VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. American Eagle constitutes 55% of the Trefis price estimate for American Eagle Outfitters's stock.
2. Aerie constitutes 38% of the Trefis price estimate for American Eagle Outfitters's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

1. AEO Tops Estimates in Q3

The apparel retailer's revenue declined 3% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $1.24 billion, but still, beat analysts' estimates by $40 million. The company credited the Aerie brand's 11% rise in revenue, offsetting reciprocal declines at the American Eagle core brand, for the strong performance. Gross margins contracted to 38.7% from 44.3% in the prior year quarter as the company worked through bloated inventory levels. The markdowns helped bring inventory levels to within 8% of prior year levels, down from an over 36% y-o-y increase marked in Q2. Its net income dropped 47% to $81 million, or $0.42 per share, which also cleared the consensus forecast by $0.21.

Note: AEO's FY'21 ended on January 29, 2022. Q3 FY'22 refers to the quarter that ended on October 29, 2022.

2. Q4 Guidance

The company expects inventory clearing to support margins at the higher end of the previous guidance in the range of 32% to 33% on the fourth quarter. Additionally, the company remains on track to deliver $100 million in cost savings in the fourth quarter. Revenue is expected to be down in the mid-single digits with comparable sales across brands consistent with the third quarter.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

American Eagle Outfitters is a leading specialty apparel retailer that operates under the American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Aerie brands. The retailer designs, markets, and sells its own brand of high-quality, on-trend clothing, accessories, and personal care products at affordable prices, while targeting 15-25-year-old customers. Through its Aerie brand, the company offers a collection of intimates and personal care products for girls. Aerie emphasizes comfort rather than glamor when it comes to women's lingerie.

Most of American Eagle's retail presence is confined to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. In addition to this, it operates web-based stores for its different brands, through which it ships its merchandise to 81 countries across the world.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Aerie revenue continues to grow at a strong pace

American Eagle's lingerie and activewear brand, Aerie, has gone from strength to strength, driving sales growth for the company. It's opening more stores, which gives it a chance to gain on Victoria's Secret. While Victoria's Secret remains the industry leader with $6.8 billion (in 2021) in annual sales (compared to $1.3 billion of Aerie's revenue), at its current rate of decline and Aerie's accelerating growth, the two retailers could cross trajectories sooner rather than later. In addition, the demand for Aerie's products has also contributed to AEO's sales, margins, and profitability in recent quarters. Also, smooth progress on Real Power and Real Growth value-creation plan aided results.

Internet & Catalog Orders' revenue growth is faster than American Eagle's mainline stores

With the rise of internet shopping, the Internet & catalog revenues as a share of the total revenues for American Eagle have been on the rise, accounting for 48% of the company's overall revenues in FY 2021. The US apparel industry is gradually shifting towards omnichannel retailing, which refers to providing a seamless shopping experience across stores and the online channel. This is becoming an inevitable move for US apparel retailers, including American Eagle, which is working hard to develop its omnichannel platform and has shown significant progress so far. As is the case with other apparel retailers, AEO is gradually shrinking its store count, and focusing more on the high-margin e-commerce channel. This lends credence to its decision to develop its omnichannel presence by investing in digital marketing and improving its website and mobile app.

KEY TRENDS

Weak brand loyalty for American Eagle

The U.S. teen apparel market is currently highly promotional, where each retailer is trying to outsmart the other one with a broader and deeper set of products. As a result, U.S. buyers have shown low brand loyalty as they have been readily shifting to brands that provide relevant fashion at affordable prices. This trend has helped the growth of fast-fashion companies such as Gap Inc, Urban Outfitters, Zara, and H&M. On the other hand, companies such as American Eagle Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Aeropostale have been at the receiving end of this trend.

Greater focus on fashion offerings

While American Eagle's core products have struggled, its limited fashion range has found good acceptance among customers. As a result, the company is looking to strengthen this product category with more innovation in distinct finishes, fabrics, and washes. The company is looking to shift its product portfolio from basic to fashion gradually and has already seen some success. American Eagle is planning to simplify its design system to respond to changing customer tastes quickly and effectively. It is removing layers within its designing teams, reorganizing the structure to implement direct accountability, and enhancing its speed sourcing capabilities. One such development on this front is the retailer's fast-track fashion capsules, whose designing to in-store receiving process takes just 60 days. By effectively leveraging these factors, the company will be able to increase the proportion of fashion products in its portfolio.

Growth of young brand Aerie

American Eagle Outfitters sees huge potential in its relatively new brand, Aerie. The company is looking to capitalize on the lack of competition in the young women's intimates specialty format. About 15% of the total female population in the U.S. is between the ages of 15 and 24. The overall lingerie market in the U.S. stands well over $12 billion and is currently dominated by only a few established brands. The encouraging trend is that U.S. buyers have continued to spend on intimate products even during the sluggish economic environment. With the right push, we believe that Aerie can follow in the footsteps of Victoria's Secret. The brand can fend off the fierce competition in the intimate market as its products are affordable and more about usability than glamour.

International Expansion.

The apparel market in the U.S. is highly saturated and competitive, with a large number of established brands. Moreover, sluggish economic growth has been a big worry for the entire industry. Last year, in particular, apparel retailers struggled to achieve positive growth as cautious consumer spending and changes in spending patterns have weighed on sales. Given the situation in the U.S., exploring opportunities in international markets is warranted. It will not only open new revenue channels for the company but will also help diversify the business risk geographically. With slightly better macroeconomic conditions and lesser competition, international markets might provide American Eagle with the opportunity to operate more full-priced sales.

Development on omnichannel platform

With e-commerce not turning into a big business for many retailers despite continued robust growth, the need for omnichannel retailing has emerged. The entire apparel industry is gradually shifting towards this concept, which appears to be the future of retailing. Over the past couple of years, American Eagle has taken several steps toward the development of its omnichannel platform, and all of them have shown good promise so far. Its "buy online and ship from the store" pilot program has helped it attract those customers, who could have shied away from the retailer if the inventory pool wasn't integrated across all the channels. The initial rollout was slow, but the company soon went aggressive in its deployment.

Also, American Eagle has improved its delivery time significantly, and it now delivers products in two days or less to more than 90% of its customers. In addition, American Eagle has several other projects planned that are intended to optimize the shopping experience across online and mobile channels. It is in the process of adding new features to its website, including a 360-degree product view and an on-body product display. The company is relaunching an updated version of its mobile app that will now run faster and have a better interface.

All these efforts, along with the anticipated growth in online apparel sales, are likely to help American Eagle improve its store productivity.