AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (9/11/2026): $147.87 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (9/11/2026): $147.87
Market Cap: $-
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14%

Key risks
AVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more.

0 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14%
1 Key risks
AVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more.

AVAV in ETFs

Weight = AVAV's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.16%
VB0.07%
ARKX4.2%
ARKQ2.5%
BOTZ1.6%
+21 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 9/9/2026

AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has lost about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Accounting errors and subsequent restatement of financial statements eroded investor confidence in June 2026. AeroVironment disclosed in a regulatory filing on June 22, 2026, that its audit committee found errors in its fiscal Q3 2026 (ended January 31, 2026) 10-Q statement. These errors involved the carrying value in its goodwill impairment calculation, resulting in an understatement of loss from operations by $89.4 million and net loss by nearly $87.3 million, and an overstatement of total assets by $89.4 million. This event caused the stock to lose more than 20% of its value during June 2026.

2. The termination and re-competition of the approximately $1.4 billion SCAR Space Force contract created a significant structural headwind. Although the decision to reopen the SCAR (Space and Cyberspace Advanced Reconnaissance) program for competitive bidding occurred earlier in 2026, its impact on future revenue outlook continued to pressure the stock during the specified period. Analysts responded with downgrades, such as Raymond James cutting its rating from Strong Buy to Underperform in March 2026 due to uncertainty over the contract, which had been AeroVironment's largest. The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy (SCDE) segment's revenue subsequently declined by 21% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2027 (ended August 1, 2026), partly attributed to discontinued programs including the SCAR contract termination.

Show more
Updated on 9/9/2026

AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has lost about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Accounting errors and subsequent restatement of financial statements eroded investor confidence in June 2026. AeroVironment disclosed in a regulatory filing on June 22, 2026, that its audit committee found errors in its fiscal Q3 2026 (ended January 31, 2026) 10-Q statement. These errors involved the carrying value in its goodwill impairment calculation, resulting in an understatement of loss from operations by $89.4 million and net loss by nearly $87.3 million, and an overstatement of total assets by $89.4 million. This event caused the stock to lose more than 20% of its value during June 2026.

2. The termination and re-competition of the approximately $1.4 billion SCAR Space Force contract created a significant structural headwind. Although the decision to reopen the SCAR (Space and Cyberspace Advanced Reconnaissance) program for competitive bidding occurred earlier in 2026, its impact on future revenue outlook continued to pressure the stock during the specified period. Analysts responded with downgrades, such as Raymond James cutting its rating from Strong Buy to Underperform in March 2026 due to uncertainty over the contract, which had been AeroVironment's largest. The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy (SCDE) segment's revenue subsequently declined by 21% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2027 (ended August 1, 2026), partly attributed to discontinued programs including the SCAR contract termination.

3. Analyst downgrades and maintained fiscal year 2027 guidance despite strong quarterly beats fueled skepticism about long-term profitability and growth. In July 2026, RBC Capital Markets downgraded AeroVironment's stock from Outperform to Sector Perform and reduced its price target from $210 to $180, citing concerns over the feasibility of achieving ambitious long-term financial targets amidst flat defense budgets, elevated capital expenditures, and potentially prolonged periods of negative free cash flow. While AeroVironment reported fiscal Q1 2027 (ended August 1, 2026) adjusted earnings of $0.59 per share and revenue of $480.5 million, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $0.30 and $459.9 million, respectively, the company only reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance instead of raising it. This, coupled with a decline in non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to $53.4 million from $56.6 million in the prior-year quarter and negative free cash flow of $36 million for the quarter, contributed to continued investor caution.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV-29.0% 
Market (SPY)0.2%39.8%
Sector (XLI)-1.5%37.4%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV-41.7% 
Market (SPY)10.8%32.6%
Sector (XLI)-3.4%28.1%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV-39.1% 
Market (SPY)18.5%33.9%
Sector (XLI)13.4%31.0%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV51.6% 
Market (SPY)74.2%30.5%
Sector (XLI)64.1%31.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AVAV Return-29%38%47%22%57%-42%62%
Peers Return17%10%16%16%58%-7%152%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AVAV Win Rate42%58%67%50%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate52%53%52%55%60%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AVAV Max Drawdown-58%-32%-17%-35%-44%-65% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-27%-22%-17%-22%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAVAVS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-29.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven42.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-14.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven31 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-25.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven67 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-40.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven67.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven755 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-26.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.5%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-39.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.8%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven260 days15 days

