Hyatt Hotels (H) Last Update 9/10/21
Related: WYNN LVS MGM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Hyatt Hotels
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Net Debt
15.2% $15.94
TOTAL
100%
$104.92
$88.98
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$82.96
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Hyatt Hotels Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Third-Party Owned Hotels constitute 89% of the Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels's stock.
  2. Hyatt Owned & Leased Hotel constitutes 11% of the Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Coronavirus Pandemic and Latest Results

In Q2, Hyatt Hotels observed 165% (y-o-y) top line expansion with a 47.6% system wide occupancy rate and $152 of ADR. The company expects to grow its net rooms by 5% in 2021.

As a part of the asset-light strategy, Hyatt has been converting its owned & leased hotels to the managed & franchise category to limit risk and focus on expansion. Notably, the company reported 6.5% of net room growth during the first quarter.

Per the divestment plan, Hyatt is targeting $500 million of proceeds until March 2022. Notably, the Management & Franchise (M&F) segment is projected to generate around three-quarters of Hyatt’s earnings by 2025.

The M&F segment earns fees on long-term management or franchise agreements with third-party property owners. Thus, low occupancy rates due to the pandemic poses less of a downside risk to the company’s long-term valuation.

As fears surrounding the new strains of coronavirus weighs on travel demand, hotel occupancy rates are expected to remain subdued until a major chunk of the population gets vaccinated.

After observing decade-low occupancy rates, Hyatt Hotels reported a 60% revenue contraction and $611 million of operating cash outflow for the full year 2020.

Given the company’s cash preservation measures including dividend suspension and capex curtailment, Trefis believes that Hyatt stock should retain its value despite the ongoing recessionary environment.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Hyatt Hotels value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Hyatt Hotels:

Hyatt Hotels

  • Average Daily Rates for Owned & Leased Hotels: Since 2011, ADR rose at an average annual rate of 5% to $230 in 2018. Going forward, it appears that the uptrend will continue due to Hyatt’s brand strength and ability to manage the hotel operations efficiently. In case the U.S. economy recovers faster than anticipated, we believe there could be a potential upside of 10% to the Trefis price estimate. This is assuming that Average Daily Rates double by the end of the Trefis forecast period. However, increased competition and higher hotel vacancy rates would act as a deterrent.
  • Hyatt Hotels Management And Franchise Revenues: Hyatt Hotels management and franchise revenues have increased at an average annual rate of 5% in the past five years. There could be an upside of over 20% to the Trefis price estimate if the management and franchise revenues continue to grow at the existing pace beyond 2022. However, this segment also poses a significant downside risk as the company plans to add nearly 80,000 rooms to its portfolio by 2022 (majority in M&F business).

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Hyatt Hotels at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Hyatt Hotels is a global hospitality company that manages, franchises, owns and develops a Hyatt portfolio of hotels, resorts, and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world. Hyatt Hotel’s worldwide portfolio consisted of 974 properties (235,272 rooms and units) as of Dec 31, 2020.

Hyatt’s full-service hotels and resorts operate under five established brands, Park Hyatt, Andaz, Hyatt, Grand Hyatt, and Hyatt Regency. Besides these, the company has two select service brands, Hyatt Place and Hyatt House. In 2013, the company added the Hyatt Ziva and Hyatt Zilara, all-inclusive resort brands to its portfolio. Additionally, Hyatt Hotels managed, franchised, and owned properties are spread across 52 countries around the world.

Hyatt Hotels derives nearly 42% of its revenue from its owned and leased hotels. Each brand represents a different category of hotels, and each brand has a different set of competitors. For instance, Park Hyatt falls under the luxury segment and competes with prominent names in luxury hotels such as Four Seasons and Ritz Carlton. Similarly, Grand Hyatt falls under the upper scale segment and competes with other brands such as Shangri-La, Mandarin Oriental, and InterContinental.

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe that the management of third party owned hotels is the primary source of value for Hyatt because:

Significantly Higher Margins As Compared To Owned Hotels

The profitability of managed and franchised hotels increases significantly if we ignore reimbursement costs. Moreover, for the third party owned hotels, the capital expenditures are borne by the property owner. On the contrary, Hyatt’s owned-properties business is capital intensive due to the high costs involved in developing new properties and maintaining the existing ones.

Hyatt Hotels has a wide presence on the globe. It operates in 52 countries and 20 of the 25 most populous urban centers around the world. These properties also provide a platform to expand in other markets and geographies. The model of managing and franchising works well for the majority of the hotel players, and they focus on expanding the same. Thus the third party owned hotels will continue to drive the growth for the company in the foreseeable future.

KEY TRENDS

Hotel RevPAR Is Linked To The Economic Growth In The U.S.

Hotel operations are usually linked with the macro-economic environment and tourism in the region. However, to better understand the causal relationship, we ran a regression analysis on the data from 2007 to 2014 with hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) as the dependent variable and the U.S. personal disposable income growth and international visitors growth as independent variables. We arrived at R-square of 0.82 for these variables, which, being on the higher side, indicates a relatively high level of correlation. To strengthen our argument, we also computed the F-significance, which defines the significance of independent variables to the response variable. In this case, the F-significance is 0.03, which also indicates a very strong relationship between these variables. Hence, we know that, historically, both U.S. personal disposable income growth and international visitors’ growth are both highly correlated with hotel RevPAR growth.

Social Media Is A Big Deal For Brands

The rapid expansion of social media has significantly enhanced the relationship between the hospitality industry and its guests. The reputation, service quality, the staff, etc. are determined through various social media platforms, including online travel forums and customer-led ranking sites such as TripAdvisor.

According to a report by a leading hotel chain, in the U.S., in just one day, brands are mentioned 3.3 billion times in 2.4 million online conversations. The report also mentioned that over 33% of the people surveyed consider comments on TripAdvisor to be of great importance in their selection of a luxury hotel. This is one of the reasons why the hotel sector is investing heavily in new technologies and building an online social media strategy. InterContinental’s 2014 Trends Report states that the rise of technology-led personalization helps shape and tailor guest’s experience.

Rise In International Travel

Given the recovery in global economies and sophisticated financial markets of emerging economies will drive international visitation. The U.S., in particular, will benefit from the Discover America campaign, which will drive the average guest spend as well as the occupancy levels of the hotels. There is leisure demand from other countries such as China that will stimulate demand for hospitality globally. The globalization of travel will prove to be a massive force for the hospitality industry. And Hyatt Hotels will benefit from its diverse brands and properties spread across the globe.