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Is The Maintenance And Professional Services Segment 50%, 60%, Or 70% Of VMware's Top Line?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/6/20
  • tags: VMW MSFT CSCO HPE IBM SAP ORCL CRM
    • As per Trefis estimations  VMware’s  (NYSE: VMW) Maintenance and Professional services business is expected to contribute $5.8 billion to VMware’s 2020 revenues, making up 57.5% of VMware’s $10.1 billion in expected revenues for 2020 (ended January 2020). The Maintenance and Professional services segment contribution is nearly 1.3x more than from Software License revenue. The Maintenance and Professional services segment will provide $745.8 million, that is 35.6% of $2.1 billion in total revenue the company is expected to add between 2017 to 2020. This Maintenance and Professional services revenue growth has been key to VMware’s 176% price appreciation since the start of FY 2017, further helped by better margins. We discuss VMware’s valuation analysis in full, separately. Below we discuss VMware’s business model, followed by sections that review past performance and 2020 expectations for VMware’s revenue drivers and competitive comparisons of its revenue with Microsoft and Cisco. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~  VMware’s Revenues: How Does VMware Make Money?  ~ for more details.   VMware’s Business Model What Need Does It Serve? VMware makes money from the sale of software and services for data center management, hybrid cloud computing, remote access and desktop virtualization. Has 2 Operating Segments Software License: Segment revenue is derived from the sale of licenses and subscriptions for the company’s products. Maintenance and Professional Services: Segment revenue is derived from software maintenance and support, professional services, and an allocated portion of subscription revenue. What Are The Alternatives? VMware competes with Cisco, Microsoft, and Nutanix among others. For how its revenue compares to its peers please visit our interactive dashboard – VMware ‘s Revenue .   Revenue growth expected in 2020 is primarily from growth in the Software License segment. (In the image and numbers below:  2017 data includes the 1 month gap for year change that was provided.) Total Revenue has grown from $8 billion in 2017 to $9 billion in 2019 driven primarily by the Software License segment. Trefis estimates further growth of about 12.2% and Revenue to reach $10.1 billion in 2020 (ended January 2020). Software License Division revenue has grown from $2.9 billion in 2017 to $3.8 billion in 2019. Revenue is expected to grow further to $4.3 billion in 2020 (ended January 2020), the growth is likely to be driven by the company’s entry in the security market as well as its move toward cloud-based offerings. Maintenance and Professional Services Division revenue has grown from $5 billion in 2017 to $5.2 billion in 2019. Revenue is expected to grow further to $5.8 billion in 2020 (ended January 2020), the growth is likely to be driven by increasing adoption of the company’s product offerings.  
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    What Are The Factors Behind Unilever's Expected Lack Of Revenue Growth Between 2018 and 2020?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/6/20
  • tags: UL CL PG
    • Unilever’s (NYSE: UL) total revenue has grown from $58.35 billion in 2016 to $60.41 billion in 2018, on the back of strong growth in personal care revenue, which grew from $22.33 billion to $24.44 billion over the same period. However, adverse foreign currency fluctuations and a lack of growth in the foods and refreshments segment is expected to weigh on total revenue, which is expected to remain roughly stagnant, coming in at around $60.49 billion in 2020. Home care revenue is expected to continue seeing slow growth, going from $12.01 billion in 2018 to $12.2 billion in 2020. Takeaway: Unilever’s Personal Care division, is expected to contribute $24.44 billion to total revenue in 2019, making up almost 41% of Unilever’s $59.75 billion revenue estimate. The Foods and Refreshments division comes close behind and is expected to bring in $23.25 billion in 2019, to make up 39% of the total revenue estimate. The Personal Care business will provide $2.6 billion, over 121% of the $2.14 billion growth in Unilever’s revenue between 2016 and 2020. This revenue growth, combined with a drop in shares outstanding, has helped drive Unilever’s share price by more than 40% since December 2016. In our interactive dashboard  Unilever Revenue: How Does Unilever Make Money?, we discuss Unilever’s business model followed by sections that review past performance and 2020 expectations for Unilever’s revenue, alongside competitive comparisons with Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble. A look at Unilever’s segments and their contribution to total revenue (A) Personal Care Revenue to grow by around $500 million over the next 2 years, to make up 41% of the total revenue estimate in 2020 Unilever’s personal care division is the company’s largest, and has grown from $22.33 billion in 2016 to $24.44 billion in 2018. This division is comprised of household brands such as Axe, Dove, Lux, Sunsilk, Lifebuoy, and Vaseline. Unilever has increased the focus on its personal care division over the last 4 years, and this has helped drive a $1 billion per year growth in this segment over the past 2 years. However, currency headwinds and slowing emerging market demand could weigh on revenue, which could struggle to cross $25 billion by 2020. (B) Foods & Refreshments revenue to drop $600 million over the next 2 years, to make up 39% of total revenue in 2020 The foods & refreshments segment includes the foods, ice cream, and beverages categories, and comprises household names such as Knorr, Magnum, Lipton, Brooke Bond, and Ben & Jerry’s. Unilever sold off its spreads business to KKR for about $8 billion in 2018, and Unilever has since reduced the focus on this segment. We expect revenue from this segment to drop to around $23.37 billion by 2020. (C) Home Care revenue to add around $200 million over the next 2 years, to make up the remaining 20% of 2020’s revenue estimate The home care segment comprises of leading brands such as Surf, Comfort, Domestos, Pureit, and Blueair. Revenue from this segment has grown from $11.08 billion in 2016 to $12.01 billion in 2018. We expect this metric to further grow to $12.2 billion by 2020.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    How Will Tesla's Soaring Q4 Deliveries Reflect On Its Bottom Line?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/6/20
  • tags: TSLA GM F
    • Tesla  (NASDAQ: TSLA) posted record deliveries of 112k vehicles in Q4’19, marking a sequential increase of about 15k units, beating Wall Street estimates. The Model 3 saw sales rise by about 13k sequentially to 92.5k units while premium vehicles – the Model S and X – saw deliveries rise by 2k units to 19.5k units. This puts the company’s 2019 deliveries at ~367k, meeting its promise of delivering at least 360k cars for the year. We expect Tesla to post another quarter of profitability, driven by soaring revenues and better cost management. Below we take a look at some of the trends that likely drove deliveries and how it could impact Tesla’s Q4 earnings, which are likely to be published by the end of this month. View our interactive dashboard analysis on  A Look At Some Of The Trends That Drove Tesla’s Q4 Deliveries Model 3 Deliveries grow 16% sequentially while Model S&X sales grow 12% Model 3 deliveries saw a 16% sequential improvement, with deliveries standing at 92.5k units. The increase is likely driven by increasing demand prior to the expiry of the Federal Tax credit for Tesla cars, which went to zero at the beginning of 2020. Model S & X deliveries stood at 19.4k units, marking a 12% sequential increase. While the increase is likely to be due to the expiry of the Federal tax credit as of January 1, 2020, deliveries also likely benefited from a lower base price and the introduction of an upgraded drivetrain and suspension setup on these vehicles. We expect Tesla’s Automotive revenues to grow to about $6.2 billion this quarter. We expect average revenue per vehicle to decline marginally from $55.2k to $55k driven by a slightly higher mix of Model 3s and lower starting prices. Tesla’s Total Revenues For Q4 Could Stand At $7.1 Billion We expect Tesla’s total revenues to stand at about $7.1 billion for the quarter. Other revenues, which include revenues from Tesla’s Service operations and renewable energy segment, are expected to stand at close to $1 billion. Tesla should post another quarter of profitability For more details on how Tesla’s net profits are expected to trend, view our interactive dashboard analysis  A Look At Some Of The Trends That Drove Tesla’s Q4 Deliveries   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Why NetApp's Profits Are Likely To Shrink In 2020 Despite Steadily Declining Expenses
  • By Trefis Team, 1/6/20
  • tags: NTAP