Compare to KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT

In The Past

AeroVironment's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAVAVS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-29.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven42.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-25.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven67 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-40.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven67.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven755 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-26.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.5%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-39.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.8%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven260 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-22.3%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.7%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven74 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-23.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.9%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven20 days1085 days

Compare to KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT

In The Past

AeroVironment's stock fell -29.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AeroVironment (AVAV)

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a technology company that specializes in designing, developing, producing, and supporting a portfolio of robotic systems and related services. The company primarily operates within the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS) segments, providing advanced solutions to both government agencies and businesses.

The company's core offerings include a range of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, tactical missile systems, and high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS. These products encompass airborne platforms, integrated payloads, ground control systems, and ground support equipment. AeroVironment also provides essential services such as spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support for its small UAS products. Its primary customers are organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments, for whom it supplies critical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

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Lockheed Martin for military drones and unmanned systems.

Boeing for tactical unmanned aerial and missile systems.

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  • Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): Robotic aerial systems, including airborne platforms, payloads, ground control systems, and ground support equipment.
  • Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS): A specific category of larger unmanned aircraft systems, forming one of the company's operating segments.
  • Tactical Missile Systems: Guided weapon systems supplied primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments.
  • High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS) UAS Systems: Advanced unmanned aerial systems designed for long-endurance flight at high altitudes.
  • ISR Services: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance services provided using their unmanned aircraft systems.
  • UAS Support & Maintenance: Services including repairs, customer support, and the provision of spare parts, alternative payload modules, batteries, and chargers.

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AeroVironment (AVAV) sells primarily to government agencies and other businesses. Its major customers are:

  • U.S. Department of Defense
  • International allied governments

These entities are government organizations and do not have public company symbols.

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Here is the management team for AeroVironment (symbol: AVAV):

Wahid Nawabi - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer

Wahid Nawabi has served as AeroVironment's CEO since May 2016 and as a director since 2016, ascending to Chairman in 2021. He joined the company in 2011 as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Efficient Energy Systems division. Under his leadership, AeroVironment has achieved significant growth and driven the development of advanced unmanned aircraft systems, including the Switchblade and Puma AE drones. Prior to AeroVironment, Mr. Nawabi held leadership positions at APC by Schneider Electric, C&D Technologies, and Altergy, a proton-exchange membrane-based fuel cell manufacturer. He began his career at an MIT startup after earning a degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Maryland, College Park.

Kevin McDonnell - Chief Financial Officer

Kevin McDonnell was appointed as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AeroVironment in February 2020. He brings over 30 years of experience in financial, IT, and HR leadership roles across technology, automotive, and health industries. Most notably, Mr. McDonnell served as CFO of JAMS, Inc., where he helped nearly double its revenue and more than double its EBITDA. He also held senior financial roles at Teradata Corporation during its high-growth phase, contributing to its revenue expansion from $3 million to $300 million and global presence. Additionally, he was instrumental as CFO of Digital Insight in significantly growing annual revenue, taking the company public, and leading three acquisitions. Mr. McDonnell earned his J.D. at Loyola Law School and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from Loyola Marymount University.

Trace Stevenson - President, Autonomous Systems

Trace Stevenson serves as the President of Autonomous Systems at AeroVironment. Additional detailed background information was not readily available in the search results.

