VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Transaction Revenues constitute 95% of the Trefis price estimate for eBay's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings

For FY 2023 Revenue was $10.1 billion, down 3% y-o-y. Gross Merchandise Volume was $73.2 billion, down 1% on a reported basis. GAAP and Non-GAAP operating margin were 16% and 26.7% respectively. Annual active buyers were 132 million globally.

In Q4 2023, the company posted net revenues of $2.56 billion - up 2% y-o-y. Further, the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased 2% y-o-y to $18.6 billion.

Impact of Coronavirus

IT software and Services industries suffered from a fall in demand for software and web services in 2020, as consumers were solely focused on essentials and not discretionary products. That said, companies with a portfolio of software, as well as services aimed at remote collaboration, benefited due to the growing number of people globally. Further, Online marketplaces gained more traction due lockdowns and restrictions in various regions leading to eBay gaining buyers. Notably, the elevated user traffic during 2020 and 2021 was the main reason behind revenue growth. However, with the re-opening of offline retail stores and the lifting of COVID-19-related restrictions, the top line suffered in 2022.

eBay Marketplaces

• eBay Transaction Revenues: We currently forecast the transaction revenues to grow at a CAGR of around 1.5-2% through the end of our forecast period, driven by an increasing number of users and a gradually improving take rate (note: take rate is eBay's commission on items sold).


• eBay EBITDA Margin: We currently forecast eBay EBITDA margin to be around 33-34% by the end of our forecast period.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for eBay at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

eBay is known for operating the online marketplace eBay.com. The company's marketplace is where third-party buyers and sellers can transact in a variety of products including clothing, electronics, media, collectibles, automobiles, and many other types of merchandise.

The payment services arm PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015. eBay also divested its Enterprise business for a deal valued at $900 million in 2015. Accordingly, we have excluded both of these businesses from our valuation model.

KEY TRENDS

Growth In Global E-Commerce Volume

The global e-commerce market is growing at healthy rates owing to the growing popularity of online shopping. According to Morgan Stanley, the global retail e-commerce market is expected to cross $5.4 by 2026. In the event, eBay is able to overcome its challenges, it could benefit from this high demand in the market. However, owing to increased competition from Amazon, Alibaba, and traditional retail giants, we expect eBay to underperform the broader e-commerce market in the coming years.

Focus on Increasing Conversion Rate

Conversion rate is a key focus area for eBay, as it seeks to increase the success of sellers in converting listed items to sold items. eBay has implemented several features to increase the conversion rate on marketplaces and continues to improve customer experience on its marketplaces. eBay has also complemented these features with search engine optimization (SEO) changes and broadening its marketing channels to include social platforms.