    • NetApp  (NASDAQ: NTAP) is a technology company that makes money selling data management hardware, software and solutions. The company has achieved steady growth over FY 2016-2019 (ending April), with the company’s net income witnessing a 5.1x increase over this period thanks to a combination of surging revenues as well as falling expenses. Although expenses in dollar terms are expected to decline in the near term, total expenses as a percentage of revenue are expected to jump in 2020 mainly as a result of a 8% decline in NetApp’s Revenues for the year. This should result in NetApp’s earnings margin (i.e. revenues less all expenses, expressed as a percentage of revenues) shrinking slightly from 19% in 2019 to an expected 18.6% in 2020. Trefis breaks down the company’s major expense components in its interactive dashboard How Does NetApp Spend Its Money?, parts of which are summarized below. Notably, selling costs (which represents the selling and marketing expenses) are expected to be $1.45 billion in 2020 – making up 32% of NetApp’s $4.6 billion in 2020 expected total costs. NetApp’s selling expenses are about 75% of the company’s largest expense driver – the cost of sales. NetApp’s total expenses have declined 6.4% since 2016 – decreasing from $5.3 billion in 2016 to $5 billion in 2019 driven by a 10% decline in operating expenses, partially offset a slight increase in the cost of sales. Total expenses are expected to decline in 2020 driven by a combination of decreasing cost of sales as well as lower operating expenses. However, the company’s total expenses as % of revenue are projected to increase by 40 basis points, from 81% in 2019 to 81.4% in 2020. Breaking Down NetApp’s Total Expenses Cost Of Sales The cost of sales primarily consists of three elements: (1) cost of product revenues, which includes the costs of manufacturing and shipping our storage products (2) cost of software maintenance, which includes the costs of providing software maintenance and third-party royalty costs (3) cost of hardware maintenance and other services revenues. Cost of sales is the single largest expense driver, accounting for nearly 44% of the company’s total expenses in 2019. Total cost of sales as % of revenues has declined from 39.2% in 2016 to nearly 36% in 2019 driven despite higher average selling prices due to higher margins on product revenues and hardware maintenance and other services revenues. However, the cost of sales in absolute terms has nudged ahead from $2.17 billion to $2.2 billion over the same time period. Lower cost of sales (as % of revenues) coupled with steady revenue growth has helped NetApp’s gross margin expand from 60.8% in 2016 to 64.2% in 2019. Going forward, we expect the cost of sales to steeply decline to $1.9 billion in 2019 driven by lower product revenues, representing 33.3% of total revenues of $5.65 billion. Operating Expenses NetApp’s Operating Expenses include sales & marketing, R&D, G&A, and other expenses. Operating expenses have declined 10% since 2016, falling from $3 billion to $2.7 billion in 2019, led by a $135 million decrease in selling expenses as well as a $100 million decrease in other expenses. Sales & marketing expenses have decreased 8% over 2016-19, going down from $1.8 billion in 2016 to around $1.65 billion in 2019 driven primarily by lower compensation and incentive-related costs as well as lower facilities and IT support costs. Other expenses (income) which include restructuring charges and gain on sale of properties have consistently decreased since 2016, falling from $65 million to around -$40 million in 2019 primarily due to one-time gains resulting from the sale/derecognition of assets. G&A expenses are also on a declining with the expenses declining by 9.4% over 2016-19, driven by lower compensation costs. Overall, total operating expenses are projected to fall by 7.7% to $2.5 billion in 2019, representing 44.5% of total revenues. Non-Operating Expenses (Income) NetApp’s non-operating expenses have decreased from $3 million in 2016 to -$47 million in 2019 driven by a combination of higher interest and other income. Additional details about how  NetApp’s Non-Operating Expenses (Income) have trended over the years are available in our interactive dashboard. Income Tax Expense NetApp’s income tax expense has hovered around $120 million over 2016-2019, apart from 2018 when this metric spiked to $1.1 billion due to one-time charges linked to the U.S. tax reform. We expect the company’s effective tax rate to be around 20% in 2020.   What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams All Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Why Has Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Stock Gained 30% In The Last Quarter?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/6/20
  • tags: VRTX ALXN REGN INCY
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRTX) is a bio-pharmaceutical company based in Boston, U.S. The company is one of the first bio-pharma companies that uses rational drug design, whereby its drug molecule is complementary in shape and charge to the biochemical target. This allows the drug to bind itself to and inhibit the target. The company’s current commercial drugs primarily deal with Cystic Fibrosis (CF). VRTX’s most important drug – a 3-in-1 pill called ‘Trikafta’ – was approved by the USFDA in Oct 2019. The treatment was approved for roughly 90% of the 27,000 Cystic Fibrosis patients in the U.S. With one Trikafta treatment costing $311,000 per year, this could substantially boost Vertex’s revenues over coming years. The company’s Q3 earnings also beat estimates with EPS coming in at $1.23 per share as against consensus estimate of $1.15 per share. These factors drove the strong rally in Vertex’s stock in the previous quarter. We step back from these recent swings to review Vertex Pharmaceuticals’   performance over the last few years, as a context for what might come next. Our Interactive dashboard – Why Did Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Share Price Rally 30% In The Last Quarter Of 2019?, reviews the near term reasons and the big picture.   The context for the last few years: A closer look At Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Total Revenues over the last few years and the outlook Total Revenues for Vertex Pharmaceuticals substantially increased from $2.5 Bil in 2017 to $3 Bil in 2018; an increase of 22.5% on account of approval of their third Cystic Fibrosis medicine SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI. This compares with Total Revenues growth of 46.2% in 2017. We expect Total Revenues to grow by 23.4% to $3.8 Billion in 2019.   A closer look At Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Total Expenses over the last few years and the outlook Total Expense for Vertex Pharmaceuticals marginally decreased from $2.5 Bil in 2017 to $2.4 Bil in 2018; a decrease of 2.3%. This compares with Total Expense growth of 41.5% in 2017 on account of higher R&D expenses. We expect Total Expense to decrease by 3.8% in 2019.   How does Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Revenue Growth compare with rivals? For more information on how Vertex Pharmaceuticals’  revenue growth compares with Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Incyte Corporation, view our interactive dashboard analysis.   How has  Vertex Pharmaceuticals’  EBT trended? EBT for Vertex Pharmaceuticals increased substantially from -$15.7 Mil in 2017 to $600 Mil in 2018. We further expect EBT to increase by 134% to $1.4 Bil in 2019.   How has Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Net Income and EPS trended? For more details about   Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Net Income and EPS, view our interactive dashboard analysis   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Anheuser-Busch InBev Sees Sharpest Volume Decline In China. What Does This Mean For The Beer Giant?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: BUD DEO
    • Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) sells different beers, belonging to the (a) premium/high end brands, (b) core brands, and (c) value, discount, or sub-premium brands, in China. For example, the global brand Stella Artois targets the premium category, while the local brand Harbin targets the core category in China. What Happened? Volume sales in China saw their biggest quarterly fall in Q3 2019, when beer volume sold decreased by 5.9% compared to Q3 2018. Volume has increased in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the fall being marginal (1.1%) in Q1 2019, mainly due to the timing of the Chinese New Year. However, the 5.9% decline in Q3 2019 is Anheuser-Busch InBev’s largest decline in China, the market which the company is most bullish about. To understand the trend in volume over recent quarters along with what drove this decline in Q3, refer to the Trefis interactive dashboard – Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Volume: Why Has Beer Volume Decreased In China And What Does This Mean For Anheuser-Busch InBev? Why? One of the main factors that led to the decline in volume sold is a continuous slowing down of the Chinese economy, with the GDP growth having touched a 27-year low of 6% in Q3 2019. Along with lower growth and consumer spending, new rules in China that prohibit sales of alcoholic drinks after 2 a.m. have dragged the industry down. Additionally, shipment phasing, under which the company brought forward some of its volume sales to an earlier quarter due to marketing campaigns and listing of its Asia-Pacific business in Hong Kong, also led to a decline in volume during Q3 2019. So What? The sharp decline of 5.9% in volume during the quarter is likely to affect the full-year revenue growth in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in 2019. Though APAC revenue is expected to increase in 2019, the rate of growth (3%) would be much lower compared to the previous 2 years (7.6% in 2017 and 8.5% in 2018). Increasing premiumization and strong overall performance of the company’s e-commerce business is expected to drive APAC growth over the next two years. Segment revenue could increase from $8.5 billion in 2018 to $9 billion in 2020, adding $0.5 billion in the next two years, which would be much lower than the $1.2 billion added in revenues in the previous two years (2016-2018). For a company that is betting big on the Chinese region, a sharp drop in volume is likely to be a concern, but consumers switching to premium brands (higher revenue per unit) is expected to offset this decline in volume. To understand how other operating divisions of the company are performing, refer to the Trefis analysis- Anheuser-Busch InBev Revenues: How Does Anheuser-Busch InBev Make Money?   What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Is T-Mobile’s Stock Fairly Valued?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: TMUS VZ S