Mary Clum - President, Space, Cyber & Directed Energy

Mary Clum holds the position of President, Space, Cyber & Directed Energy at AeroVironment. Additional detailed background information was not readily available in the search results.

Church Hutton - Chief Growth Officer

Church Hutton assumed the role of Chief Growth Officer at AeroVironment in May 2025, where he leads the company's strategic expansion and long-term growth initiatives. Previously, he served as Senior Vice President of Government Relations, Marketing and Communications starting in 2024. Prior to joining AeroVironment, Mr. Hutton led all aspects of Mercury Systems' government relations program.

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Here are the key risks to AeroVironment's business:

  1. Dependence on Government Contracts and Unpredictable Revenue: AeroVironment's financial performance is heavily reliant on contracts with government agencies, particularly the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments. This reliance leads to "lumpy" revenue, meaning the timing and realization of revenue from these contracts can be unpredictable and fluctuate significantly, potentially causing the company to miss financial expectations in certain quarters. A prime example is the recent decision by the Pentagon to reopen bidding for the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource (SCAR) program, which was initially awarded to AeroVironment's subsidiary BlueHalo. This change resulted in a $151 million goodwill impairment charge and a significant impact on projected revenue.
  2. Integration and Financial Risks from Acquisitions: The substantial acquisition of BlueHalo, while expanding AeroVironment's capabilities and market reach, has introduced considerable integration challenges and financial risks. The company faces the ongoing task of effectively merging distinct corporate cultures and technological infrastructures. Furthermore, the acquisition has led to increased financial burdens, including heavy non-cash amortization expenses and negative operating cash flow. AeroVironment also reported a significant goodwill impairment charge of $151.3 million, primarily due to a stop-work order on a key contract within the Space reporting unit, which is part of the BlueHalo acquisition, indicating potential weaknesses and challenges in the acquired operations.
  3. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Operational Inefficiencies: AeroVironment is exposed to risks associated with its supply chain, particularly its reliance on specialized components like sensors and batteries, which makes it susceptible to global shortages and disruptions. The company has also experienced operational inefficiencies, reflected in an increase in its cost of sales, which has negatively impacted gross margins. These inefficiencies may partly stem from the complexities of integrating the BlueHalo acquisition and the ongoing efforts required to streamline its expanded operations for optimal performance.

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AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) participates in several addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily across unmanned systems, tactical missile systems, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) services.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

  • AeroVironment's management estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for uncrewed systems, which includes their unmanned aircraft systems, will reach $15 billion by fiscal year 2030, specifically across NATO and allied nations.
  • Globally, the unmanned aircraft systems market was valued at approximately USD 26.89 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to about USD 48.17 billion by 2030. Other estimates suggest the global Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market size could reach USD 160.44 billion by 2034, or the global Unmanned Aircraft Systems Market size could reach $82.65 billion by 2030, and USD 189.57 million by 2034.
  • For North America, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market was valued at USD 14.08 billion in 2025, with the U.S. market projected to reach USD 15.47 billion by 2026. The North America UAS Market was valued at USD 15.68 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 77.46 billion by 2034. Specifically, the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market has been valued at USD 11 billion based on a five-year historical analysis.

Tactical Missile Systems

  • AeroVironment's management projects the total addressable market (TAM) for offensive systems, including their tactical missile systems, to exceed $10 billion by fiscal year 2030 for NATO and allied nations.
  • The global missiles market was valued at USD 64.26 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 122.48 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global missile market size at USD 55.70 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 93.56 billion by 2030.
  • The North America missile market accounted for over 39.37% of the global revenue in 2023. The USA Rocket and Missile Market was valued at USD 16.25 billion in 2023.

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Services

  • The global Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Market size was valued at approximately USD 41.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 57 billion by 2030. Another forecast indicates growth from USD 44.4 billion in 2025 to USD 76.5 billion by 2035.
  • North America holds a significant share, estimated at 55% of the global ISR market, and is expected to reach a value of over USD 26.5 billion by 2034. The U.S. C4ISR market, which includes ISR, was valued at USD 48.32 billion in 2024.
  • For airborne ISR specifically, the global market size was USD 13.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 25.2 billion by 2032.

