotely from their own home. Online marketplaces gained more traction due lockdown and restrictions in various regions leading to eBay gaining buyers.

Sale of Classifieds Business

On July 21, 2020, eBay announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to transfer its Classifieds business to Adevinta for a total consideration valued at approximately $9.2 billion, based on the closing trading price of Adevinta shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange on July 17, 2020. eBay will receive $2.5 billion of cash and 540 million shares of Adevinta, representing 44% ownership of the pro forma company, and an approximate 33.3% voting stake. The transaction is expected to close by Q1 2021, subject to approval of Adevinta stockholders and other customary conditions.

eBay Marketplaces

  • eBay Transaction Revenues: We currently forecast the transaction revenues to grow at a CAGR of above 5% through the end of our forecast period, driven by increasing number of users and a gradually improving take rate (note: take rate is eBay's commission on items sold).

  • eBay EBITDA Margin: We currently forecast eBay EBITDA margin to grow to around 40% by the end of our forecast period.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for eBay at the top of the page.


eBay is known for operating the online marketplace eBay.com. The company's marketplace is where third-party buyers and sellers can transact in a variety of products including clothing, electronics, media, collectibles, automobiles and many other types of merchandise.

The payment services arm PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015. eBay also divested its Enterprise business for a deal valued at $900 million in 2015. Accordingly we have excluded both these businesses in our valuation model.


Growth In Global E-Commerce Volume

The global e-commerce market is growing at healthy rates owing to growing popularity of online shopping. According to eMarketer, the global retail e-commerce market is expected to grew from $1.3 trillion in 2014 to reach $4 by 2020. In the event, eBay is able to overcome its challenges, it could benefit from this high demand in the market. However, owing to increased competition from Amazon, Alibaba and traditional retail giants, we expect eBay to under-perform the broader e-commerce market in the coming years.

Focus on Increasing Conversion Rate

Conversion rate is a key focus area for eBay, as it seeks to increase the success of sellers in converting listed items to sold items. eBay has implemented a number of features to increase the conversion rate on marketplaces and continues to improve customer experience on its marketplaces. eBay has also complemented these features with search engine optimization (SEO) changes and broadening its marketing channels to include social platforms.