    • Based on its current stock price and future growth prospects, T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) looks undervalued. Trefis has a price estimate of $88 per share for T-Mobile’s stock, which is higher than its current market price of $77.53 as of January 3, 2020. This reflects an upside of 14% from its current level. To understand the major factors that are driving our stock price estimate for T-Mobile, view Trefis interactive dashboard – T-Mobile US Valuation: Expensive or Cheap? – and alter the key assumptions to arrive at your own estimate for the company’s stock price. Company Overview T-Mobile offers wireless communication services through a variety of service plan options. It also offers a wide selection of wireless devices, including smartphones, tablets, and other mobile communication devices, which are manufactured by various suppliers. Competition: (a) Wireless Carriers: Verizon Wireless, Sprint, and AT&T, and regional carriers such as U.S. Cellular and C-Spire; (b) Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs): TracFone Wireless, Comcast, Charter Communications, Altice USA; (c) Technology Companies: Microsoft, Google, Apple. Estimating Total Revenue T-Mobile U.S has added $6 billion to its revenue over the last two years. Increasing sales from both its Postpaid and Prepaid services are likely to add about $4 billion in revenue over the next two years. a) Postpaid Overall, Postpaid Plans & Phones revenue increased from $24.1 billion in 2016 to $27.7 billion in 2018, driven by higher revenues from postpaid mobile plans and equipment. Over the last few years, T-Mobile has been expanding its retail presence and improving coverage. The company has a sizeable amount of low-band spectrum, particularly in the 600 MHz spectrum bands, which allows it to improve its presence in rural and suburban areas in a relatively capital-efficient manner. T-Mobile also appears to be successful at retaining customers. Over Q1-Q3 2019, T-Mobile’s branded postpaid phone churn stood at 0.85%, marking a decline of 17 basis points year-over-year. This is likely being driven by the company’s improving customer service as well as moves to bundle video services such as Netflix with family plans. Going forward, we expect the launch of 5G to accelerate subscriber growth. We expect revenue to grow by 11% in the next two years, to about $30.7 billion in 2020, driven by growth in postpaid revenues. Postpaid services contributed 65% of total revenue in 2018. This share is expected to remain at similar levels by 2020. b) Prepaid To see how T-Mobile’s prepaid plans and phones’ revenue has trended and what is the outlook, view our dashboard analysis. Estimating Net Income Net Income increased from $1.5 billion in 2016 to $2.9 billion in 2018, with a sharp rise in 2017 driven by one-time tax benefits realized due to the TCJ Act. We expect net income to rise from $2.9 billion in 2018 to a little over $4 billion by 2020. This rise in 2019 and 2020 will likely be led by higher revenues and rising margins. Higher margins are likely to be led by lower interest expense, driven by refinancing of $2.5 billion of Senior Reset Notes in April 2018, and lower interest on $600 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Reset Notes retired in April 2019. Estimating Earnings Per Share EPS has grown from $1.75 in 2016 to $3.36 in 2018, with a sharp rise in 2017 led by higher margin due to tax benefits recorded. We estimate EPS to rise to $3.98 in 2019 and further to $4.78 in 2020. EPS increase in 2019 and 2020 can be attributed to higher Net Income, driven by higher revenue and rising margins, partly offset by elevated share count. Share Price Estimation As per T-Mobile’s Valuation by Trefis, we have a price estimate of $88 per share for T-Mobile’s stock. The stock price estimate is arrived at by using the discounted cash flow valuation technique, which you can find in T-Mobile’s detailed financial model here. Based on projected EPS of $4.78 per share and a stock price estimate of $88 per share, T-Mobile’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple stands at 18.5x. To understand how T-Mobile’s P/E multiple compares with major peers like Verizon and AT&T, view our dashboard analysis.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    MU Logo
    How Important Is Cost Of Sales To Micron's Expenses And Overall Profitability?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: MU TXN AMAT
    • Micron’s (NASDAQ: MU) total expenses have risen gradually from around $15.24 billion in 2017 to about $17.05 billion in 2019. As a percentage of revenues, expenses have remained roughly the same, going from 75% in 2017 to 73% in 2019. Cost of sales is the biggest expense head for the company, with it being 58.5% of revenue in 2017, before decreasing slightly to around 54% of revenue in 2019. This decrease has helped offset the rise in R&D and S,G&A expenses and has helped in bringing in an additional $1 in earnings per share between 2017 and 2019. However, with revenue expected to drop slightly in 2020, cost of sales as % of revenue is likely to rise to 60%, leading to a projected drop in net income margin from 27.1% in 2019 to 21.2% in 2020. Further, by 2021, net income margin is set to cross 30%, and this projected growth has helped drive a >70% rise in Micron’s share price over the past year. In our interactive dashboard  How Does Micron Spend Its Money?, we take a look at the key drivers of Micron’s expenses and net margins. Micron’s Net Income Margin has remained volatile, increasing sharply in 2018 and dropping back below 30% in 2019 on the back of a 25% drop in revenue. Margins are expected to drop sharply in 2020 due to a further drop in revenue, owing to the ongoing semiconductor supply glut Breakdown of Micron’s Total Expenses Cost of Goods Sold has increased from $11.89 billion in 2017 to $12.7 billion in 2019, driven primarily by growing raw material costs. As a % of Revenue, Cost of Goods Sold has dropped from 58.5% to 54.3% over the same period. The metric is expected to rise in 2020 to around 60% due to a sharp drop in revenue. SG&A Expense has grown from $743 Mil in 2017 to $836 Mil in 2019. Expense has grown steadily over the past 2 years, but we expect this metric to drop in 2020, as Micron announced plans to cut expenses to weather the ongoing semiconductor downcycle. As a % of Revenues, SG&A has remained roughly flat from 3.7% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2019. Research & Development (R&D) Expenses increased from $1.82 billion in 2017 to about $2.44 billion in 2019 due to continuous spending on advanced semiconductor wafer technology. As a % of Revenue, R&D expenses have increased from 9% to 10.4% during the same period, and is expected to roughly remain the same over the next 2 years. Other operating expenses went from $1 million in 2017 to about $49 million in 2019. This metric primarily includes restructuring charges and other miscellaneous expenses. We expect this metric to be around $61 million in 2021. As a % of Revenue, we expect other operating expenses to remain around 0.2% over the next 2 years. Micron’s Non-Operating Expense Has Decreased From $672 million in 2017 to $328 million in 2019. There was a sharp drop in 2019 due to a drop in net interest expense, as Micron’s interest income exceeded interest expense. Micron’s total debt has dropped from $11.13 billion in 2017 to $5.85 billion in 2019. Going forward, we expect non operating expenses to drop further to around $272 million by 2021. Micron’s Income Tax Expense has increased from $114 million in 2017 to $693 million in 2019, with the Effective Tax rate rising from 2.2% to 9.8% during the same period. Effective tax rate is expected to be around 10% in the near term.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    What Led To A 30% Jump In Roche's Stock In 2019?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: RHHBY JNJ PFE MRK
    • Roche’s  (NASDAQ:RHHBY) stock price grew over 30% from around $30 levels by the end of December 2018 to $40 in 2019, primarily driven by expansion of the P/E multiple, along with revenue growth, a modest growth in margins, and lower share count. Roche’s stock price growth was higher than that for Merck and Johnson & Johnson’s stock over the same period. This outperformance can primarily be attributed to the company’s success with its relatively new drugs, such as Ocrevus, Perjeta, and Tecentriq, among others. In this note we focus on the factors that drove growth for Roche’s stock in 2019. We can break down the movement in the stock price into three factors: 1. growth in revenue, 2.change in net income margin and share count, and 3. expansion of P/E multiple. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~ What Factors Drove Over 30% Growth In Roche’s Stock Over The Last 12 Months? ~ for more details. #1. Revenues Are Expected To Grow 5.2% From $60.7 Billion In 2018 To An Estimated $63.9 Billion In 2019. The Biggest Change In Revenue Was Driven By The Company’s Oncology Drugs Segment. Roche’s oncology drugs portfolio will likely add $1.9 billion in sales this year, driven by higher sales of its new drugs. ( Look How Roche Can Add $5 Billion In Sales By 2021 ). Look at our interactive dashboard analysis for in depth view on on Roche’s revenues . #1.2 Roche’s Revenue Growth Has Been Higher Than Some of Its Peers #2. Adjusted Net Income Grew Largely In Line With Roche’s Revenues, With A Modest Decline In Expenses Growth Rate Roche’s adjusted net income will likely grow from $15.9 billion in 2018 to $16.9 billion in 2019. This can be attributed to modest margin expansion and mid-single-digit growth in revenues, as discussed above. Total Adjusted Expenses will likely grow from $44.8 billion in 2018 to $47.0 billion in 2019, reflecting growth rate of 5%, which is in line with that for revenues. We discuss the factors that impacted the expenses in the below section. What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.  