Space Technology

  • AeroVironment's management estimates the total addressable market (TAM) for space technology to be $23 billion by fiscal year 2030, covering NATO and allied nations.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AeroVironment (AVAV)

Over the next 2-3 years, AeroVironment (AVAV) is anticipated to experience revenue growth driven by several key factors:

  • Growth in Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS) Sales: The Loitering Munitions Systems segment continues to be a significant growth driver for AeroVironment, with substantial year-over-year revenue increases and notable contract awards, including a nearly $1 billion five-year U.S. Army IDIQ sole-source contract in fiscal year 2025.
  • Increased Demand for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Solutions: The Autonomous Systems segment, encompassing UAS platforms such as Puma, P550, and JUMP 20, is consistently cited as a strong growth driver, indicating sustained and increasing demand for these products.
  • Expansion of Counter-UAS and Directed Energy Solutions: AeroVironment is poised for growth through its innovative counter-UAS and directed energy offerings, including the Titan family of counter-UAS solutions, the LOCAST directed energy product, and progress on the FE-1 program with the U.S. Army. These new products and solutions address evolving defense needs.
  • Contribution from the BlueHalo Acquisition and Integration: The acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025 significantly expanded AeroVironment's portfolio into Space, Cyber, and Directed Energy. This integration is expected to introduce new revenue streams and leverage synergies, with products like the Badger phased array solution also contributing to growth.
  • Growth in International Markets: International sales are a crucial component of AeroVironment's revenue, accounting for 52% of total revenue in fiscal year 2025, with strong growth from non-Ukraine European customers. The company's robust demand and diversified product offerings are expected to continue driving international expansion.

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Share Repurchases

  • AeroVironment has not reported significant dollar amounts of share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.

Share Issuance

  • In July 2025, AeroVironment completed a public offering of 3,528,226 shares of common stock at $248.00 per share, generating approximately $875.0 million in gross proceeds.
  • Concurrently in July 2025, the company completed a public offering of $747.5 million aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030, with aggregate gross proceeds from both offerings expected to be approximately $1.6 billion.
  • The acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025 for approximately $4.1 billion was an all-stock transaction, involving the issuance of 18,548,698 shares, representing about 39.5% of the pro forma combined company's fully diluted shares outstanding.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2024, AeroVironment acquired BlueHalo for approximately $4.1 billion in an all-stock transaction, significantly expanding its capabilities in space, cyber, and directed energy.
  • In August 2023, AeroVironment acquired Tomahawk Robotics for $120 million.
  • In January 2021, AeroVironment acquired Arcturus UAV for $405 million.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be $60-$70 million, primarily to complete the Utah facility.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to remain between 5% and 7% of revenue as the company expands manufacturing capacity to meet anticipated demand.
  • In March 2026, AeroVironment announced plans to invest over $30 million to expand its manufacturing operations in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense

