Target (TGT)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $91.4 | Market Cap: $41.6 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Target (TGT)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $91.4Market Cap: $41.6 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1%, FCF Yield is 6.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TGT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Target (TGT) stock moved by -2.7% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 8, 2025:
1. Lowered Full-Year Profit Outlook and Weak Holiday Sales Forecast.
Target significantly cut its full-year 2025 profit forecast and cautioned that the upcoming holiday season was expected to be weaker than anticipated, primarily due to consumers struggling with rising living costs. This updated guidance suggested full-year earnings per share would be between $7 and $8, a notable decrease from its original 2025 guidance and the previous year's performance.
2. Decline in Comparable Sales.
The company reported a 2.7% decrease in comparable sales for the third quarter ended November 1, 2025, which was a significant miss compared to analyst expectations for a positive growth. This indicated ongoing challenges in attracting customers to its stores and online platforms for non-essential purchases.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TGT Return | 40% | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -29% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 13% | -12% | 37% | 40% | 15% | 183% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TGT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 43% | 72% | 68% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TGT Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -39% | -28% | -12% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -12% | -32% | -5% | -4% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST. See TGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1508 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TJX, ROST
In The Past
Target's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Target Earnings Notes | |||
| Target Earnings Notes | |||
| Ten-Year Tally: TGT Returns $38 Bil to Shareholders | |||
| How Low Can Target Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Should You Buy Target Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| How Does Target Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From UNH, OXY | |||
| Better Bet Than TGT Stock: Pay Less Than Target To Get More From PPC, SJM | |||
| TGT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Target Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 7.0% in 2025 and -7.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| The Real Story Inside Target’s Q3 Earnings | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Target Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| TGT Drops 15% In A Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | September 18th, 2025 | ||
| TGT Lost 15% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait? | September 16th, 2025 | ||
| How Target Stock Can Fall 50%? | September 11th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Target
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 165.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 284.1 |
| Rev LTM | 190,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,430 |
| FCF LTM | 5,939 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,714 |
| CFO LTM | 9,860 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 284.1 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 22.8 |
| P/E | 30.4 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & beverage | 23,899 | 22,918 | 20,306 | 18,135 | 15,039 |
| Household essentials | 18,746 | 18,483 | |||
| Home furnishings & décor | 17,760 | 19,463 | 20,255 | 18,231 | 14,430 |
| Apparel & accessories | 16,485 | 17,646 | 17,931 | 14,772 | 14,304 |
| Hardlines | 16,162 | 17,739 | 18,614 | 16,626 | 12,595 |
| Beauty | 12,538 | 11,092 | |||
| Credit card profit sharing | 667 | 734 | 710 | 666 | 680 |
| Advertising revenue | 522 | 404 | |||
| Other | 420 | 394 | 921 | 670 | 448 |
| Other merchandise sales | 213 | 247 | |||
| Beauty & household essentials | 27,268 | 24,461 | 20,616 | ||
| Total | 107,412 | 109,120 | 106,005 | 93,561 | 78,112 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.8% | -2.2% | |
| 8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | -5.2% | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| 3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -13.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | -21.4% | -18.3% | -15.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | -8.0% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| 3/5/2024 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 14 | 17 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -5.2% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3122025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3132024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11242021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