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    After Growing Almost 70% Over The Last 2 Years, Why Is Nvidia's Revenue Expected To Grow Only 4% By 2021?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: NVDA AMD INTC
    • Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) total revenue has grown from $6.91 billion in 2017 to $11.72 billion in 2019, primarily driven by a growth of $4.09 billion in GPU revenue. However, we expect revenue to drop to $10.88 billion in 2020, amidst dropping PC and notebook sales and a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Regardless, total revenue should rise to around $12.21 billion by 2021, driven by the company’s new Turing products, and a revival in data center demand. Takeaway Nvidia’s GPU segment, which sells graphic processors used in PCs and data centers, is expected to contribute $9.46 billion to total revenue in 2020, making up 87% of Nvidia’s total revenue estimate. The Tegra Processors division is expected to bring in $1.42 billion in 2020, to make up 13% of the total revenue estimate. The GPU division has been the sole driver of revenue growth, and is expected to add $4.51 billion between 2017 and 2021, which is 85% of the additional $5.3 billion that the company is expected to bring in over this period. Nvidia’s total revenue has grown more than 70% between 2017 and 2019, but we expect a 7% YoY drop in revenue for 2020. In our interactive dashboard  Nvidia Revenue: How Does Nvidia Make Money?, we discuss Nvidia’s business model, followed by sections that review past performance and 2021 expectations for Nvidia’s revenue, including comparisons with close competitors, Intel and AMD. A look at Nvidia’s segments and their contribution to total revenue (A) GPU revenue to grow by $420 million over the next 2 years, to make up 87% of total revenue in 2021 GPU revenue has grown from $6.09 billion in 2017 to $10.18 billion in 2019, and has been the primary driver of Nvidia’s revenue growth. However, we expect GPU revenue to drop to $9.46 billion in 2020, under pressure from low PC and notebook sales, and a slowdown in data center demand. However, things should get better by 2021, and we expect revenue in 2021 to come in at $10.6 billion. (B) Revenue from the Tegra Processors segment to grow by $80 million over the next 2 years, to make up 13% of the total revenue estimate Revenue from this segment has grown from $0.82 billion in 2017 to $1.54 billion in 2019. However, revenue from Tegra Processors could come under pressure in 2020, due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy (around 25% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from China). However, by 2021 this metric could grow to $1.62 billion on the back of growing demand for gaming consoles.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    What Are The Factors Behind A 50% Growth In AMD's Revenue Over The Past 2 Years?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: AMD INTC NVDA
    • Advanced Micro Device’s (NASDAQ: AMD) total revenue has grown from $4.32 billion in 2016 to $6.47 billion in 2018, led primarily by the success of AMD’s Ryzen processors and Radeon graphics cards. These products have helped AMD make a dent in the market share of Intel and Nvidia, and have helped drive revenue growth of around 50% over the past 2 years. This growth primarily came from the computing and graphics segment, which has grown by $2.14 billion over this period, with enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom bringing in just $20 million. Going forward, we expect computing and graphics revenue to increase sharply in 2020, led by both Ryzen and Radeon products with AMD’s new 7nm chips. Takeaway AMD’s Computing and Graphics division, which sells microprocessors and graphics processors for notebooks and desktops, is expected to contribute $4.33 billion to total revenue in 2019, making up 63% of AMD’s total revenue estimate. The Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-custom division is expected to bring in $2.54 billion in 2019, to make up 37% of the total revenue estimate. The Computing and Graphics division has been the sole driver of revenue growth, and is expected to add $3.21 billion between 2016 and 2020, which is 83% of the additional $3.87 billion that the company is expected to bring in over this period. This strong revenue growth, combined with growing margins and an expanding PE multiple, has been key to AMD’s stock growing 4x since December 2016. In our interactive dashboard AMD Revenue: How Does AMD Make Money?, we discuss AMD’s business model, followed by sections that review past performance and 2020 expectations for AMD’s revenue, including comparisons with close competitors, Intel and Nvidia. A look at AMD’s segments and their contribution to total revenue (A) Computing and graphics revenue to grow by $1.07 billion over the next 2 years, to make up 63.5% of total revenue in 2020 This segment includes revenue from sales of AMD’s microprocessors and graphics processors, used in both desktops and notebooks. Revenue from this segment has grown from $1.99 billion in 2016 to $4.13 billion in 2018, on the back of strong demand for AMD’s Ryzen processors and Radeon graphics cards. We expect this growth to continue, driving this metric past $5 billion by 2020. (B) Enterprise, embedded and semi-custom revenue to grow by $650 million by 2020, to make up 36.5% of the total revenue estimate This includes revenue from the sale of embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, technology for game consoles, and server microprocessors. Revenue from this segment has remained roughly flat over the past 2 years, as AMD has struggled to make a mark in the server and cloud computing segment. However, amidst AMD’s continued acceptance in gaming consoles and efforts to revive its data center business, we expect revenue from this segment to rise to $3 billion by 2020.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Is Facebook Undervalued?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: FB TWTR SNAP GOOG AAPL MSFT AMZN SINA YELP
    • No, as per Trefis Price estimate  Facebook ‘s (NASDAQ:FB) stock has a fair value of $208, which is in line with the current market price. The company builds products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, and other surfaces. The products are Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Messenger, and Oculus. The company earns its major revenue from selling advertising placements to marketers. In this note we discuss our stock price valuation for Facebook. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~ Facebook’s valuation: Expensive or Cheap  ~ for more details, and also modify our forecasts for the company’s key metrics to understand how changes impact the company’s stock price. #1. Estimating Facebook’s Total Revenues : Total Revenue increased from $27.6 billion in 2016 to $55.8 billion in 2018, and is expected to increase by 20.5% to $67.3 Billion in 2019. Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, How Does Facebook Make Money?, provides an in depth view of Facebook’s Revenues . #2. Deriving Facebook’s Net Income: Net Income increased from $10 billion in 2016 to $22 billion in 2018, and is expected to be around $25 billion in 2019. This increase will likely be led by higher revenues offset by lower margin. #3. Determining Facebook’s EPS: EPS rose from $3.49 in 2016 to $7.57 in 2018, and we estimate it to be $8.17 in 2019. EPS rise in 2018 can be attributed to higher Net Income and lower Shares outstanding. #4. Estimating Facebook’s Share Price: Our Price Estimate of $208 for Facebook’s Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 25.5x P/E Multiple on expected 2019 EPS of $8.17. Our interactive dashboard captures how Facebook compares with its competitors Google and Twitter in terms of Revenue and P/E multiple .    