AVAV has trailed 59% of its 54 Aerospace & Defense peers over 5Y. Aerospace & Defense ranks 4th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Aerospace & Defense constituents that AVAV has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
21%
of 70 industry peers · -40.5% return
3Y
37%
of 60 industry peers · 29.8% return
5Y
41%
of 54 industry peers · 56.7% return
No Aerospace & Defense peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AVAV by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Aerospace & Defense is AVAV's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 31 6.7%106.6%186.1% CDNL 2524% · FIX 2164% · STRL 2119%
Marine Transportation 5 71.5%63.4%169.6% HOS 47268% · MATX 180% · KEX 170%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 9.8%60.5%118.8% CAT 328% · ALSN 281% · WAB 223%
Aerospace & Defense ← 55 -2.4%55.8%73.2% ATI 1049% · FTAI 890% · HWM 641%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -20.8%32.6%54.0% UBER 82% · CAR 54% · LYFT -70%
Rail Transportation 7 34.2%69.5%45.3% FSTR 140% · CSX 70% · UNP 54%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 2.8%34.1%38.5% DXPE 563% · AIT 286% · WCC 214%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 71 4.4%44.2%35.8% CRS 1402% · PSIX 946% · GHM 595%
Cargo Ground Transportation 16 39.9%3.6%34.1% XPO 256% · R 249% · CVLG 230%
Diversified Support Services 33 9.3%25.8%27.6% LIME 3705% · TH 395% · WLFC 371%
Electrical Components & Equipment 41 14.2%53.1%19.9% POWL 2198% · BE 1218% · VRT 916%
Building Products 33 -11.6%-1.2%11.8% LMB 580% · GFF 397% · PPIH 297%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 17 14.7%-0.7%-6.3% BLBD 222% · DE 99% · GENC 58%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 8.0%11.8%-6.6% RCMT 548% · CSW 130% · CSL 75%
Environmental & Facilities Services 29 -11.4%23.5%-10.9% CECO 996% · ADUR 387% · NVRI 365%
Research & Consulting Services 13 -10.0%-23.6%-11.5% HURN 204% · CRAI 92% · GRNQ 65%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -32.6%-15.0%-26.0% EXLS 42% · BR 9% · G -26%
Passenger Airlines 11 -0.4%-4.8%-28.5% LTM 3259% · UAL 140% · SKYW 121%
Office Services & Supplies 9 8.3%26.9%-33.0% PBI 195% · TILE 142% · HNI 53%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 5.3%-22.2%-38.2% BBSI 82% · ADP 47% · PAYX 22%
Security & Alarm Services 10 -33.0%5.7%-38.5% CIX 142% · MG 111% · NL 72%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -9.8%-25.0%-39.5% CHRW 94% · FDX 66% · EXPD 59%
Airport Services 3 -69.9%-80.2%-58.7% JOBY -32% · ASLE -59% · UP -100%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Mkt Price147.0646.98518.95530.12198.1279.18172.59
Mkt Cap-8.973.7122.0267.613.773.7
Rev LTM-1,52242,89277,01493,50015,29942,892
Op Inc LTM-234,5989,15310,4851,0264,598
FCF LTM--1293,6468,72910,9857593,646
FCF 3Y Avg--622,5266,3367,2086962,526
CFO LTM--405,07810,40214,2061,2365,078
CFO 3Y Avg-124,1428,08010,3851,1074,142

Growth & Margins

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Rev Chg LTM-25.5%5.9%7.2%11.8%8.8%8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.6%4.3%4.6%10.0%5.2%5.2%
Rev Chg Q-30.5%5.1%10.5%14.5%3.0%10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-7.6%1.2%2.5%3.5%0.7%2.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM-13.2%15.6%53.7%26.0%23.9%23.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-109.1%11.5%7.5%56.7%5.9%11.5%
Op Mgn LTM-1.5%10.7%11.9%11.2%6.7%10.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.3%9.1%10.7%8.3%6.8%8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.4%-0.4%2.0%0.3%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM--2.6%11.8%13.5%15.2%8.1%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.4%10.0%11.0%12.5%7.7%10.0%
FCF/Rev LTM--8.5%8.5%11.3%11.7%5.0%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--4.4%6.1%8.6%8.6%4.8%6.1%

Valuation

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Mkt Cap-8.973.7122.0267.613.773.7
P/S-5.81.71.62.90.91.7
P/Op Inc-381.916.013.325.513.416.0
P/EBIT-226.612.514.322.910.614.3
P/E-286.716.419.434.614.719.4
P/CFO--223.714.511.718.811.111.7
Total Yield-0.3%7.9%7.8%4.3%7.0%7.0%
Dividend Yield-0.0%1.8%2.6%1.4%0.1%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--0.7%3.6%5.6%3.9%4.5%3.9%
D/E-0.00.20.20.10.30.2
Net D/E--0.10.20.10.10.20.1

Returns

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
1M Rtn-25.0%-26.3%-9.4%-10.8%-11.2%-10.2%-11.0%
3M Rtn-19.9%-20.1%-5.6%-2.8%7.9%-15.5%-10.6%
6M Rtn-30.6%-47.5%-28.9%-17.8%-1.7%-13.5%-23.3%
12M Rtn-40.5%-28.4%-9.0%17.2%29.7%-2.2%-5.6%
3Y Rtn29.8%218.5%28.4%36.5%173.5%4.5%33.1%
1M Excs Rtn-23.2%-24.5%-7.7%-9.0%-9.4%-8.5%-9.2%
3M Excs Rtn-19.4%-18.8%-8.3%-2.9%7.6%-17.8%-13.0%
6M Excs Rtn-41.2%-59.2%-40.6%-29.4%-15.7%-27.1%-35.0%
12M Excs Rtn-52.9%-43.8%-24.3%2.4%15.9%-18.2%-21.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-14.5%133.9%-42.3%-39.8%78.5%-65.6%-27.2%

Comparison Analyses

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
UnCrewed Systems (UxS)382448344301 
Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS)3521931217687
MacCready Works (MW)87767669 
All other    56
Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS)    16
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS)    236
Total821717541446395


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
UnCrewed Systems (UxS)18721112529 
Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS)1296843-3-3
MacCready Works (MW)2219206 
Impairment of goodwill-180-1560 
Intangible amortization included in cost of sales-19-14-14-37 
Research and development-101-98-64  
Selling, general and administrative-159-114-132  
Acquisition-related expenses   -5 
All other    -10
Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS)    -2
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS)    58
Total4172-179-1043


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Autonomous Systems (AxS)873    
Corporate248209207229 
Space, Cyber and Directed Energy (SCDE)0    
Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS) 16510392 
MacCready Works (MW) 51   
UnCrewed Systems (UxS) 591  439
All other  10887 
Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS)  225388489
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS)  181110 
High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Unmanned Aircraft Systems (HAPS)   8 
Total1,1211,016825914929


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$147.06 
Market Cap ($ Bil)7.3 
First Trading Date01/23/2007 
Distance from 52W High-64.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$160.97$210.67
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-8.6%-30.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility80.7%76.2%
Downside Capture254.06263.87
Upside Capture109.24155.24
Correlation (SPY)35.1%34.9%
AVAV Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta4.642.442.521.842.041.25
Up Beta4.613.152.932.191.471.17
Down Beta10.984.752.741.552.390.91
Up Capture334%83%150%95%205%317%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days10213161122372
Down Capture508%239%262%204%170%109%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days11213366129377

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV-36.4%76.3%-0.27-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.8%17.2%0.6331.4%
Equity (SPY)17.6%12.8%0.9934.5%
Gold (GLD)18.7%29.2%0.5914.0%
Commodities (DBC)47.9%20.4%1.81-1.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.6%13.6%0.226.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.9%43.8%-0.6824.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV7.7%58.3%0.35-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.0%17.6%0.5233.6%
Equity (SPY)12.4%17.2%0.5533.0%
Gold (GLD)18.5%18.8%0.8012.4%
Commodities (DBC)11.5%19.5%0.4610.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.9%-0.0720.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.9%52.6%0.3717.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV17.6%53.3%0.51-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.1%20.1%0.5737.6%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7136.8%
Gold (GLD)12.2%16.3%0.619.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%18.1%0.3814.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%20.7%0.1925.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.4%66.2%1.0316.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8142026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 7312026-15.2%
Average Daily Volume1.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.9 days