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    What's Driving Johnson & Johnson's Stock Price Growth?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: JNJ BMY RHHBY PFE MRK
    • Johnson & Johnson’s  (NYSE:JNJ) stock price grew 33% from around $105 levels by the end of 2016 to around $140 in 2019, primarily driven by revenue growth, expansion of the P/E multiple, and margins. Johnson & Johnson’s stock price growth was in line with growth seen for Pfizer but lower than that of Merck’s stock over the same period. Merck’s outperformance can primarily be attributed to the company’s success with its cancer drug Keytruda, which has received several regulatory approvals for multiple indications. In this note we focus on the factors that drove growth for Johnson & Johnson’s stock between 2016 and 2019. We can break down the movement in the stock price into three factors: 1. growth in revenue, 2. change in net income margin and share count, and 3. expansion of P/E multiple. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~ What Factors Drove Over 30% Growth In Johnson & Johnson’s Stock Over The Last 3 Years? ~ for more details. #1. Revenues Are Expected To Grow 14% From $71.9 Billion In 2016 To An Estimated $82.0 Billion In 2019. The Biggest Change In Revenue Was Driven By The Company’s Pharmaceuticals Segment Johnson & Johnson’s pharmaceuticals segment added $7.3 billion in sales between 2016 and 2018, and it will likely add another $1.6 billion in sales this year, driven by higher oncology drugs sales. Look at our interactive dashboard analysis for an in depth view on on Johnson & Johnson’s revenues . #1.2 Johnson & Johnson’s Average Revenue Growth Over The Recent Years Has Been Higher Than Some of Its Peers #2. Adjusted Net Income Grew At A Faster Pace Compared To Johnson & Johnson’s Revenues, Due To Slower Growth In Expenses Johnson & Johnson’s adjusted net income will likely grow from $18.8 billion in 2016 to $23.4 billion in 2019. This can be attributed to margin expansion and growth in revenues. Total Adjusted Expenses will likely grow from $53.1 billion in 2016 to $58.8 billion in 2019, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, which compares with a 4.6% figure for revenues. We discuss the factors that impacted the margin in the below section. What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    What Are The Key Sources of Revenue For Alibaba?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: BABA BIDU SINA AMZN
    • Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) China Commerce business, where revenues are derived from retail e-commerce and associated marketing services in China, is expected to contribute $49 billion to Alibaba’s fiscal 2020 (year ending March 2020) revenues, making up 65% of Alibaba’s $75 billion in revenues for fiscal 2020. The China Wholesale and Other Revenue is expected to be about 12% of total revenues, where wholesale commerce and logistics service revenues are primarily driven by Chinese consumption. Alibaba’s China Commerce business will provide $32 billion, that is 62% of $52 billion in total revenue the company is expected to add between fiscal 2017 to 2020. This China Commerce growth has been key to Alibaba’s 145% price appreciation during the same period, further helped by stable margins, and strong expansion in Alibaba’s valuation multiple. Alibaba’s revenue grew 144% over 2017-2019 to $56 billion and is expected to increase 78% to nearly $100 billion by 2021. We have created an interactive dashboard on Alibaba Revenues: How Does It Make Money?, where we discuss Alibaba’s business model, followed by sections that review past performance and 2021 expectations for Alibaba’s revenue drivers and competitive comparisons with Amazon, Baidu, and Sina. [1] China Commerce Division Revenue growth of about $5 billion over the next two years will be driven by growing need for digital transformation among brick and mortar stores in the world’s largest country by population. [2] China Wholesale & Other Division Revenues to grow by about $4 billion over the next two years due to increase in logistics and wholesale business. [3] Cloud Computing Division Revenues to grow by about $5 billion over the next two years due to increase in average revenue per customer, wider partnerships, and Alibaba’s launch of newer cloud products.  Alibaba’s recently-launched SAAS accelerator helps deploy cloud native technologies across customer IT environments to speed up adoption of Alibaba’s cloud. [D] International Commerce Division Revenues to grow by about $3.7 billion over the next two years due to increase in paying customers and growth in average revenue per customer. [5] Digital Media & Innovation Initiatives Division Revenues to grow by about $2.7 billion over the next two years due to increase in local language content consumption.  Over the next 2 years, we expect this segment revenues to increase by $2.7 billion – likely driven by continued growth in local language content consumption. What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Research Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    How Does Samsung Spend Its Money
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: SSNLF AAPL
    • Samsung Electronics’  (OTC:SSNLF) Total Expenses have trended higher from $161 billion in 2015 to about $181 billion in 2018. As a percentage of revenues, expenses have declined from about 91% in 2015 to about 81% in 2018. Samsung’s Total Expenses are largely driven by Cost Of Sales, which accounted for 55% of Total Revenues in 2018 and 66% of Total Expenses. Cost of Sales as % of Revenue declined from around 62% in 2015 to 54% in 2018, driven by favorable memory pricing, which boosted revenues but did not impact costs as much. This decline has added $13 billion to Samsung’s Operating Income. In other words, costs would have been higher by $13 billion if the Cost of Sales remained around 62% of revenues in 2018 as well). In this analysis, we break down the key drivers of Samsung’s Expenses and Net Margins. View our interactive dashboard analysis  Samsung Expenses: How Does Samsung Spend Its Money A Closer Look At Samsung’s Expenses Samsung’s Total Expenses Have Increased From $161 Billion in 2015 to $181 Billion in 2018 Samsung’s Net Income Margins have increased from about 10% in 2015 to close to 18% in 2018, driven by soaring memory prices. However, we expect margins to decline to about 10% by 2020, as memory prices have seen a correction. Samsung’s Cost of Sales has increased from around $109 billion in 2015 to about $120 billion in 2018. We expect the Cost of Sales to rise to about $134 billion by 2020. Samsung’s Operating Expenses – which include its Selling, General & Administrative Expenses, and R&D Expenses – have increased from $45 billion in 2015 to about $48 billion in 2018. We expect expenses to rise to about $53 billion over 2020. Non-Operating Expenses/(Income) stood at about -$2.1 billion in 2018, driven by higher Finance Income and Lower Finance Expenses. Income Tax Expense has increased from $6 billion in 2015 to about $15 billion in 2018, driven by higher profitability. The company’s Effective Tax Rate has ranged from between 25% to 27.5% and we expect it to remain at current levels going forward. For more details and charts on how Samsung’s individual expense components have trended, view our interactive dashboard analysis  How Does Samsung Spend Its Money   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Is Keurig Dr Pepper’s Stock Undervalued?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: KDP KO PEP
    • Based on its current market price and future growth prospects, Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE: KDP) looks undervalued. Trefis has a price estimate of $31 per share for KDP’s stock, which is higher than its current market price of $28.74 as on January 2, 2020. This reflects an upside of about 8% from its current level. To understand the major factors that are driving our price estimate for KDP’s stock, view the Trefis interactive dashboard – Keurig Dr Pepper Valuation: Expensive or Cheap? – and alter the key assumptions to arrive at your own estimate for the company’s stock price. Company Overview Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) was formed following the merger of Dr Pepper Snapple and Maple Holdings Parent Corp. (which owned Keurig) in July 2018. KDP is a leading beverage company in North America, which offers Beverage Concentrates, Packaged Beverages, and Coffee brewers. Estimating Total Revenues KDP’s Total Revenue is expected to maintain its rising trend, with the company projected to add close to $0.4 billion to its revenue base in the next 2 years. For the full year, we expect revenue to increase by about 1.3% from $11 billion in 2018 to $11.2 billion in 2019, and further by 2.3% to $11.4 billion in 2020, benefiting from the launch of new varieties. KDP is expected to capitalize on the launch of Diet Canada Dry Ginger Ale & Lemonade and the introduction of Canada Dry Ginger Ale and Orangeade, both of which will be supported by marketing investment. The company has also stuck to its strategy of partnerships, which is a key element of its Coffee Systems business. KDP recently partnered with Tim Hortons, the iconic coffee brand in Canada, which was previously unlicensed, and Panera, the well-regarded bakery cafe brand in the U.S. To understand how each operating segment has performed and what is the outlook, view our dashboard analysis. Estimating Net Income Net Income decreased from $1.4 billion in 2017 to $1.1 Billion in 2018. The decrease in margins was led by merger-related costs. Net income margin is expected to increase from 10.1% in 2018 to about 15% in 2019, and further to 16.5% in 2020, driven by expected merger synergies of $200 million in 2019 along with lower advertising and marketing expenditure. Additionally, the absence of merger-related costs, which ate into the margins of 2018, coupled with increasing productivity gains, is expected to provide a further fillip to profitability. Estimating Earnings Per Share EPS decreased from $1.03 per share in 2017 to $0.79 per share in 2018, driven by a drop in net income and stable share count. We estimate EPS to be $1.34 in 2020. EPS growth from 2018 can be attributed to higher Net Income and a flat share count. Share Price Estimation As per Keurig Dr Pepper’s Valuation by Trefis, we have a price estimate of $31 per share for KDP’s stock. The stock price estimate is arrived using the discounted cash flow valuation technique, which you can find in Keurig Dr Pepper’s detailed financial model here. Based on projected EPS of $1.34 per share and stock price estimate of $31 per share, KDP’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple stands at 23x. To understand how KDP’s P/E multiple compares with its major peers, view our interactive dashboard.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Rio Tinto vs. Vale: Who Has The Edge?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: RIO VALE CLF
    • Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and Vale (NYSE: VALE) are the two largest iron ore miners, with their operations diversified in other minerals and metals as well. Trefis details How Revenues And Key Operating Metrics For Rio Tinto And Vale Have Changed in an interactive dashboard, and highlights why Rio Tinto is having higher margins despite its revenue growth being consistently lower than Vale. Although Trefis expects this trend to continue in 2019 as well, we believe that Vale is a much better and efficiently managed company, and this would be reflected in its projected higher profitability in 2020. 1)  Overview Vale is the world leader in iron ore and iron ore pellets production and has access to the world’s largest nickel reserves. Apart from iron ore and nickel, it also produces copper, coal, and other base metals. Vale also operates a large logistics network in Brazil which includes railroad, maritime terminals, and a port. Rio Tinto has operations across six continents, but these are mainly concentrated in Australia and Canada. Although primarily focused on extraction of minerals, Rio Tinto also has significant operations in refining, particularly for refining bauxite and iron ore. 2) Rio and Vale: Current Revenue Rio Tinto reported $40.5 billion in total revenues in 2018, while Vale’s revenue was lower at $36.6 billion. Revenues (and % contribution) of divisions to the top line of these companies was: (Rio Tinto vs Vale) Iron Ore & Pellet : $18.5 billion (45.6%) vs $27.0 billion (73.8%) Other (Nickel, Aluminum, Copper, etc.) : $22.0 billion (54.4%) vs $9.6 billion (26.2%) 3) Rio v/s Vale: Total Revenue and Revenue Growth Trend Rio Tinto and Vale, both saw their total revenues increase in the recent years. However, Rio Tinto’s revenues have consistently been higher than Vale’s revenue base. This was mainly due to better diversification of Rio’s revenue in areas other than iron ore – like aluminum, copper & diamonds, energy, etc. Whereas, Vale’s revenues are largely concentrated by iron ore and pellet, with lesser diversification into other avenues such as nickel, copper, etc. Rio’s total revenues have increased from $33.8 billion in 2016 to $40.5 billion in 2018, while Vale’s revenues increased from $27.5 billion to $36.6 billion during the same period. Rio’s revenue base is likely to expand to $42.4 billion by 2020, compared to Vale’s $39 billion. Rio Tinto’s revenue growth trend has largely moved in tandem with that of Vale. However, despite Rio having a larger revenue base, Vale’s revenue growth has consistently been higher than Rio Tinto, mainly because of a lower base, while Rio’s revenue growth was also affected due to volatility in copper prices and sale of some of its operations. Below we take a look at the Iron Ore division for both companies 3.1) Iron Ore & Pellet Revenue Rio’s iron ore division has added $3.9 billion in revenues between 2016 and 2018, which is almost half compared to Vale’s $7.4 billion incremental revenue during the same period. However, the trend is expected to reverse, with Rio’s iron ore revenue likely to increase by $3.4 billion in the next 2 years (by 2020), compared to $2.1 billion in Vale’s case. This is likely to be driven by higher iron ore shipments for Rio, while Vale’s iron ore shipments are expected to remain flat. 3.1.a) Iron Ore Shipments Rio Tinto’s iron ore shipments have remained lower compared to Vale, though both companies have seen steady growth in volume sales over recent years. Rio’s iron ore shipments are likely to see a cumulative increase of 3 million tons in the next 2 years (with a drop in 2019 led by Tropical Cyclone Veronica, and a fire at Cape Lambert A port). In contrast, Vale’s iron ore shipments are not expected to see any increase from its current level, with it actually dropping in 2019 due to a major dam burst in January 2019, which led to the company cutting down on production. 3.1.b) Price Realization Rio and Vale have seen their iron ore price realization move in tandem, though Vale’s price realization has been consistently higher than Rio’s, with the trend expected to continue. Better price realization is driven by much better iron ore quality at Vale’s mines. With China placing restrictions on ore with iron content of less than 62%, the higher iron ore content in Vale’s ores has helped it command a premium for its production. On the contrary, with most of Rio’s iron ore having Fe content ranging from 55% to 62% (with a very minor portion with 65% Fe), its price has been lower than Vale’s price realization. 4) Rio vs. Vale: Operating Profit Margins Though both companies saw their operating income margins increase in recent years due to rising revenue led by higher output and prices, Rio’s margins surpassed Vale’s in 2017 and 2018, mainly due to gain on sale of coal assets and interest in Grasberg, recorded by Rio in 2017 and 2018. Margin for both companies is expected to drop in 2019, but Vale could see a sharper drop with its one-time expenses related to the Brazilian dam accident. However, Vale will likely outperform Rio in 2020, with all its major one-time expenses already incurred and no major asset sale benefit for Rio. Margins for both companies in 2020 will likely stay below the levels seen in 2017 and 2018, as iron ore prices are projected to decline with slowing demand from China. To see how net income margins have trended for Rio Tinto and Vale and what is the outlook, view our dashboard analysis 5) Conclusion Although Rio Tinto has higher revenues and is more diversified, its revenue growth rate is lower than Vale. Rio Tinto has had better operating and net margins in the last two years, mainly due to one-time gains from asset sales. Vale’s operations are much more efficient, which is evident from higher margins in years when there are no unusual/unexpected one-time events. Vale’s reliance on iron ore is much higher than that of Rio Tinto (74% vs 46%), which provides Rio an advantage when iron ore prices decline, as better diversification helps it cover up revenues through copper, aluminum, energy, diamonds, etc. However, Vale is able to realize much more of an advantage during a boom phase because of its higher-grade ores.  
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    After Continuous Decline For 3 Years, What Is Driving 20% Growth In Barrick’s Gold Shipments?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: GOLD NEM FCX WPM
    • Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) gold shipments refers to the volume of physical gold shipped/sold by the company from its gold mining operations in the United States, Latin America, and Africa. The company’s proven and probable gold reserves stood at 62.3 million ounces at the end of 2018. You can view the Trefis dashboard – Barrick Gold’s Gold Volume: Why Is Gold Shipment Set To Rise >20%, And What Does This Mean For Barrick Gold? – to understand the annual and quarterly trends in Barrick’s gold shipments and what is driving this change. What Happened? Gold shipments are likely to increase by 21% in 2019, as against a sharp decline of 14.3% in 2018 and a declining trend over the last 3 years. As against a cumulative decrease of 1.54 million ounces in gold shipments between 2015 and 2018, shipments are expected to rise by about 1 million ounces in just one year, in 2019. During the first nine months of 2019, gold shipments saw a sharp rise of 22% to 4.1 million, taking the full year estimate to 5.5 million ounces, compared to 4.5 million ounces in 2018, marking a growth of 21%. Why? Historically, annual and quarterly shipments have moved in tandem with gold production trends. Production is set to increase by 21.6%, from 4.5 million ounces in 2018 to 5.5 million ounces in 2019. Barrick’s acquisition of Randgold Resources in January 2019, has led to an increase in the company’s gold mines, reserves, and total production. As against a cumulative decrease of 1.59 million ounces in gold production between 2015 and 2018, production volume is set to rise by about 1 million ounces in just one year, in 2019. So What? A sharp rise in volume produced and sold, due to the Goldcorp acquisition, is expected to lead to a 30% increase in the company’s gold revenues, which could increase from $6.6 billion in 2018 to $8.6 billion in 2019. Higher gold revenue is also expected to lead to an increase in the share of gold revenues to the company’s total revenue from 91% in 2018 to 93% in 2019. To understand how a rise in gold shipments could affect Barrick Gold’s revenues, refer to the following Trefis analysis-  Barrick Gold Revenues: How Does Barrick Make Money? Comparing Barrick Gold and Newmont Goldcorp Barrick Gold and Newmont Goldcorp have seen opposite trends in their gold shipments. While Barrick’s gold shipments declined from 6.1 million ounces in 2015 to 4.5 million ounces in 2018, Newmont’s gold shipments increased from 5.1 million ounces to 5.5 million ounces during the same period. With both gold giants seeing major deals in 2019, they are expected to see sharp rises in gold sales for the year. However, Newmont’s gold volume is expected to see a sharper rise with the company expected to maintain its leadership position in the gold market.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    Why Corning's Margins Are Likely To Remain Under Pressure In 2020
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: GLW DD MMM
    • Corning’s (NYSE: GLW) total expenses to revenue ratio has increased from 84.8% in 2016 to 92.5% due to the company’s expense growth outpacing its revenue growth – a trend we believe continued in 2019 and is likely to remain in 2020. Corning’s elevated expenses over recent years have primarily been due to a sizable increase in Cost of Sales as well as Research, Development and Engineering Costs. While higher Cost of Sales can be attributed to the company’s Display Technologies segment, Research Development & Engineering Costs have been soaring over the years due to new product launches and Corning’s focus on emerging businesses. Trefis details trends in  Corning’s Expenses  over the years along with our forecast for 2019 and 2020 in an interactive dashboard, parts of which are highlighted below.   A Quick Overview of Corning’s Expenses  And Its Key Expense Components: Corning’s total revenues grew at an annual average rate of 7.2% from $9.4 billion in 2016 to $11.4 billion in 2019, and they are estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 3.8% between 2019 and 2020. Total Expenses as a % of Revenues stood at 90.6% in 2018, and is expected to have risen to 92.5% by 2019. Thereafter it is likely to increase slightly to 92.8% in 2020. Cost of Sales: Cost of Sales, which accounted for 66.8% of the company’s total expense in 2018, includes cost of procurement of material, depreciation & amortization of tangible goods, repairs & maintenance. Cost of Sales as % of revenue has been hovering from 59.9% in 2016 to 60.5% in 2018. Trefis estimates the metric to increase to around 63% in the near term – contributing the most to our estimated reduction in Corning’s net income margin figure for the year   Selling & Administrative Costs: Selling and administrative accounted for 17.6% of the company’s total expenses in 2018, which made it the second-highest expense category. This category includes expenses such as salaries, wages & benefits, travel, professional fees, utilities & rent of administrative facilities. It increased from 14.6% of revenues in 2017 to 15.9% in 2018, and we expect it to swell to be 16.6% of revenues in 2020 Additional details about trends in Corning’s Selling & Administrative Costs are available in our interactive dashboard.   Research & Development and Engineering Expenses: R&D & Engineering expenses includes employee compensation paid to the research, development and engineering team. It accounted for 9.7% of the company’s total expenses in 2018. The figure has steadily increased from being 7.8% of revenues in 2016 to 8.8% of revenues in 2018, and we expect it to increase further to 9.2% of revenues by 2020.   Income Tax Expense: Income Tax figure saw a sharp increase in 2017 due to the impact of the tax reform. The effective tax rate stood at 29.1% in 2018 However we estimate it to decrease to 27.1% in the near term.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams All Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    EOG's Revenue Could Jump Significantly In 2020 As Oil Prices Recover
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: EOG CVX CHK
    • EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) is an oil exploration and production company based out of Houston, Texas. It competes with other E&P companies including ConocoPhillips, Chesapeake Energy and Occidental Petroleum. EOG has one of the lowest break-even barrel cost of oil among its peers, which has led to its current out-performance and allowed the company to come through the recent low-price environment. With oil prices rising again, EOG will in all likelihood increase crude output – helping it improve both its revenue and margins. Trefis highlights trends in EOG’s Revenues   over the years along with our forecast for 2019 and 2020 in an interactive dashboard, parts of which are highlighted below.   An Overview of EOG’s Revenues EOG Resources has 3 operating segments that generated $11.9 billion in revenues in 2018. Crude : The company drills and recovers crude oil from a range of sources, largely shale formations in the Permian basin, and other shale formations in the U.S. This segment contributed $9.5 billion or 79% of total revenues in 2018 . Natural Gas : The company drills and recovers natural gas from a range of reserves across North America, Trinidad & Tobago, and other international operations. This segment contributed $1.3 billion or 11% of total revenues in 2018 . Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) : The company has NGL operations across the world, including North America, and the Caribbean. This segment contributed $1.1 billion or 9% of total revenues in 2018 .   EOG’s break-even price of oil remains key to both its revenues and its level of output. With operations based primarily in the Eagle-Ford and the Permian Basin, EOG has one of the lowest levels of break-even prices per barrel of oil among its E&P peers. This level of efficiency and EOG’s recent focus on producing crude over natural gas has led the company to a record level of cash flow. With the price of oil rising once again, the company’s cash flows are only set to increase as it looks to take advantage of higher oil prices. Currently, we expect revenue to grow in the double-digits in 2020, as crude output increases by 10-15% for the year. Our estimate for growth is based on our median estimate for WTI, which is currently at $63 dollars per barrel. Should crude prices improve further to $65 a barrel, we believe that output may increase by 20-25% y-o-y.   Natural Gas and NGL to remain subdued until their prices recover: Natural gas and natural gas liquids both saw their prices decline in 2020, and with little expectation that these prices will rise again in 2020, we see little movement in output and revenue from the divisions.   EOG will very likely see its revenue improve significantly in 2020, as operational efficiency and higher commodity prices drive the top line higher. What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Research Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    How Airbus Has Grown Over The Years To Dethrone Boeing As The Largest Commercial Aircraft Maker
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: BA AIR
    • Airbus ended the year 2019 on a high, with the European commercial airplane manufacturer delivering 863 airplanes for the year in comparison to its larger rival Boeing, which could only manage 345 deliveries. While Airbus has done extremely well over recent years to ramp up production for its popular A320 family of jets, Boeing’s fortunes took a significant hit with the grounding of its 737 MAX aircraft earlier this year. Trefis compares key operating metrics for Boeing vs. Airbus over the years – highlighting how Airbus looked poised to overtake Boeing as the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer even before the latter ran into trouble. Boeing, established in 1916, was the only airplane supplier till 1974 until Airbus (established in 1970) launched its first commercial airplane. Both companies today have a combined share of 91% in the commercial aircraft market globally. Notably, Airbus has been able to take market share away from Boeing over the last 5 years, and had an order book 56% larger than Boeing’s at the end of September 2019. We take a deep dive into the operating performance of both companies over last few years  in our interactive dashboard, parts of which are highlighted below.   Understanding Delivery Numbers For Boeing and Airbus & Their Market Share Since 2014: Growth in airplane deliveries has been higher for Airbus than for Boeing on account of Airbus A320 family Boeing further had bleak deliveries in 2019 on account of the grounding of its 737 MAX series – an issue that is expected to be resolved only in Q4 2020. Boeing delivered a total of 345 commercial aircraft in 2019 – down from 806 in 2018. On the other hand, Airbus’ aircraft deliveries has swelled from 629 in 2014 to 863 in 2019. Airbus has improved its market share from 41.1% in 2014 to 45.3% in 2018. We estimate Airbus’ market share to have spiked to almost 62.5% in 2019 due to the sizable reduction in deliveries for Boeing. Order Backlog for Airbus and Boeing as on September 2019: The backlog for Airbus on September 2019 was 7,133 aircraft whereas for Boeing it was 5,488 aircraft. Boeing’s entire global fleet of 737 MAX aircraft was grounded in March 2019, following two fatal aircraft crashes. The company had an order book of 4,636 units worth $600 billion of the 737 MAX family at the time of the grounding, and faces the threat of order cancellation from several airlines.   Additionally, Boeing’s average revenue per aircraft has been declining over the years while Airbus’s average revenue has remained stable. Additional details about how Airbus’ revenue per aircraft has trended over the years compared to Boeing are available in our interactive dashboard.   Revenue & Profit Comparison For Boeing & Airbus: Boeing Revenues: Commercial Segment Revenues for Boeing declined by 10% in 2016 from $66 Bil in 2015 to $59.4 Bil in 2016 due to lower deliveries Revenue decline of 2.3% was observed in 2017 to $58 Bil. The revenue increased again in 2018 by 4.7% to 60.7 Bil. Airbus Revenues: Airbus’ Commercial Aircraft revenue grew 7.1% in 2016 from a revenue of $50.9 Bil in 2015 to $54.5 Bil in 2016. Revenue further grew by 5.6% in 2017 to $57.6 Bil. A 1.6% decline in revenue was observed in 2018 on account of change in revenue recognition towards engine procurement for the Aircraft Operating Margins: Although the margins earned by commercial section of Boeing are higher than Airbus, the margin improvement in Airbus is much higher than in Boeing, with CAGR in Operating Profits for Airbus coming in at 9.3% versus 4.9% for Boeing.