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/11/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/9/20264.4%  
6/29/202618.8%16.9%2.2%
3/10/2026-6.2%0.4%-19.8%
12/9/2025-12.9%-16.6%29.7%
9/9/20257.0%15.1%76.4%
6/24/202521.6%30.6%41.2%
3/4/2025-4.4%-12.6%-10.6%
12/4/2024-15.9%-21.6%-16.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121416
# Negative13108
Median Positive6.5%9.0%8.5%
Median Negative-6.6%-11.5%-13.5%
Max Positive27.9%30.6%76.4%
Max Negative-15.9%-21.6%-19.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/9/20264.4%  
6/29/202618.8%16.9%2.2%
3/10/2026-6.2%0.4%-19.8%
12/9/2025-12.9%-16.6%29.7%
9/9/20257.0%15.1%76.4%
6/24/202521.6%30.6%41.2%
3/4/2025-4.4%-12.6%-10.6%
12/4/2024-15.9%-21.6%-16.8%
9/4/2024-5.3%-5.2%3.6%
6/26/2024-7.7%-11.7%-9.8%
3/4/202427.9%22.4%12.4%
12/5/2023-10.2%-11.4%-16.2%
9/5/202320.7%18.8%12.5%
6/27/20234.9%9.0%4.4%
3/6/20234.2%2.6%16.0%
12/6/2022-3.2%1.0%1.2%
9/7/202214.9%9.0%-10.7%
6/28/2022-4.6%1.7%4.4%
3/3/20221.7%6.3%29.2%
12/7/20216.1%5.9%8.8%
9/8/2021-12.8%-16.7%-17.5%
6/29/2021-8.8%-10.7%-8.3%
3/9/20212.1%11.4%8.1%
12/8/2020-2.2%-7.6%2.5%
9/9/2020-6.6%-5.5%0.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121416
# Negative13108
Median Positive6.5%9.0%8.5%
Median Negative-6.6%-11.5%-13.5%
Max Positive27.9%30.6%76.4%
Max Negative-15.9%-21.6%-19.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
07/31/202609/10/202610-Q
04/30/202606/29/202610-K
01/31/202603/11/202610-Q
10/31/202512/10/202510-Q
07/31/202509/10/202510-Q
04/30/202506/25/202510-K
01/31/202503/05/202510-Q
10/31/202412/05/202410-Q
07/31/202409/05/202410-Q
04/30/202406/27/202410-K
01/31/202403/05/202410-Q
10/31/202312/06/202310-Q
07/31/202309/06/202310-Q
04/30/202306/28/202310-K
01/31/202303/06/202310-Q
10/31/202212/07/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
07/31/202609/10/202610-Q
04/30/202606/29/202610-K
01/31/202603/11/202610-Q
10/31/202512/10/202510-Q
07/31/202509/10/202510-Q
04/30/202506/25/202510-K
01/31/202503/05/202510-Q
10/31/202412/05/202410-Q
07/31/202409/05/202410-Q
04/30/202406/27/202410-K
01/31/202403/05/202410-Q
10/31/202312/06/202310-Q
07/31/202309/06/202310-Q
04/30/202306/28/202310-K
01/31/202303/06/202310-Q
10/31/202212/07/202210-Q
07/31/202209/08/202210-Q
04/30/202206/29/202210-K
01/31/202203/04/202210-Q
10/31/202112/08/202110-Q
07/31/202109/09/202110-Q
04/30/202106/29/202110-K
01/31/202103/10/202110-Q
10/31/202012/09/202010-Q
07/31/202009/10/202010-Q
04/30/202006/24/202010-K
01/31/202003/04/202010-Q
10/31/201912/04/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 9/10/2026

Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 9/9/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 RevenueReported2.12 Bil2.17 Bil2.23 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 2.17 Bil for 2027
2027 Adjusted EBITDAReported305.00 Mil315.00 Mil325.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 315.00 Mil for 2027
2027 Net IncomeReported10.00 Mil18.50 Mil27.00 Mil15.6% RaisedGuidance: 16.00 Mil for 2027
2027 Diluted EPSReported0.210.370.5315.6% RaisedGuidance: 0.32 for 2027
2027 Non-GAAP Diluted EPSReported3.023.183.340 AffirmedGuidance: 3.18 for 2027


Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 6/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 RevenueReported2.12 Bil2.17 Bil2.23 Bil14.5% Higher NewActual: 1.90 Bil for 2026
2027 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAReported305.00 Mil315.00 Mil325.00 Mil14.5% Higher NewActual: 275.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Net IncomeReported8.00 Mil16.00 Mil24.00 Mil-107.6% Higher NewActual: -209.50 Mil for 2026
2027 EPSReported0.160.320.48-107.5% Higher NewActual: -4.27 for 2026
2027 Non-GAAP EPSReported3.023.183.348.7% Higher NewActual: 2.92 for 2026

Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net LossReported-218.00 Mil-209.50 Mil-201.00 Mil516.2% LoweredGuidance: -34.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Loss per diluted shareReported-4.44-4.27-4.1523.4% LoweredGuidance: -0.69 for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP earnings per diluted shareReported2.752.923.1-15.8% LoweredGuidance: 3.48 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported1.85 Bil1.90 Bil1.95 Bil-3.8% LoweredGuidance: 1.98 Bil for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAReported265.00 Mil275.00 Mil285.00 Mil-11.3% LoweredGuidance: 310.00 Mil for 2026

Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net LossReported-38.00 Mil-34.00 Mil-30.00 Mil54.4% RaisedGuidance: -74.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Loss per diluted shareReported-0.76-0.69-0.61-56.6% RaisedGuidance: -1.58 for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP earnings per diluted shareReported3.43.483.55-4.8% LoweredGuidance: 3.65 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported1.95 Bil1.98 Bil2.00 Bil1.3% RaisedGuidance: 1.95 Bil for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAReported300.00 Mil310.00 Mil320.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 310.00 Mil for 2026

Insider Activity

Updated 8/19/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell8192026191.9825047,9959,311,606Form
2Shackley, Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8142026201.8620541,3811,592,272Form
3Shackley, Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell7162026143.0030042,9001,157,299Form
4Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell7162026143.0024835,4646,971,679Form
5Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell6162026174.4125043,6028,546,264Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell8192026191.9825047,9959,311,606Form
2Shackley, Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8142026201.8620541,3811,592,272Form
3Shackley, Brian CharlesSVP, Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell7162026143.0030042,9001,157,299Form
4Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell7162026143.0024835,4646,971,679Form
5Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell6162026174.4125043,6028,546,264Form
6Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell5182026162.3125040,5787,993,930Form
7Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell4202026197.2925049,3229,766,052Form
8Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell3172026212.5225053,13010,573,083Form
9Shackley, Brian CharlesChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell3172026212.5220042,5041,231,341Form
10McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell3112026224.5539688,9223,598,638Form
11Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell3032026300.0025075,00015,000,300Form
12Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell2202026275.0025068,75013,819,025Form
13Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell2172026254.95500127,47512,875,230Form
14McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell2112026267.60879235,2204,394,527Form
15Page, Stephen FSee FootnoteSell1162026377.621,000377,62019,258,998Form
16McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell1132026367.60999367,2326,359,848Form
17Shackley, Brian CharlesChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1022026250.9220050,1841,504,014Form
18McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell12122025249.37511127,4284,563,471Form
19McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell11122025331.46513170,0396,235,094Form
20McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell10142025399.74998398,9417,724,576Form
21Stevenson, Trace EPresident, Autonomous SystemsDirectSell10062025381.001,717654,1771,869,567Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 11, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Heard Capital LLC$132.0 Mil6.8%21Hold13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$8.0 Mil1.1%39TRIM -28.0%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
FFG Partners, LLC$8.9 Mil2.6%39ExitedDec 31, 202513F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$8.0 Mil1.1%39TRIM -28.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Heard Capital LLC$132.0 Mil6.8%21Hold13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$8.0 Mil1.1%39TRIM -28.0%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/10/2026