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    How Are Regulatory Directives Hurting China Telecom’s Revenues?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: CHA CHU CHL
    • Following the Chinese Government’s directive for the country’s telecom companies to upgrade speed and reduce tariff, shares of China Telecom (NYSE: CHA) have lost 25% of their value since March. In the last two years, even as the company geared-up for 5G launch, the elimination of domestic roaming call and data charges coupled with multiple rounds of reduction in mobile data tariffs to promote the Chinese Government’s Digital China initiative has weighed on its revenues. Despite the significant impact of regulatory requirements on the company’s topline, 4G DOU ( average handset data traffic per user per month ) surged 62% (y-o-y) to 7.3 GB during the first half of 2019. While lower tariffs have been integral to this surge in data usage, we expect China Telecom’s Revenues to trend lower in 2020 – something we highlight in detail in our interactive dashboard for the company. A Quick Look At China Telecom’s Revenues China Telecom reported $57 billion in Total Revenues for full-year 2018. This included three revenue segments: Data Services: $44.5 billion in FY2018 ( 78% of Total Revenues ). It includes income from wireless data, wireline data, SMS/MMS services, and application services such as IoT. Voice Services: $7.7 billion in FY2018 ( 14% of Total Revenues ) . It represents income from voice calls over the company’s network Product Sales: $4.8 billion in FY2018 ( 8% of Total Revenues ). The company promotes handset sales bundled with various service discounts as a means to expand its customer base. Total Revenues to trend lower in 2020 Since 2016, the total revenues have been growing at a low single-digit rate primarily from increasing demand for wireless/mobile data. However, revenue growth turned negative due to the ongoing reduction in mobile and broadband data tariffs. The Data Services segment has been cannibalizing the Voice Services segment as users shifted from traditional network calls to internet-based VoIP calls. Consistent with the directive of a 20% reduction in data tariffs by 2020, we expect China Telecom to continue facing revenue pressure in the near term, despite higher data consumption and widespread availability of 5G services. We expect the company to lose $1.5 billion in total revenues by 2020, from the recent regulatory requirements. Lower data tariffs leading to a surge in consumption In 2018, China Telecom reported average monthly handset data traffic per 4G user (DOU) of 5.5 GB, growing by more than 100% over the prior year. This growing data consumption trend has continued in 2019, with the company reporting 7.3 GB of DOU in its interim (half-yearly) report. Moreover, IoT smart connections have been growing at an exponential rate with the company adding 26 million new connections during the first half of 2019. This has led to a surge in Application and Information Service revenues, which have been growing at a double-digit rate despite relatively flat overall Data Service revenues. What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams All Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own
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    Is Delta Airlines Too Optimistic About Its Revenue Growth Prospects In 2020?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/3/20
  • tags: DAL AAL JBLU LUV
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    Where Is Sprint Corp Spending Most Of Its Money?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/2/20
  • tags: S T VZ
    • Sprint Corp (NYSE: S) saw strong volatility in its total expense level, with it decreasing sharply from $35.6 billion in 2017 to $25 billion in 2018 (due to one-time tax benefits) before increasing to $35.5 billion in 2019. As a percentage of revenues, expenses have decreased from 103.6% in 2017 to 77.2% in 2018, before rising to 105.8% in 2019. Cost of sales is the largest expense component for the company, with it accounting for almost 38% of Sprint’s total expenses in 2019. Cost of sales accounted for 39.8% of revenues as of 2019, reflecting a drop from 46.2% in 2017. This decline from 46.2% to 39.8% has added about $2.1 billion to the company’s profits, which translates into additional earnings of $0.53 per share. Cost of sales is further expected to drop to about 38.5% of revenues in 2021, which could lead to additional profit of about $457 million, translating into additional earnings of $0.11/share over the next two years. In our interactive dashboard How Does Sprint Spend Its Money?, we discuss how key expense drivers are performing. Total Expenses Sprint’s total expenses have increased from $34.6 billion in 2017 to about $35.5 billion in 2019. For 2020, we expect expect total expenses to stand at $33.6 billion, which comprises of- Cost of Sales: $13.3 billion Operating Expenses: $18 billion Non-Operating Expense (Income): $2.3 billion Income Taxes: $25 million Net Income Margins have decreased from -3.6% in 2017 to -5.8% in 2019, driven by higher depreciation and goodwill impairment. Margins are expected to rise to -0.1% in 2020 and then to 1.7% by 2021, on the back of rising revenues and better cost management. Cost of Sales Cost of sales decreased from $15.4 billion in 2017 to $13.4 billion in 2019, driven by a decrease in volume of used postpaid devices sold to third parties, a decline in postpaid and prepaid devices sold as a result of the higher mix of postpaid subscribers choosing to lease their devices and lower accessory costs. The cost is expected to go marginally down to $13 billion by 2021. As a % of revenues, cost of sales as continuously declined from 46.2% in 2017 to 39.8% in 2019, with it likely to decline further to 38.5% by 2021. SG&A SG&A expense has decreased from $8 billion in 2017 to $7.8 billion primarily due to lower commission costs combined with lower marketing costs, partially offset by higher general and administrative cost due to higher customer care costs and bad debt expense. As a % of revenue, SG&A cost has decreased from 24% in 2017 to 23.1% in 2019, which is expected to decline to 22.5% in 2021. D&A D&A expense has increased steadily from $8.2 billion in 2017 to $9.4 billion in 2019 primarily due to increased depreciation on new asset additions and increased depreciation on new leased devices as a result of the continued growth of the device leasing program. It is expected to rise to $10 billion by 2021. As % of revenue, D&A has increased continuously from 24.4% in 2017 to 27.9% in 2019, and is likely to increase to 29.5% by 2021. Other operating Expenses After being close to nil, other operating expenses increased sharply to $2.6 billion in 2019, as the Company completed its annual impairment testing for goodwill assigned to the Wireless reporting unit and as a result, recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $2.0 billion. The cost is expected to go down again in the near term. Non-Operating Expenses Non-operating expenses have marginally declined from $2.5 billion in 2017 to $2.4 billion in 2019 primarily due to $169 million of interest income and other income of $24 million as a result of a legal settlement. Interest as a % of debt increased from 6.1% in 2017 to 6.4% in 2019 led by higher interest rates, with the metric falling to 5.8% in 2018 due to replacement of higher interest debt with lower interest financing. To understand how interest and non-operating expenses are expected to trend going forward, view our dashboard analysis. Effective Tax Rate Effective tax rate has seen a lot of fluctuation in the recent years, with it decreasing sharply from 56.4% in 2017 to -2335% in 2018, driven by large one-time tax benefits realized on the back of the TCJ Act, before rising to -1.8% in 2019. The rate is expected to be around 4.5%-5.0% in the near term.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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    What Are The Factors Behind A Slow Lower Single-Digit Growth In Kimberly-Clark's Revenue?
  • By Trefis Team, 1/2/20
  • tags: KMB PG CL UL
    • Kimberly-Clark’s (NYSE: KMB) revenue has grown from $18.2 billion in 2016 to $18.49 billion in 2018, on the back of steady growth in emerging markets, and a rise in selling prices. However, adverse foreign currency fluctuations and a lack of growth in the personal care segment, have weighed down revenue, with growth of only 0.5-1% YoY in the last 2 years. We expect to see similar growth going forward, with revenue to grow to $18.66 billion by 2020. Takeaway Kimberly-Clark’s Personal Care segment, which primarily sells baby care and feminine care products, is expected to contribute $8.97 billion to total revenue in 2019, making up 49% of KMB’s total revenue estimate. The Consumer Tissue division is expected to bring in $6.03 billion in 2019, to make up 33% of the total revenue estimate. The expected $460 million of revenue growth for Kimberly-Clark between 2016 and 2020, will be driven primarily by a $320 million growth in the KC Professional segment. Kimberly-Clark’s total revenue has grown by around 1.5% between 2016 and 2018, and we expect a further 1% growth in revenue by 2020. In our interactive dashboard  Kimberly-Clark Revenue: How Does Kimberly-Clark Make Money?, we discuss KMB’s business model, followed by sections that review past performance and 2020 expectations for KMB’s revenue, including comparisons with close competitors, Procter & Gamble and Unilever. A look at Kimberly-Clark’s segments and their contribution to total revenue (A) Personal Care revenue to remain roughly flat over the next 2 years, making up 49% of total revenue Personal care revenue has seen no change over the past 2 years, going from $9.07 billion in 2016 to $9.06 billion in 2017. Amidst foreign currency headwinds and growing competition in emergency markets, we don’t see this metric growing over the next 2 years. We expect revenue from this segment to come in at $8.97 billion in 2019 and $9.06 billion in 2020. (B) Consumer Tissue Revenue to grow by $90 million over the next 2 years to make up 33% of 2020’s total revenue estimate Consumer Tissue revenue has grown marginally from $5.98 billion in 2016 to $6.03 billion in 2018. A major part of the revenue from this segment comes from North America, and we expect the same going forward. We expect this metric to grow to $6.12 billion by 2020. (C) KC Professional revenue expected to grow by around $90 million over the next 2 years, to make up the remaining 18% of total revenue in 2020 This segment has added around $230 million between 2016 and 2018, making up almost 80% of the $290 million revenue growth over the same period. We expect revenue from this segment to keep growing, reaching around $3.48 billion by 2020.   What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For  CFOs and Finance Teams  |  Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? Explore  example interactive dashboards  and create your own.
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